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Learn about the recent evolution of the South American Monsoon System, including current conditions and predictions. Explore rainfall anomalies over the last 7 and 30 days and the impact on regions like Brazil, Argentina, and Bolivia.
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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 01 April 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons
Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology
Highlights • Long-term rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin and the Brazilian Plateau. • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of southern Brazil, Uruguay, eastern Argentina, southern Chile, Paraguay, northern Bolivia, western Ecuador and eastern Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern and northwestern Brazil, northern Peru and central Colombia. • For Days 1-7 (01 – 07 April 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of northwestern South America, southern Brazil, Uruguay and central Argentina. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northeastern Brazil, Paraguay, northern Argentina and Bolivia.
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of southern Brazil, Uruguay, eastern Argentina, southern Chile, Paraguay, northern Bolivia, western Ecuador and eastern Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern and northwestern Brazil, northern Peru and central Colombia.
Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of Brazil, Uruguay, central Argentina, Bolivia and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of eastern Brazil, northern Argentina and Paraguay.
BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin (> 150 mm), the Brazilian Plateau (> 300 mm).
Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above-average across much of the tropical Pacific. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 24 – 30 Mar 2019, anomalous cyclonic flow (center noted by red C) was observed off the southeast coast of Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over northwestern South America and southern Brazil, and anomalous rising motion was observed across the central South America. C • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.
925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 24 – 30 Mar 2019, above-average temperature was seen over northeastern and southern Brazil and below-average temperature over eastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 01 April 2019–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 01 April 2019– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.
NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (01 – 07 April 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of northwestern South America, southern Brazil, Uruguay and central Argentina. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northeastern Brazil, Paraguay, northern Argentina and Bolivia. • For Days 8-14 (08 – 14 April 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over portions of central and southern Brazil, Uruguay, southern Bolivia, southern Peru, southern Ecuador and western Colombia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for much of northern Brazil, Paraguay, northeastern Peru and northern Ecuador.
ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE
