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Forensic statistics: extreme numbers and the Birthday Problem

Forensic statistics: extreme numbers and the Birthday Problem. Bruce Weir bsweir@u.washington.edu. JonBenet Ramsey. DNA tests clear JonBenet Ramsey's family of her 1996 killing Results point to 'unexplained third party,' prosecutor says

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Forensic statistics: extreme numbers and the Birthday Problem

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  1. Forensic statistics: extreme numbers and the Birthday Problem Bruce Weir bsweir@u.washington.edu

  2. JonBenet Ramsey • DNA tests clear JonBenet Ramsey's family of her 1996 killing • Results point to 'unexplained third party,' prosecutor says • Last Updated: Wednesday, July 9, 2008 | 5:47 PM ET Comments22Recommend58 • CBC News • Prosecutors in Colorado have cleared the parents of JonBenet Ramsey, a child beauty queen shown in this undated photo, of involvement in her unsolved homicide in 1996. (Denver Post/Associated Press) • The parents of American child beauty queen JonBenet Ramsey have been cleared of involvement in her unsolved 1996 killing by new DNA tests, prosecutors in Colorado said Wednesday. • The tests point to an "unexplained third party," Boulder County district attorney Mary Lacy said. • Prosecutors don't consider any member of the Ramsey family to be a suspect, Lacy said as she released a copy of a letter to the Ramseys that also contained an apology for the failure to find the killer. • "We intend in the future to treat you as the victims of this crime, with the sympathy due you because of the horrific loss you suffered," the letter says.

  3. Starr Report

  4. World Trade Center

  5. Bertillonage

  6. Bertillonage

  7. Fingerprints

  8. Galton’s Fingerprints

  9. Fingerprint Extreme Numbers

  10. Uniqueness of Fingerprints

  11. People v. Collins

  12. Gregor Mendel

  13. Blood Groups

  14. Blood Group Exclusions

  15. Blood Groups of Children

  16. Blood Group Inclusions

  17. Types of Polymorphism

  18. First Immigration Case

  19. Aronson, 2007

  20. First Forensic Case

  21. Single-locus Probes

  22. Polymarker System

  23. Simpson case Polymarker profiles

  24. Schematic RFLP typing

  25. Simpson Case VNTR Profiles

  26. Snowball the Cat

  27. Menotti-Raymond, 1997

  28. Michaelis, Flanders & Wulff, 2008

  29. Russian Tsar Nicholas II

  30. Goodwin, Linacre & Hadi, 2007

  31. Goodwin, Linacre & Hadi, 2007

  32. Arizona Database Hits

  33. The Birthday Problem

  34. The Birthday Problem

  35. Expected Arizona Matches

  36. Familial Searching (UK) • Britain Times OnlineJuly 17, 2006 • Shoe rapist caught by new DNA technology • By Andrew Norfolk • A serial rapist who today admitted raping four women and trying to rape two others hid more than 100 pairs of stiletto-heeled shoes - some of them belonging to his victims - at his workplace, police said yesterday.

  37. Familial Searching (US)

  38. Familial Searching

  39. Cold Hits

  40. Cold Hits

  41. there is a very high probability that an animal has four legs If it is an elephant Pr(Four legs | Elephant) = 0.9999

  42. SO!! - there is a very high probability that an animal is an elephant if it has four legs. Pr(Elephant | Four legs) = 0.9999 ??? Pr(Four legs | Elephant) = 0.9999

  43. Examples about elephant’s legs may seem easy to follow - but it’s often not so easy in court proceedings.

  44. Prosecutor’s Fallacy

  45. Prosecutor’s Fallacy

  46. Prosecutor’s Fallacy

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