Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 8 March 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights • Australia: Heavy rain brought flooding across southern Queensland, while severe thunderstorms raced across New South Wales and Victoria. The GFS forecasts more scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across Australia’s northeastern quadrant during the upcoming week. • Southern Africa:Light showers fell across corn growing regions, with accumulations generally near- to below-average. The GFS forecasts drier than average conditions during the upcoming week. • South America: Heavy rain fell across east-central Brazil, areas that have been trending dry in recent weeks. Some precipitation in this region is expected to linger into the upcoming week, but the GFS forecasts drier weather across most of Brazil. Light showers are forecast to continue across Argentina.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010. During the last 4 weeks (7 Feb – 6 Mar 2010), equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 170°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The MJO Index indicates a signal in phases 7 and 8 with little or non-steady eastward movement, which is consistent with El Nino conditions. The GFS MJO index forecasts indicate that the signal will remain generally in phases 7 and 8 with no eastward propagation. El Nino conditions continue to contribute to the strong amplitude and non-steady behavior of the MJO index forecast. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR Near-average rains fell across South Africa’s western and central maize triangle, but below-average rainfall was observed throughout southern Africa’s eastern croplands (brown oval), most notably in portions of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and northern South Africa. Above-average long-term precipitation in the Uruguay and Parana River basins (blue oval) contrasted with much below-average rainfall in eastern and central Brazil (brown oval). Below average moisture continues across most of northern and northwestern South America, as well as northern and western Argentina. In Australia, near- to above-average rainfall was observed over the previous 3 months in the eastern states, while below-average monsoon rains were observed across Western Australia. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation A C A C A C A Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2010, enhanced an anomalous 200-hPa anticyclonic circulation center was located near Queensland, Australia, with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over Western Australia, inducing a strong upper level northwesterly flow over central Australia. • At the low levels of the atmosphere, below-normal temperatures were observed across central Australia.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2010, very strong anomalous rising motion (negative omega, blue oval top panel) corresponded to enhanced convection and significant rainfall over east-central Australia, while enhanced sinking motion (positive omega, brown oval top panel) contributed to suppressed convection across western Australia, South Africa, and portions of central South America. Heavy thunderstorms were observed over eastern Brazil, however.

9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast • Tropical Cyclone Laurence

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, powerful storms dumped very heavy rain across southern Queensland, causing flooding and filling rivers and reservoirs, with one south-central Queensland station reporting 348mm of rainfall for the week. Severe weather pushed southward into New South Wales and Victoria, where widespread hail (as large as 10cm) was reported in Melbourne, causing damage including the Docklands Stadium roof.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 2 weeks, a potent monsoon low triggered unusually heavy rain along a swath through northern and central Northern Territory and across southern Queensland. Above-average rainfall also blanketed much of New South Wales and northern Victoria.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the previous 30 days, heavy rainfall across much of eastern Australia contrasted with drier than average conditions in Western Australia, particularly along the northern shoreline.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series across Australia’s summer croplands show the widespread and significant rainfall observed during the previous month, with especially heavy rain observed in southern Queensland (top left panel).

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly • During 28 Feb – 6 Mar 2010, below average temperatures were observed across interior Australia with hot weather observed across the western and northern coastal areas.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (8 – 14 March 2010), scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue across northern and northeastern Australia, with accumulations near average across most locations. Drier than average weather is expected to continue along Western Australia’s northern coastline.

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (15 - 21 March 2010), the GFS predicts continued wet weather across southern Queensland, with moderate to heavy rain hugging Australia’s northeastern coasline.

17. Forecast from 22 Feb 2010 Valid 1 – 7 Mar 2010 Forecast from 1 Mar 2010 Valid 1 – 7 Mar Feb 2010 Observed 1 – 7 Mar 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Australia

18. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • During the last 7 days, shower activity decreased across Mozambique, with most areas receiving light to moderate rainfall, generally near to below-average.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, above-average rain in Mozambique contrasted with below-average moisture further south in eastern South Africa.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, rainfall was generally below average in southern Africa, though heavy rain fell across central Mozambique.

22. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series depict the continued drier than average conditions across most of southern Africa.

23. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Temperatures across southern Africa were near normal during the previous 7 days, with maximums generally in the upper 20s – low 30s°C across South Africa’s maize triangle.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (8 – 14 March 2010), the GFS forecasts drier than average conditions across most corn growing regions in southern Africa.

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 Mar 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (15 – 21 March 2010), the GFS forecasts scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across southern African croplands, with most regions receiving near average precipitation over the period.

26. Forecast from 22 Feb 2010 Valid 1 – 7 Mar 2010 Forecast from 1 Mar 2010 Valid 1 – 7 Mar 2010 Observed 1 – 7 Mar 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Southern Africa

27. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Showers and thunderstorms overspread east central Brazil, from eastern Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais and northward into Bahia and Tocantins. Elsewhere, precipitation accumulations were generally below average for the week. • In Argentina, showers extended southward through northern and central states, with below-average rainfall observed across southern Cordoba, La Pampa, northern Buenos Aires, and across the extreme northeastern and northwestern states. Brazil Argentina

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly • In Brazil, above-average rainfall was observed across east-central farmlands, with below-average accumulations elsewhere. • Above average rainfall swept through northwestern and north-central Argentina, with near to below-average rainfall reported elsewhere, including southern Cordoba and western Buenos Aires. Brazil Argentina

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly • Across Brazil, aside from recent wetness, generally below-average rainfall fell across much of eastern and northern states, with thunderstorms limited to areas including and west of Mato Grosso. • In Argentina, most farmlands received near to above-average rainfall, with small dry pockets remaining in southern Cordoba and extreme northeastern states. Brazil Argentina

31. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • Time series across central Brazil depict the continuation of near average to drier than average rainfall. • Above average rainfall was observed in north central Argentina, while southern Brazil’s accumulations are near average following 1.5 weeks of dry weather.

32. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Temperatures were generally above-normal across most of northern South America during the previous 7 days, with maximum temperatures topping 35°C in parts of Mato Grosso, and Goias.

33. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Temperatures were above-normal across Argentina during the previous week.

34. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 March 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly • For Days 1-7 (8 – 14 March 2010), a narrow band of rainfall is forecast to linger across Mato Grosso through Minas Gerais, though dry weather is expected elsewhere. Light showers are predicted across eastern and central Argentina.

35. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 8 March 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly • For Days 8-14 (15 – 21 March 2010), dry weather is expected to continue across northeastern Brazil, with showers returning to the south. In Argentina, rainfall is expected across eastern farmlands.

36. Forecast from 22 Feb 2010 Valid 1 – 7 Mar 2010 Forecast from 1 Mar 2010 Valid 1 – 7 Mar 2010 Observed 1 – 7 Mar 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: South America

37. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information