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Gerd Schwartz Expenditure Policy Division; Fiscal Affairs Department,

Fiscal Adjustment and Public Investment: Experiences from the New Member States and Some Preliminary Policy Lessons March 23, 2007. Gerd Schwartz Expenditure Policy Division; Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund gschwartz@imf.org. Background.

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Gerd Schwartz Expenditure Policy Division; Fiscal Affairs Department,

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  1. Fiscal Adjustment and Public Investment:Experiences from the New Member States and Some Preliminary Policy Lessons March 23, 2007 Gerd Schwartz Expenditure Policy Division; Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund gschwartz@imf.org

  2. Background • Challenges for fiscal policy in NMS • Support growth & convergence through higher investment • Implement structural reforms under Acquis Communitaire • Make room for increasing pressures from age-related expenditures • Carry out fiscal adjustment to comply with SGP targets and enter the Euro zone.

  3. Three key topics • Impact of fiscal adjustment on public investment • Infrastructure in NMS • Role of new financing mechanisms • EU Funds • PPPs

  4. Public investment: The silent victim of fiscal adjustment? • Sizable fiscal adjustment in some countries; volatile fiscal performance in others

  5. Public investment: The silent victim of fiscal adjustment? • Among NMS, during 1998-2005, there were 38 occurrences of improvements in the fiscal balance • Out of these 38 occurrences... • 68% cut in non-investment expenditure (2 percent of GDP) • 45% cut in investment expenditure (0.5 percent of GDP) • 50% increase in revenue (1 percent of GDP)

  6. Public investment: The silent victim of fiscal adjustment? • Overall, mixed experience. Investment even rose during fiscal adjustment in some countries

  7. Infrastructure: Where do NMS stand? • Significant progress since the start of the transition • But infrastructure still lags behind standards in OMS

  8. Infrastructure: How much investment is needed? • Few estimates available. Not easy to provide concrete policy guideline at the country level

  9. Infrastructure: Policy options to increase investment

  10. Infrastructure: Policy options to increase investment • Appropriate strategy country specific • Room to strengthen investment planning and efficiency • Contingent on fiscal and macroeconomic environment • More flexibility in countries with stronger fiscal positions • Need higher public savings in countries facing imbalances (e.g., current spending reforms)

  11. New available financing: Challenges to use EU Funds • Co-financing and additionality • Net fiscal impact could be negative • Recent estimate: fiscal drag of 0.5 percent of GDP1 • Absorption has been relatively slow • Crucial given increasing size of EU Funds • Changes in spending allocations can be expected 1/ Source: Rosenberg and Sierhej (forthcoming)

  12. New available financing: Challenges to use PPPs • PPPs can bring efficiency gains but also carry fiscal risks • How ready is the institutional framework in the NMS? • Public investment planning: Generally weak frameworks; lack of use of CBA and VfM analysis • Legal and institutional framework: Legal frameworks not tailored to PPPs; inadequate role of MoF in PPP process; insufficient technical experience • Fiscal accounting and reporting: Lax standards; non-transparent disclosure of fiscal implications of PPPs

  13. Concluding remarks • Overall mixed experience regarding fiscal adjustment and public investment • Upgrading infrastructure will require further efforts, but budgets will remain tight given SGP targets and Euro adoption goals • Making room for public investment not linked to definitions or accounting but to country specific policies based on sustainable macroeconomic frameworks • Scope to strengthen efficiency of spending

  14. Concluding remarks • New financing presents opportunities and challenges • EU Funds: Net fiscal impact could be negative; absorption rates remain low • PPPs: Need to strengthen PPP frameworks to capitalize on efficiency gains and manage fiscal risks

  15. Thank you Gerd Schwartz gschwartz@imf.org +1-202-623-7308 Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.

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