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Lecture 2 Weather forecasting

Explore how fractals define atmospheric phenomena and how predictive meteorology uses observations and theory to understand and forecast weather events.

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Lecture 2 Weather forecasting

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  1. Lecture 2Weather forecasting

  2. Atmospheric Phenomena as Fractals we sea that there appears to be a continuum of scales in space and in time for which we observe atmospheric phenomena. Atmospheric phenomena, as represented by the wind, pressure, redar-echo, or cloud fields, are fractals.

  3. Fractals are geometric shapes that have structure at all scales.

  4. Euclidean lines, for example, do not form fractals, because they do not have structure at all scales. Below some scale figures composed of Euclidean lines are always just lines.

  5. The role of observations and theory Can we could classified phenomena in terms of physical characteristics? We have two ways for detect weather phenomena, by synoptic or dynamic meteorology.

  6. Synoptic Meteorology is largely based upon observations.on the other hand ;Dynamic meteorology is based on the acceptance of physical laws and deductions about atmospheric behavior based upon those laws.

  7. We can first observe a phenomenon and describe its characteristics, then analyze it to learn why it forms and why it behaves as it does, and ultimately to predict its behavior.

  8. Orwe can predict its existence based upon physical law. and then search for it in nature

  9. For example, the extratropical cyclone was first observed, then analyzed, and much later numerically predicted. On other hand, Gravity waves were first discussed as solotions to a set of dynamical equations, and later were sought observationally.

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