El Nino

1. El Nino Elyse Hultgren, Kristin Kearnes, Tommy Lawton, Dane Kopnisky

2. What is El Niño? • Definition – A warm current of water • A disruption of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences in weather around the globe. DK

3. The Consequences of El Niño • Increased Rainfall across the southern tier of the US and in Peru causing flooding • Could cause droughts on the western coast and Australia • This leads to brush fires in Australia • Marine life is reduced DK

4. Normal Conditions • Trade winds blow west across the tropical pacific that pile up warm surface water in the west pacific so the sea surface is about a half meter higher at Indonesia than Ecuador. • Water is 8 degrees C warmer in the western pacific waters. DK

5. El Niño Conditions • Trade winds are weakened which allows the warmer western pacific waters to move east and reach the South American coasts which makes the thermocline (layer between surface water and deep water) deeper. • This makes it so the nutrient rich waters on the coasts are depleted by the warmer waters because the thermocline is deeper. DK

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7. When it occurs • Around Christmas time every year on the coast of Ecuador and Peru that lasts about a month • Major El Niño's occur every three to seven years and last for a couple months • Some El Niño's may even last for a couple years DK

8. Effects of El Nino The effects of this phenomenon are extensive and have an impact on nations all over the world. KK http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino/shtml

9. WEATHER AND CLIMATE • The first signs of El Nino are the unusual warming of the water in the Western Pacific Ocean. • The warming is caused by trade winds blowing from East to West. • Thunderstorms are a common effect in tropical regions as a result of El Nino. For example, suddenly islands like Tahiti, normally tropical paradises, experience massive storms. (Severe Thunderstorm over Strands Beach, Dana Point) http://www.aku-aku.com/html/Local_stock/el-nino_JPG.htm KK

10. The earth’s atmosphere responds to the heating of El Nino by producing patterns of high and low pressure, having a profound impact on weather. • Temperatures rise in western Canada and the upper plains of the U.S., while the southern U.S. experiences colder than normal temperatures • Clouds and rain storms associated with warm ocean waters shift toward the east. • As a result rains which would normally fall over tropical rain forest start falling in desert areas causing forest fires and drought in the Western Pacific and flooding in South America. http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/factors_affecting_climate.htm (Rainforest fire in Brazil) KK (Flooding in Santa Cruz River) http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/changes/natural/elnino/

11. Warm Episode Relationships (December-February) (June-August) • During the months of June-August, wetter than normal conditions occur in the intermountain regions of the U.S. and over central Chile. • Eastern Australia experiences drier than normal conditions during these months. • Warmer than normal conditions are found along the west coast of South America and across southeastern Brazil. • Cooler than normal conditions along the Gulf coast of the U.S. • Wetter than normal conditions tend to occur during the months of December – February along coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru, southern Brazil, central Argentina, and eastern Africa. • Drier than normal conditions are generally observed over northern South America, Central America, and southern Africa. • Warmer than normal conditions occur across southeastern Asia, southeastern Africa, Japan, southern Alaska and western/central Canada, southeastern Brazil and southeastern Australia. http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysismonitering/ensocycle/elninosfc.html KK

12. Economic Impacts of El Nino • Weather and climate sensitive industries such as agriculture, construction, energy distribution, and outdoor recreation are directly impacted by El Nino. • South American economies are curtailed by the loss of fishing and climate effects on crops and people. • In Asia and the western Pacific region, severe droughts occur which starve crops as well as people and the economy. • Extreme climate changes occurring in North America such as flooding and droughts, bring economic damage to the United States. KK

13. They have heavy effects on farming and result in negative consequences for properties and businesses in the U.S. and around the globe. • El Nino impacts important business variables like sales, revenues, and employment in a wide range of climate sensitive industries. • Overall, total U.S. economic impacts of the 1997-98 El Nino were estimated at a cost of $25 billion. (El Nino tornado damage in Florida) http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/factors_affecting_climate.htm KK

14. Questions: • 1) Massive thunderstorms can be found in what types of regions as a result of El Nino? KK • A: Tropical Regions • 2) What kind of climate sensitive industries are economically effected by El Nino? KK • A: Agriculture, construction, energy distribution, and outdoor recreation. KK

15. Past Large El Nino’s • 1941-42 • 1957-58 • 1965-66 • 1972-73 • 1982-83 • 1986-87 • 1991-92 TL

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18. 1982-83 and 1997-1998El Nino at its worst • Those years experienced two of the strongest El Nino patterns ever. The dramatic climate and weather changes resulted in, economic and physical, destruction worldwide. Microsoft Clip Art TL

19. 1982-1983 El Nino http://seawifs.gsfc.nasa.gov/OCEAN_PLANET/HTML/oceanography_el_nino.html TL

20. $811,000,000,000 Flooding: Bolivia($300,000,000);Peru($350,000,000); Cuba($170,000,000) Hurricanes: Tahiti($50,000,000); Hawaii($250,000,000) Drought/Fires: Australia($2,500,000,000; Southern Africa($1,000,000,000); Southern India($160,000,000); Philippines($450,000,000); Indonesia($500,000,000); Mexico/Central America($600,000,000) Economic Cost of 1982-83 El Nino TL

21. Lessons learned from 1982-83 • That El Nino event was unpredictable and stronger than ever expected • Funding went into El Nino research and emphasis was place on better prediction and planning TL

