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Telepresence: An Umbrella Research Topic

Explore the concept of telepresence and its potential impact on various fields. This research topic covers Microsoft Research's initiative on telepresence, the benefits of recording everything we see and hear, and the architecture revolution of processing moving to transducers.

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Telepresence: An Umbrella Research Topic

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  1. Telepresence: An Umbrella Research Topic Jim Gray Microsoft Research Gray@Microsoft.com http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/

  2. NSF: Nerve Center of ScienceIf it’s not broke, don’t fix it.But…. • US Science is the engine of progressBUT….. • Best and brightest are spending increasing time fundraising • Seems excessive to me. • Venture capital community is richer and more generous than NSF

  3. Outline (ambitious!) • Microsoft Research (census) • Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) • Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence • What if you could record everything you see & hear? • The architecture revolution: processing moves to transducers

  4. Microsoft Research -- 1991 • Founded in 1991 • Goal: pursue strategic technologies for Microsoft • Original research groups: • Natural Language Processing • Operating Systems • Programming Languages • Overall size < 20 at the end of 1992

  5. Microsoft Research -- 1998 • 280 Researchers in 25 areas • Operating systems to Statistical Physics • Research lab locations: • Redmond, Cambridge, San Francisco • Internationally recognized research teams • Hundreds of publications, presentations • Leadership roles in professional societies, journals, conferences

  6. MS Research Areas • Operating systems, languages, compilers, virtual machines, networking, wireless computing, fault-tolerance, large scale servers, security • Natural language, speech, vision, graphics, decision theory, information retrieval, UI, collaboration, statistics, signal processing • Cryptography, statistical physics and discrete mathematics

  7. Growing Fast • Grew 4x from ‘94 to ‘97 • Decided in ‘97 to grow by a 3x in 3 years • 200 in FY97 => 600 in FY00, primarily in Redmond • Major impact on MS products • Virtually all MS products shipped today use technology from MS Research • Critical role in MS growth • Pioneering research in software that allows computers to see, hear, speak and understand

  8. Microsoft Research Philosophy • University organizational model • Flat structure, critical mass groups • Open research environment • Aggressive publication of research results in literature and on world wide web • Frequent visitors, daily seminars • Over 70 visiting professors and interns in 1997 • Over 110 visiting researchers in 1998

  9. Some Key Senior Researchers • Systems • Rick Rashid, Butler Lampson, Gordon Bell • Anoop Gupta, Roger Needham, Chuck Thacker • Databases & Data Mining • David Lomet, Jim Gray, Usama Fayyad • Graphics • Jim Kajiya, Jim Blinn, Alvy Ray Smith, Michael Cohen • Speech & Language • Karen Jensen, George Heidorn, X.D. Huang, Alex Acero, Hsiao-Wuen Hon, Scott Meredith

  10. Some Key Senior Researchers • UI Design, Intelligent Systems, IR • George Robertson, Linda Stone, Susan Dumais, David Heckerman, Eric Horvitz, Jack Breese • Computer Vision & Signal Processing • Steve Shafer, Rick Szeliski, P. Anandan, Rico Malvar • Cryptography & Theory • Yacov Yacobi, Jennifer Chayes, Christian Borg, Michael Freedman • Languages & Compilers • Daniel Weise, Chris Fraser, Amitabh Srivastava, Luca Cardelli, David Hanson, Charles Simonyi, Todd Proebsting

  11. Microsoft Research • 1997 BusinessWeek Poll of Academia: • Voted #7 lab (overall) in Computer Science • Voted #3 industrial research lab (after Bell Labs and IBM Research) • Voted #2 most desirable lab to work (after Stanford)

  12. Outline (ambitious!) • Microsoft Research (census) • Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) • Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence • What if you could record everything you see & hear? • The architecture revolution: processing moves to transducers

  13. Gordon Bell on Tele Presentations http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

  14. Motivation:Telepresentations • Presenter and/or audience telepresent • NOT: meeting or collaboration settings • Forget the nasty social issues! Mostly one-way

  15. TelepresentationElements • Slides • Audio • Video • Script, text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

  16. Telepresentations:The Essentials • Slide and audio a must • Add some video (low quality) to make us feel good • Storage and transmission costs low

  17. Telepresentations:The Killer App • Increased attendance & lower travel costs • Practical and low-cost NOW • e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97

  18. Today’sExperiment • Would you like to pause, rewind, browse? • Do you wish you could have seen this • At home? • At another time? • How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?

  19. Outline (ambitious!) • Microsoft Research (census) • Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) • Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence • What if you could record everything you see & hear? • The architecture revolution: processing moves to transducers

  20. Changing role of computation • Past: Computers for: • computing (Cray) • business data processing (IBM) • “document” creation (PC) • Future: Computers for: • understanding & learning • communicating • consuming & entertaining • Requires new User Interface to machines

  21. Flows

  22. Making “Flows” a Reality • Computer Graphics • Creating realistic looking environments, people • Computer Vision • Analyzing posture, gaze, gestures • Speech input/output • Natural Language • Analysis, IR • Implicit requests for information

  23. Building life-like human characters

  24. Area of motion Live video H flow V flow Recognizing gestures

  25. Generating life-like speech from textual data • Data-driven stochastic speech • Natural sounding • Rapid, automatic customizability • Examples • Synthetic voice w/ transplanted speech contours

  26. Artificial singing • AT&T Voder, 1962, by Homer Dudley • Daisy (Inspiration for HAL’s voice in 2001) • Microsoft Research Whistler, 1997 • Scarborough Fair

  27. Analyzing language • Language recognition shipped in Word 97 • General purpose text-critiquing, summarization, Japanese word-breaking

