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Air Quality Modelling Applications

With contributions from: Sophie Cousineau Véronique Bouchet Mourad Sassi Sylvain Ménard Richard Moffet Dave Fox Colin diCenzo. Colleen Farrell Gilles Morneau Nedka Pentcheva Hong Lin Mike Moran Paul Makar. Air Quality Modelling Applications.

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Air Quality Modelling Applications

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  1. With contributions from: • Sophie Cousineau • Véronique Bouchet • Mourad Sassi • Sylvain Ménard • Richard Moffet • Dave Fox • Colin diCenzo • Colleen Farrell • Gilles Morneau • Nedka Pentcheva • Hong Lin • Mike Moran • Paul Makar Air Quality Modelling Applications Air Quality Modelling Applications Division, CMC Louis-Philippe Crevier Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  2. Overview • Present AQ modelling applications activities across MSC • Identify a few interesting results along the way Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  3. Topics • PM Transboundary Transport Assessment • Emissions trading study • ICARTT support and real time AURAMS runs • CHRONOS real time scenarios • Regional modelling activities • Changes to emissions processing Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  4. CMC/ARQI/PYR PM Transboundary Transport Assessment • Joint modelling effort with US EPA. • AURAMS, REMSAD and CMAQ scenarios were used to prepare input for the modelling chapter • CMAQ input prepared by PYR using « emissions ON/OFF » scenarios • AURAMS: • First policy application for AURAMS • Tried to evaluate the impact, in 2020, of proposed legislation on ambient concentrations of PM • 4 emissions reduction scenarios were analysed using 2 case studies (summer 1995 and winter 1998) • Results: • The additional legislation provides benefits wrt legislation already in place or coming into effect in the next few years • Changes in atmospheric PM in eastern North America in response to changes in PM gaseous precursors are expected to vary strongly by season and in some areas to vary non-proportionally and even non-directionally Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  5. CMC Scenario description * * * * Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  6. CMC/ARQI Example AURAMS input to PM Assessment July 8-18 2020P - 2020B Scenario “Deltas” for SO2 and NOx Emission Reductions, July 1995 & Feb. 1998 Cases (AURAMS) Feb. 7-15 PM2.5 SO4 PM2.5 NO3 PM2.5 NH4 Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  7. CMC Evaluation of Emissions Trading scenarios • Work under Ozone Annex involving NRCan, MSC, EPS and EPA • Goal: • Assuming a cap-and-trade system for the EGU sector existed in Canada, evaluate the potential impacts of different configurations of the system e.g. cross-border trading vs no cross-border trading • A new Canadian module for the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) was created and is used to predict the impact of regulations and market pressures on the electric generation sector until 2020 Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  8. CMC Integrated Planning Model • Simulates the EGU sector and the different market constraints it is subjected to i.e. fuel prices, environmental regulations, plant maintenance, energy demand vs capacity • Allows for fuel switching, installation of abatement technology, plant shut-down, plant construction and trading of emissions allowances • IPM calculates NOx and SO2 emissions for each plant. A post processing is required to get other emissions. Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  9. CMC Planned AURAMS runs • 2 trading scenarios to evaluate • No cross-border trading • Cross-border trading allowed • AURAMS East 42 km configuration will be used with same episodes as in PM Assessment • Winter and summer cases in years 2010 and 2020 will be evaluated • Once East is done AURAMS West 21 km config will be used to evaluate impact on BC and Prairies Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  10. CMC Current Status of IPM runs Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  11. CMC Example EGU emissions for two scenarios 27% NOx emissions reduction for « No cross-border trading » 23% SO2 emissions reduction for « No cross-border trading » Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  12. CMC/ARQI/PYR/PNR Real-time & Ensemble Forecasts • Daily run of AURAMS: • 48h forecast at 42 km over East Domain • 48h forecast at 21 km over West Domain (almost ready) • Western forecasts with AURAMS being set-up: • For PYR and PNR regional offices • Preparation for Prairie 2005 • For ensemble forecast[ UBC project (R. Stull, L. DeRelle) ] Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  13. CMC/AQRB/ATL CMC modelling support for ICARTT • AURAMS • 1 48h forecast every day • CHRONOS • 2 48h forecasts every day • 00 UTC: same as operational forecast, more outputs • 12 UTC: experimental ground-level ozone assimilation • Special set of forward/back trajectories made available 4 times per day • Products were timely, robust and proved useful • Similar set-up is being constructed for Prairie 2005 Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  14. CMC/AQRB/ATL Field Campaign Support (ICARTT / PRAIRIE 2005) AURAMS output Trajectories GEM 2.5 km output Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  15. CMC AURAMS/CHRONOS Performances Nonetheless, during ICARTT, AURAMS 00 UTC 48h forecast was typically available by 8 EDT Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  16. CMC CHRONOS Applications • CHRONOS operational version (public) • 1 run/day (00Z), 48h forecast, • continental domain, 21km spatial res, • no data assimilation, • predicts O3, PM2.5 mass, PM10 mass • CHRONOS experimental version (ICARTT) • 2 runs/day (00Z and 12Z), 48h forecast, • continental domain, 21 km spatial res, • assimilation of surface O3 data, • predicts O3, PM2.5 mass, PM10 mass, • some speciated information in <2.5mm • CHRONOS real-time scenarios (MSC) • 7 runs/day (00z), 24h forecast, • continental domain, 21km spatial res, • no data assimilation • On/Off runs for different regions