22. 1997-1998 El Nino TL http://www.primenews.com/elnino.html

23. Weather Impacts 1997-98; Hurricane Season • 1997 saw an abnormally low amount of hurricanes. • 7 named storms, with only Danny making landfall in the United States • Extreme wind shear caused by El Nino was the cause of unfavorable conditions for storm development. TL

24. Winter of January 1998 • January 5-9, 1998 • Strong storm picked up moisture in Gulf of Mexico • Flooding rain throughout Southern and Southeast Coast into the Carolinas • Major ice storm effected West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New England and Canada • 56 Total Deaths from storm http://www.recorder.ca/ice/pole.html TL

25. Flooding February 1998 • Major storms came onshore in California, causing massive flooding and erosion. • Many areas received the most rainfall ever for any single month. • 550 Million in Damage • 17 Deaths TL

26. La Nina El Nino (December 1997) Sea Surface Temperatures What is La Nina?? -A climactic fluctuation involving the abnormal cooling of waters off of Peru and Ecuador -As opposed to El Nino, it is unusually cold ocean temperatures around the Equator in the Pacific that characterize La Nina La Nina (December 2000) Source: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html EH

27. What happens during La Nina? • Before La Nina, temperatures of subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific are cooler than normal, and are brought to the surface by atmospheric and oceanic waves moving Easterly. • During La Nina, sea-surface temperatures along the Equator can fall by up to 7 degrees F • Its effects are most clearly seen during the wintertime (as are El Nino’s) • La Nina usually lasts between 9 and 12 months, but some have lasted up to 2 years EH

28. Effects of La Nina • In large portions of Central North America: • Increased storminess and precipitation • Increased frequency of significant cold-air outbreaks (Colder temperatures) • Colder than normal winters • Southeastern US: • Less storminess and precipitation • Warmer than normal conditions • Warmer than normal winters EH

29. La Nina’s Effects • More snow across Eastern Alaska • During La Nina, the jet stream runs from the central Rockies to the central Great Lakes • Weather during La Nina is more severe further North and West • During El Nino, more severe weather is from the northern Gulf of Mexico to northern Florida (where the jet stream is during it) • Overall, La Nina’s effects are the opposite of El Nino’s • i.e. Australian and Indonesian areas are wetter than normal (whereas with El Nino, they were very dry) EH

30. December-February -Wetter than normal conditions over southern Africa and South America -Drier than normal conditions over coastal Ecuador, northwestern Peru, and equatorial eastern Africa -Below normal temperatures over southeastern Africa, southern Alaska, Japan, western/ central Canada, and southeastern Brazil -Warmer than normal conditions along the US’ Gulf Coast June-August -Wetter than normal conditions over southeastern Australia -Drier than normal conditions over southern Brazil and central Argentina -Cooler than normal temperatures across India and southeastern Asia, along the west coast and northern South America, across the Gulf of Guinea, and portions of central America http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/laninasfc.html EH

31. Previous La Nina’s 1988/1989’s La Nina -January 15th - February 15th had severe freezing conditions -Ice thickness in Alaska sizably increased -When spring came around, ice jams caused severe flooding, and former President George HW Bush declared regions of Alaska eligible for federal disaster relief On average, El Nino and La Nina occur every 2-7 years -La Nina’s occurred in: 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995 -Since 1975, La Nina has been only half as frequent as El Nino EH

32.  Fun Facts  • ‘El Nino’ means ‘the little boy,’ or ‘Christ child’ in Spanish • El Nino was first recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America • ‘La Nina’ means ‘the little girl’ in Spanish • La Nina is sometimes also called ‘El Viejo,’ anti-El Nino, or ‘a cold event’ • Debate has gone on as to whether La Nina really exists; after El Nino’s, temperatures become cooler again – so the debate is whether the cooling should be referred to as La Nina, or simply normal EH

33. Questions • 1) What is La Nina? EH • A: A climactic fluctuation involving the abnormal cooling of waters off of Peru and Ecuador resulting in cold ocean temperatures around the Equator in the Pacific Ocean • 2) Overall, how do La Nina’s effects compare to those of El Nino’s? EH • A: They pretty much result in opposite effects EH

34. SOURCES: • http://www.spacedaily.com/news/pacific-02g.html • http://www.angelfire.com/mi/umproject/ • http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/archive/nino/elnino.html • http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/elnino/shtml • http://www.aku-aku.com/html/Local_stock/el-nino_JPG.htm • http://www.ecn.ac.uk/Education/factors_affecting_climate.htm • http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysismonitoring/ensocycle/elninosfc.html • http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/changes/natural/elnino/ • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/elnino/elnino.html • http://nndc.noaa.gov/?http://ols.nndc.noaa.gov:80/plolstore/plsql/olstore.prodspecific?prodnum=C00500-PUB-A0001 • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/janstorm/janstorm.html • http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/febstorm/february98storms.html • http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/ • http://www.primenews.com/elnino.html • http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/cold.gif • http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/lanina.html • http://www.elnino.noaagov/lanina.html • http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina_new_faq.html • http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Boulevard/7384/gallery.htm • http://www.bartleby.com/65/el/ElNinoSou.html EH Source: http://www.geocities.com/Hollywood/Boulevard/7384/gallery.htm