Climate System Observations and Prediction Experiment (COPE)

1. Climate System Observations and Prediction Experiment (COPE) Task Force for Seasonal Prediction

2. Climate Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES) Task Force for Seasonal Prediction

3. Scientific Direction and Structure of WCRP • Determine to What Extent Climate can be Predicted • Determine the Extent of Man’s Influence on Climate • WCRP Activities will Lead to the Prediction of the Total Physical Climate System Including an Assessment of What is and What is not Predictable

4. Four Major Programs • CLIVAR: Ocean in Climate • GEWEX: Water Cycle and Energy • CliC: Cryosphere in Climate • SPARC: Stratosphere in Climate • Two Major Modeling Activities • WGNE: Working Group on Numerical Experimentation • WGCM: Working Group on Coupled Modeling

5. Climate System Observations and Prediction Experiment (COPE) • Seamless Prediction of the Total Physical Climate System from Weeks Through Decades • Synthesizes Ongoing Observational and Modeling Activities of the all Relevant WCRP Components • Three Central Themes: • Describe Structure and Variability of the Total Climate System Through Modeling and Observational Studies • Assess the Predictability of the Total Climate System by Making Predictions • Understand Mechanisms and Uncertainty of Regional Climate Change Prediction

6. Task Force on Seasonal Prediction(Draft ToR) • Determine the Extent to which Seasonal Prediction of the Global Climate System is Possible with Currently Available Models and Data • Identify the Current Limitations of the Climate System Model and Observational Data Sets Used to Determine Seasonal Predictability • Develop a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Climate System Retrospective Seasonal Forecasting Experiments • Report to the JSC in March 2004

7. The Workshop(Honolulu, November 2003) • Develop a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Climate System Retrospective Seasonal Forecasting Experiments • Participation Across all of WCRP • Contributes to “Seamless Weekly-to-Decadal” COPE Modeling/Prediction Activities • Plan to Emphasize Synsthesis of WCRP Programs • Need to Include Effects of a Changing Climate • Science Development with Programs • Write Draft Plan at Workshop – No Homework

8. Hypothesis • There is currently untapped seasonal predictability due to interactions (and memory) among all the elements of the climate system (Stratosphere-Troposphere-Ocean-Land-Ice)

9. Interactive Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice Prediction Experiment • Best Possible Observationally Based Initialization of all the Components of Climate System • Six Month Lead Ensemble (10 member) Fully Interactive Predictions of the Climate System • Predictions Initialized Each Month of Each Year 1979-Present • Interactive Model: • Ocean – Open but interactive (e.g., slab mixed layer or GCM) • Atmosphere – Open but interactive, most likely a GCM • Land – Open but interactive, e.g. SSiB, Mosaic, BATS, CLM, Bucket … • Ice – Open but interactive (e.g., thermodynamic or dynamic)

10. Interactive Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice Prediction Experiment • Predictability Diagnostic (Example) • Limit of Predictability when the Forecast Ensemble Distribution same as Model Climate Distribution Free Running Model PDF Initial Condition (t=0) PDF t=limit of Predictability?

11. Interactive Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice Prediction Experiment • ENSO Mechanism Diagnostic (Example) • Recharge Oscillator vs. Delayed Oscillator • Role of Westerly Wind Bursts/Stochastic Forcing • Impact of AO on Seasonal Predictability • Regional Predictability • Local Land Surface Predictability • Extreme Events • Monsoons • Diurnal Cycle • Coupled Feedbacks • Intraseasonal Variability • Diagnostic Project Process

12. Interactive Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice Prediction Experiment • GEWEX: • Provides Guidance on How to Initialize Land Surface • Proposes/Implements Diagnostic Studies and Numerical Experiments • CliC: • Provides Guidance on How to Initialize Cryosphere • Proposes/Implements Diagnostic Studies and Numerical Experiments • CLIVAR: • Provides Guidance on How to Initialize Ocean • Proposes/Implements Diagnostic Studies and Numerical Experiments • SPARC: • Provides Guidance on How to Prescribe Atmospheric Composition • Provides Guidance on How to Initialize Stratosphere • Proposes/Implements Diagnostic Studies and Numerical Experiments

13. End of “Official” COPE/S-I Presentation

14. Attendance: • 1 CliC • 1 SPARC • 2 GEWEX • 14 CLIVAR Held with the CLIVAR Working Group on Seasonal-Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) COPE Task Force for Seasonal Prediction • Develop a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Climate System Retrospective Seasonal Forecasting Experiments • Participation Across all of WCRP • Contributes to “Seamless Weekly-to-Decadal” COPE Modeling/Prediction Activities • Plan to Emphasize Synsthesis of WCRP Programs • Need to Include Effects of a Changing Climate • Science Development with Programs • Write Draft Plan at Workshop – No Homework

15. Elements of the Agenda Current Status of Seasonal Prediction (S. Mason and S. Zebiak) Role of Oceans in Seasonal Prediction (CLIVAR) Atlantic Ocean and Seasonal Prediction (S.-P. Xie) Pacific Ocean and Seasonal Prediction (A. Rosati) Indian Ocean and Seasonal Prediction(N. H. Saji) Role of Cryosphere in Seasonal Prediction (CliC; J. H. Christensen) Seasonal Prediction at Meteo France (M. Deque) Seasonal Prediction in China (D. Yihui) NCEP Coupled Predictions and Assimilation (S. Nadiga) ECMWF Ensemble Prediction (R. Hagedorn) Seasonal Predictability of SMIP and SMIP/HFP (I.-S. Kang) Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts and Predictability (M. Sugi) Role of Land Surface in Seasonal Prediction (GEWEX; R. Koster and P. Dirmeyer) Impact of Soil Moisture on Seasonal Prediction (V. Kattsov) Role of Stratospheric Processes in Seasonal Prediction (SPARC; M. Baldwin) The Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C; J. Kinter) Discussion on Seasonal Prediction in a Changing Climate (Plenary Discussion) Developing a Coordinated Plan for Pan-WCRP Seasonal Prediction

16. Impressions • Many in CLIVAR see this COPES S-I proposal as superfluous – a variant on existing projects (e.g., SMIP, DEMETER, PROMISE…). • Proposers of COPES see CLIVAR as unable and ill-suited to bridge across WCRP projects. • COPES is proposed as the synthesis mechanism for WCRP, and the S-I project would bring together these parallel modeling efforts. Note: There exist other components to COPES (e.g., observations, climate change) that are not represented at this workshop.

17. CLIVAR 1995  WOCE 1990-2002 TOGA 1985-1994 GEWEX 1988  SPARC 1992 ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000 WGNE WGCM WGASF

18. CLIVAR’s Ptolemaic view of the Universe? WGCM WGASF WGNE

19. COPErnican Universe? COPES