  28. Inside The Office Grammar Checker

  29. Understanding language: MindNet • A huge language knowledge base • Automatically created from dictionaries • Words (nodes) linked by relationships • Millions of links • Recently added (Encarta) encyclopedia knowledge

  30. MindNet -- “Going to the birds” supply poultry clean smooth keep duck meat preen quack plant chatter animal creature bird sound feather gaggle goose limb peck Is_a claw beak hawk strike fly leg turtle catch arm bill opening face mouth chicken Is_a Typ_obj Purpose Is_a Quesp Typ_0bj_of hen Is_a Is_a Typ_obj Purpose Cause Typ_subj Is_a egg Means Not_is_a Typ_subj Is_a Is_a Is_a Is_a Is_a make Typ_obj Part Is_a Is_a wing Is_a Is_a Typ_subj_of Means Is_a Is_a Part Part_of Is_a Typ_obj Typ_subj_of Is_a Is_a Typ_subj Locn_of Is_a

  31. Changing balance between user & software systems • Yesterday: • Applications were single programs running in isolation • Users used to (more or less) understand systems that they used • Today: • Componentized applications operate in concert • Sophisticated users understand only small percentage of systems they use

  32. Tomorrow’s Systems and Applications • Users will not be able to predict • where computations will be performed, • when they will be performed or • by what software components • Gap between system capabilities and user understanding will grow to the point that the only way user will be able to use system is through assisting agents

  33. Examples of user agents & implicit actions • Lumiere (Office 97) • Monitoring user and program events to provide user help and assistance • Implicit queries • Inferring information needs from browsing • Lookout/SpamKiller • Monitoring mail activity to auto-categorize it

  34. User Modeling • Models of a user’s informational goals • User’s query (when available…) • User’s background • Acute and long-term search activity • Acute actions with objects and documents • Program data structures • Explicit and implicit information access and display

  35. Outline (ambitious!) • Microsoft Research (census) • Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) • Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence • What if you could record everything you see & hear? • The architecture revolution: processing moves to transducers

  36. Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta Some Tera-Byte Databases • The Web: 1 TB of HTML • TerraServer 1 TB of images • Several other 1 TB (file) servers • Hotmail: 7 TB of email • Sloan Digital Sky Survey: 40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked • EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week) • 15 PB by 2007 • Federal Clearing house: images of checks • 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history) • Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program • 10 Exabytes (???!!)

  37. A letter Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta A novel Info Capture A Movie • You can record everything you see or hear or read. • What would you do with it? • How would you organize & analyze it? Library of Congress (text) LoC (image) All Disks Video 8 PB per lifetime (10GBph) Audio 30 TB (10KBps) Read or write: 8 GB (words) See: http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html All Tapes

  38. Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta A letter A novel A Movie Library of Congress (text) LoC (image) LoC (sound + cinima) All Photos All Disks All Tapes All Information!

  39. Michael Lesk’s Pointswww.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html • Soon everything can be recorded and kept • Most data will never be seen by humans • Precious Resource: Human attention Auto-Summarization Auto-Searchwill be a key enabling technology.

  40. Outline (ambitious!) • Microsoft Research (census) • Tele-Presentations (Gordon Bell, Jim Gemmell) • Microsoft Research initiative on Telepresence • What if you could record everything you see & hear? • The architecture revolution: processing moves to transducers

  41. Put Everything in Future (Disk) Controllers(it’s not “if”, it’s “when?”)Acknowledgements:Dave Patterson explained this to me a year agoKim KeetonErik RiedelCatharine Van Ingen Helped me sharpen these arguments

  42. Remember Your Roots

  43. Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta Technology Drivers: Disks • Disks on track • 100x in 10 years 2 TB 3.5” drive • Shrink to 1” is 200GB • Disk replaces tape? • Disk is super computer!

  44. Data GravityProcessing Moves to Transducers • Move Processing to data sources • Move to where the power (and sheet metal) is • Processor in • Modem • Display • Microphones (speech recognition) & cameras (vision) • Storage: Data storage and analysis

  45. It’s Already True of PrintersPeripheral = CyberBrick • You buy a printer • You get a • several network interfaces • A Postscript engine • cpu, • memory, • software, • a spooler (soon) • and… a print engine.

  46. All Device Controllers will be Cray 1’s Central Processor & Memory • TODAY • Disk controller is 10 mips risc engine with 2MB DRAM • NIC is similar power • SOON • Will become 100 mips systems with 100 MB DRAM. • They are nodes in a federation(can run Oracle on NT in disk controller). • Advantages • Uniform programming model • Great tools • Security • economics (CyberBricks) • Move computation to data (minimize traffic) Tera Byte Backplane

  47. Basic Argument for x-Disks • Future disk controller is a super-computer. • 1 bips processor • 128 MB dram • 100 GB disk plus one arm • Connects to SAN via high-level protocols • RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,…. • Commands are RPCs • Management, security,…. • Services file/web/db/… requests • Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev environment • Apps in disk saves data movement • need programming environment in controller

  48. The Slippery Slope Nothing = Sector Server • If you add function to server • Then you add more function to server • Function gravitates to data. Something = Fixed App Server Everything = App Server

  49. Why Not a Sector Server?(let’s get physical!) • Good idea, that’s what we have today. • But • cache added for performance • Sector remap added for fault tolerance • error reporting and diagnostics added • SCSI commends (reserve,.. are growing) • Sharing problematic (space mgmt, security,…) • Slipping down the slope to a 2-D block server

  50. Why Not a 1-D Block Server?Put A LITTLE on the Disk Server • Tried and true design • HSC - VAX cluster • EMC • IBM Sysplex (3980?) • But look inside • Has a cache • Has space management • Has error reporting & management • Has RAID 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 50,… • Has locking • Has remote replication • Has an OS • Security is problematic • Low-level interface moves too many bytes

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