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Investigating the Hockey Stick Climate Model

Investigating the Hockey Stick Climate Model. EAS 4803- Dr. Wang 4/22/08 Robert Binion. Problem. Michael Mann, et al. have proposed the hockey stick temperature model, which suggests that world temperatures have significantly increased during the twentieth century

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Investigating the Hockey Stick Climate Model

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  1. Investigating the Hockey Stick Climate Model EAS 4803- Dr. Wang 4/22/08 Robert Binion

  2. Problem • Michael Mann, et al. have proposed the hockey stick temperature model, which suggests that world temperatures have significantly increased during the twentieth century • I sought to analyze temperature data to determine the validity of his assertion that temperatures have significantly increased

  3. Data • My data set includes normalized temperature data for the years 1391-1991 for both the northern and southern hemispheres as compiled by P.D. Jones from 17 different proxies • I used only the most recent 600 years of data because of inconsistencies in measuring techniques before that time period

  4. Methodology • I performed a principle component regression using a singular value decomposition method to analyze my temperature data set • The regression is used to determine whether the hockey stick model could be a valid model to describe climate changes over the last 1000 years

  5. Methodology • After performing the regression on both the northern and southern data, I found the 95 % confidence interval for both slopes and plotted the 95% confidence interval of the fitting line

  6. Results • Plot of normalized northern hemisphere temperature data with principle component regression line

  7. Results • Plot of normalized southern hemisphere temperature data with principle component regression line

  8. Results • 95 % Slope Error estimate for northern data • low = • -0.0045 • high = • 0.0054 • Actual slope = • 4.6423e-004

  9. Results • 95% Slope error for Southern Data • low = • -0.0048 • high = • 0.0047 • Actual slope = • -3.9896e-005

  10. Conclusions • Analysis of the data turns out to be inconclusive • The regression for the northern hemisphere does have a positive slope to it, which would correspond to the hockey stick model • However, the southern data dhows a negative temperature trend • Both of the slope error bounds include positive and negative slopes, so neither graph is particularly conclusive • We can say that Mann’s results are not statistically vigorous based on the slope error bounds I calculated

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