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Heather Price, Ph.D Program on Climate Change University of Washington

Global Climate Change. Heather Price, Ph.D Program on Climate Change University of Washington. The science. Thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Major peer reviewed reports in 1990, 1996, 2001, 2007, 2013 Conclusions (IPCC 2014):

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Heather Price, Ph.D Program on Climate Change University of Washington

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  1. Global Climate Change Heather Price, Ph.D Program on Climate Change University of Washington

  2. The science • Thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • Major peer reviewed reports in 1990, 1996, 2001, 2007, 2013 • Conclusions (IPCC 2014): • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.” • “Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.” • “It is extremely likely (95-100% probability) that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951-2010.”

  3. Temperature and CO2 vary together over glacial cycles Temperature CO2 Source: Cuffey and Vimeux, Nature 412:523, 2001.

  4. For more than 800,000 years CO2 has not gone above this line. Now we are here. http://facweb.northseattle.edu/hprice/CHEM161/earth_temperature_timeline.png

  5. CO2 has increased 43% since the 1800s 406 ppm 2018 Charles Keeling

  6. Ralph Keeling CH4 + 2O2 CO2 + 2H2O

  7. World Resources Institute Carbon Emissions Map http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/05/history-carbon-dioxide-emissions

  8. How has the climate already changed: • The 11 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998 (10 of these since 2002). • Average global temperature has risen about 2.3 °F (1.3 °C) since 1880 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/climate-trends-continue-to-break-records

  9. Where has the world warmed? Greatest warming is occurring in Polar regions: Alaska, Greenland, Antarctica http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20140121/

  10. Arctic ice thickness is down by 40%. • Sea ice data acquired from submarines 1993-1997 and 1958-1976. • Mean ice thickness has decreased by 1.3 meters, from 3.1 to 1.6 meters. Source: D.A. Rothrock, Y.Yu and G.A. Maykut, Thinning of the Arctic sea-ice cover, University of Washington, Seattle, 1999.

  11. North Pole Sea Ice Extent Then and 2017

  12. South Cascade glacier retreated dramatically in the 20th century 1928 Courtesy of the USGS glacier group 2000

  13. Spruce Forests killed by Pine Beetle Kenai Peninsula, Alaska:70 to 80 percent of the trees have died

  14. Ask the scientists: 1. Have mean global temperatures risen compared to pre-1800s levels? 2. Has human activity been a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures? • 90 percent of scientists said yes to the first question and 82 percent said yes to the second • 97 percent of climate scientists said yes to both questions • 47 percent of petroleum geologists said yes to the second question

  15. Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence All Climate Influences

  16. What do scientists predict for the future: • By 2050 scientists expect 1 degree Celsius (2 degrees F) increase • By 2100, climate models predict another 1.5-6 degree Celsius increase (3-11 degree F) • Climate models (2013) predict an additional 0.5-1.4 meter sea level rise by 2100 • Sea level rise of 1 meter would endanger 90% of Japan’s sandy beaches and much of Southern Florida, flooding Miami and the entire Everglades.

  17. The main Northwest impact: less snow April 1 Columbia Basin Snow Extent

  18. Impacts of hydrologic (water) changes • Less snow, earlier melt means less water in summer • irrigation • urban uses • fisheries protection • energy production • More water in winter • energy production • flooding Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, OR.

  19. China The Bad News: • 80 % of energy from Coal • 16 of the worlds 20 most polluted cities • Respiratory illness is #1 killer in China • Pollution transports to Japan and beyond The Good News: • Stronger fuel efficiency standards than USA: many US SUV’s will not be legal in China 2008 • National law: at least 10% power from renewable energy by 2020 (same proposal was rejected by USA Congress last month)

  20. Solar output varies and is currently (2017) headed towards a minimum in its 11 year cycle Figure courtesy of NASA Goddard, J. Hansen, http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/YoungPeople/

  21. Outline • Observed changes in atmospheric composition • Understanding changes in global average temperature • Global consequences of climate changes • Some issues here in the Northwest-loss of snow pack • Policy dimensions… Why the ancient city of Kyoto is a dirty word in middle America.

  22. Mt Kilimanjaro in 1912 By 2000 Kilimanjaro: 82% of its ice had melted and is projected will be gone by 2022 Kilimanjaro, 2009

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