Financial Stability Report 2005:2

1. Financial Stability Report 2005:2 2005-11-23

2. Summary of the stability assessment

3. Lending to general public in the major banks’, sectoral breakdownDecember 2004 Source: Bank reports.

4. CHAPTER 1Financial markets

5. Stock market indicesIndex: September 2002 = 100 Figure 1:1 Source: EcoWin.

6. Expected profitsPercentage increase from 2004 Figure 1:2 Source: EcoWin.

7. Implied stock-market volatilityIndex Figure 1:3 Source: Bloomberg.

8. Ten-year government bond yieldsPer cent Figure 1:4 Sources: EcoWin.

9. Corporate bond spreads in the USAPercentage points Figure 1:5 Sources: EcoWin, Federal Reserve Board and Merrill Lynch.

10. Corporate bond spreads in EuropePercentage points Figure 1:6 Sources: J. P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch.

11. Credit default swap spreadar Figure 1:7 Source: Bloomberg.

12. Emerging market bond spreadsPercentage points Figure 1:8 Source: Bloomberg.

13. Prices for oil and other commoditiesUSD and index: February 2000 = 100 Figure 1:9 Sources: Bloomberg and EcoWin.

14. CHAPTER 2The Swedish banks’ borrowers

15. Non-financial companies borrowing and bank depositsTwelve-month change, moving three-month average Figure 2:1 Source: The Riksbank.

16. Ratio of debt to total assets in listed companiesPer cent of all listed companies Figure 2:2 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank.

17. Cover for interest expenditure and debt in small and large companiesRatio Figure 2:3 Sources: UC AB and the Riksbank.

18. Breakdown of returns on equity in listed companiesPer cent of all listed companies Figure 2:4 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank.

19. Number of corporate defaults by company size Figure 2:5 Source: Statistics Sweden.

20. Corporate defaults brokendown by industryPercentage 12-month change, moving 12-month average Figure 2:6 Source: Statistics Sweden.

21. Expected default frequency (EDF) by industry for listed non-financial companiesPer cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:7 Sources: Moody’s KMV.

22. Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed non-financial companiesPer cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:8 Sources: Moody’s KMV.

23. Cover for interest expenditure and debt for property companiesRatio Figure 2:9 Source: The Riksbank.

24. Expected default frequency (EDF) for listed property companiesPer cent (logarithmic scale) Figure 2:10 Source: Moody´s KMV.

25. Real rents for office premises in central locationsIndex 1981 = 100 Figure B1 Sources: NewSec AB and the Riksbank.

26. Vacancy rates for office premises in central locationsPer cent Figure B2 Sources: NewSec AB and the Riksbank.

27. Average direct return required for office premises in central locationsPer cent Figure B3 Sources: Newsec AB, Jones Lang LaSalle and EcoWin.

28. Changes in metropolitan and national employmentPer cent Figure B4 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

29. Household borrowing by type of institutionPercentage 12-month change Figure 2:11 Source: The Riksbank.

30. Household debt and house pricesIndex 1986 = 100 Figure 2:12 Source: Statistics Sweden.

31. Household debt and post-tax interestexpenditure as percentages of disposable incomePer cent Figure 2:13 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

32. Household wealthSEK billion Figure 2:14 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

33. Length of fixed interest periods for house mortgage loansPer cent of total stock Figure 2:15 Source: The Riksbank.

34. CHAPTER 3Developments in the banks

35. Implied volatility of bank equityPer cent, moving 10-day average Figure 3:1 Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank.

36. Profit before loan losses and net loan losses in the major banksFour-quarter figures. SEK billion, 2005 prices Figure 3:2 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.

37. Post-tax return on equity in the majorbanks and the market’s required returnPer cent Figure 3:3 Sources: Bank reports, Stockholmsbörsen and the Riksbank.

38. Pre-tax return on equity Figure 3:4 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.

39. Post-tax return on equityPer cent Figure 3:5 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.

40. Net interest margin and spreads for the major banks on deposits, bank loans and mortgage loans in SwedenPer cent, moving 4-quarter average Figure 3:6 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.

41. Net commission income in the majorbanks and Nordic stock-markets indexSEK million and index Figure 3:7 Sources: Bank reports, EcoWin, and the Riksbank.

42. Cost efficiency of the major banksPer cent Figure 3:8 Sources: Bank reports, EcoWin and the Riksbank.

43. Ratios of costs and income to assetsIndex: Handelsbanken = 100 Figure 3:9 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.

44. Loan stocks in relation to GDPPer cent Figure B5 Source: The Riksbank.

45. Potential growth of the major banks’lending in the Baltic statesPer cent Figure R6 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.

46. Stock of loans to the generalpublic in Sweden and abroadIndex: 2004 Q3 = 100 Figure 3:10 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank.

47. Lending by credit institutions to companies in SwedenPercentage 12-month change, moving 3-month average Figure 3:11 Source: The Riksbank.

48. Lending by credit institutions to households in SwedenÅrlig Per centuell förändring Figure 3:12 Source: The Riksbank.

49. Breakdown of time spent on loan screeningPer cent Figure B7 Source: The Riksbank.

50. Types of collateral in loan portfoliosPer cent Figure B8 Source: The Riksbank.