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London 2062- housing . © bere: architects. Pelsmakers Sofie. © bere: architects. 50 years from now,…. I should be . I should be . 87 years old. because . because . Most women in my family live in their 90 ’ s . 97 . But will I?. But will I?. Probably not,…. Because. Because
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London 2062- housing © bere: architects
PelsmakersSofie © bere: architects
I should be 87 years old
because Most women in my family live in their 90’s
But will I? Probably not,…
Because by 2050
Because by 2050 London will
Why? • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise
Why? • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050
Why? • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings
Why? • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings • Lack of incentives means they both contribute to CO2 emissions and are ill-adapted to London’s changing climate
Why? • NO global effort to reduce carbon emissions so unabated climate change:2-6ºC temperature rise • UK failed to meet its 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 • ≈75% of buildings which exist today will still exist in 2050; of which 26 million dwellings • Lack of incentives means they both contribute to CO2 emissions and are ill-adapted to London’s changing climate • Heat-related deaths; 2000 in summer 2003 in UK
How hot? (2080) • Summers to be 4.5ºC warmer
How hot? (2080) © The Environmental Design Pocketbook
What else? (2080) Sea level rise: 50-90cm
What else? (2080) Sea level rise: 50-90cm up to 26%decrease in summer rain
What else? (2080) Sea level rise: 50-90cm up to 26%decrease in summer rain Up to 32% increase in winter rain
impact? 1. Increased seasonal water shortages
impact? 1. Increased seasonal water shortages 2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods
impact? 1. Increased seasonal water shortages 2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods 3. Decreased winter fuel-poverty
impact? 1. Increased seasonal water shortages 2. Increased risk of flooding + localized flash floods 3. Decreased winter fuel-poverty 4. Increased summer ‘cooling-poverty’ and health related issues (particularly the elderly at risk)
avoidable? Yes!
avoidable? But we have to future-proof today.
because Although these conditions are new to London, we can borrow from other climates in the world (Mediterranean, Netherlands)
How? By choosing housing interventions which both mitigate and adapt to climate change
How? 5 key interventions
1. insulate Going to zero carbon
1. insulate Insulation & increased airtightness reduce winter heat loss but also summer heat gains. Going to zero carbon
1. insulate Insulate existing housing stock to high standards Going to zero carbon
1. insulate Passivhaus/EnerPHit or similar Going to zero carbon
Spot the Passivhaus? © bere: architects
1. insulate We need to think about external insulation (retains thermal mass, reduces thermal bridging & other risks) Going to zero carbon
Going to zero carbon © Anne Thorne Architects
Going to zero carbon © Anne Thorne Architects
depth of insulation is substantial Going to zero carbon © Anne Thorne Architects