  17. CMC CHRONOS Real Time Scenario Runs • Objective • Experiment with real-time applications to support CWS implementation • Current set-up • Evaluation for both ozone and PM2.5 (starting in 2003) • Comparison based CWS standard exceedances • 7 CHRONOS scenarios are run everyday with different emissions reductions (anthropogenic emissions turned off for specific regions) • Conclusions: • Real-time scenarios are feasible and maintainable • We are ready for more subtle emissions reductions scenarios Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  18. CMC # of days exceedingozone CWS for modelled ozone June 1st to Sept. 30th 2003 Preliminary results for 2004 are comparable Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  19. CMC # of days exceedingPM2.5 CWS for modelled ozone June 1st to Sept. 30th 2003 Preliminary results for 2004 are comparable Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  20. PYR Pacific and Yukon • Improve understanding of role of ammonia in chemistry and sea salt (G&Cs). • A/Q ensemble experiments (with UBC). Add AURAMS and CHRONOS output to the ensemble. • Impacts of AQ on visibility and lines of sight straddling the border (CMAQ application). • Daily real-time CMAQ runs (UBC, regular model exercise increases understanding of transboundary flows). • Upgrade CMAQ and SMOKE software of UBC AQ modelling system. • Various emission scenarios (e.g. marine vessel emissions) runs and sensitivity tests using CMAQ on the NW-AIRQUEST domain. Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  21. Ontario Ontario Region Modelling activities • AURAMS application, focus on Great Lake area to support airshed characterization (BAQS) • Collaborating with Paul Makar to prepare set-up for AURAMS run in support of SwOn/SeMi 2006 • CHRONOS evaluation for 2003 for specific Ontario sites is underway Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  22. Quebec Accounting for transboundary flow (GDAD of CWS) • Three scenarios are run with AURAMS • All anthropogenic sources (A) • Sources within the jurisdiction set to zero (B) • Sources outside the jurisdiction set to zero (C) • Total concentration = Local + transboundary + background • Local (jurisdiction) component: A - B • Transboundary component: A - C • Background: B + C - A Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  23. Quebec Results for Trois-Rivieres (URS) Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  24. Atlantic Atlantic Region • Evaluate Canadian contributions to local air quality problem. • Ran CHRONOS for a widespread ozone episode from June 2001. • Re-ran CHRONOS with all the Canadian emissions turned off, subtracted the difference to get the contribution from Canadian emission sources • Compared the results with the measurements. • Notes • Although there were some sites with elevated PM, the selected period was not much of a PM episode. • Using CHRONOS/AURAMS with the same grid and configuration that Quebec region uses. • Preliminary conclusions: • On good air quality days with respect to ozone, the % contribution from local sources is greater than from the US. On a bad AQ day wrt ozone, the contribution from the US is greater. • Local contributions appear to be greater for PM than for ozone, although a case which was a worse PM episode may show something different. Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  25. Atlantic Canadian Contribution to PM at Sydney Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  26. PNR Annual CMAQ Model Run (2002) • Objectives • Transboundary Transport – CAN/US, Provincial • Provincial Sulphur and Nitrogen Budgets • Regional Acid Deposition • Future Emission Scenarios • Status • MM5 runs on Coarse Domain (Completed) • Preparation of Emission Inputs (Ongoing) • CMAQ runs on Coarse Domain (Start in Nov. 2004) Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  27. 36km 12km 12km 4km 4km PNR PNR CMAQ Modelling Domains Coarse Domain Northern Domain Oil Sands Edm-Calg AB-SK Domain Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  28. PNR PNR Support Projects • 4km Area and Mobile Emissions (Completed) • Gridded Agricultural Activity Data (Completed) • Northern Emissions (Ongoing) • Projected AB emissions for year 2010 (Ongoing) • Improving Biogenic Emissions by using the Canadian National Forest Inventory (Ongoing) Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  29. CMC/ARQI/PNR/NRC Adaptation of SMOKE for MSC Models • The SMOKE emissions processor is in the process of being adapted for MSC AQ models • Impacts: • More control on emissions data • Quicker turn-around for emissions inventory QA/QC • Still limited by data availability (year 2000 inventory) • Status: • Official SMOKE release (2.1) with PS capability • Initial ADOM-II speciation files for SMOKE is ready • All components of SMOKE are working except biogenic emissions • The first version is currently being tested with AURAMS & CHRONOS • * Collaboration withWeimin Jiang’s group at NRC, with AQRB scientists (Moran, Makar) and Dave Fox (EC PNR) Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  30. CMC/ARQI/PNR/NRC SMOKE Emissions – Western Domain NH3 area emissions (g/s) – summer – 22 GMT, resolution : 5km Based on PNR 4 km emissions inventory NO mobile emissions (g/s) – summer - 22 GMT, resolution: 5km Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

  31. Summary • AURAMS has started to be used in policy applications • Modelling groups are collaborating and exchanging data (common grids, common inventories) • Modelling infrastructures for real-time applications is getting more and more robust Smog / Acid Rain Mid-term Review - October 2004

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