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Group Decision Optimization with Delphi and Ontology A Study For DARPA

Ted Gordon Consultant. Adam Pease Articulate Software. Group Decision Optimization with Delphi and Ontology A Study For DARPA. Scores of proposed decisions so far:. When you are satisfied with your inputs click save and it will be added to the group’s scoring. Cell under consideration:

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Group Decision Optimization with Delphi and Ontology A Study For DARPA

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  1. Ted Gordon Consultant Adam Pease Articulate Software Group Decision Optimization with Delphi and OntologyA Study For DARPA

  2. Scores of proposed decisions so far: When you are satisfied with your inputs click save and it will be added to the group’s scoring.

  3. Cell under consideration: Candidate Decision: UN sponsors vigorous anti-terrorist campaign among religious leaders“ Criterion: The decision is likely to be effective

  4. Global SOFI 2005Objectives • How have the SOFI projections changed over time? • Are the data sources used for the variables contained in the SOFI during the last five years still appropriate? If not what sources replace them? • Has the historical data provided by these sources changed over the years? Even though history is history, some providers of data change the data they published earlier as a result of new analysis techniques, changing definitions, and late inputs from primary sources. • Forecasts of each variable were made in each year that SOFI was provided; how do these forecasts compare to actual data now available in 2005? • Where the forecasts differ from actuality, are reasons apparent?

  5. Five Years of SOFI: Variables • 1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) • 2. Food availability Cal/cp Developing Countries • 3. GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 $US) • 4. Pct of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) • 5. CO2 atmospheric, ppm • 6. Annual population additions (millions) • 7. Percentage of world population unemployed • 8. Literacy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above) • 9. Annual AIDS deaths (millions) • 10. Life Expectancy (years) • 11. Number of Armed Conflicts (at least 1000 deaths/yr) • 12. Debt/GNP Developing Countries (%) • 13. Forest Lands (Million Hectares) • 14. Number of People Living on Less than $2 per day • 15. Terrorist Attacks (Number injured or killed) • 16. Violent Crime 17 Countries (per 100,000 population) • 17. Percentage of World Population Living in Countries that are Not Free • 18. School Enrollment, secondary (% school age) • 19. Percentage of population with access to local health care (15 most populated countries) • 20. Number of countries thought to have or attempting to acquire nuclear weapons

  6. SOFI 2005

  7. High in 2003 and Low in 2004 • The favorable data in 2003 included: • A dip in the number of wars • A dip in the ratio of debt to GDP • Relative low terrorism casualties compared to 2001 and 2004 • And in 2004 the situation worsened because of • An unexpectedly high number of terrorist caused casualties • The percentage of people living in countries classed as not free increased as a result of Russia being reclassified.

  8. SPFI 2001- 2005

  9. SOFI 2005 (with TIA)

  10. Population Additions US Census Bureau, data and forecasts

  11. Four Questions • Are the data sources used for the variable still active and appropriate? YES. US CENSUS BUREAU IS AUTHORITATIVE • Has the actual historical data provided by those sources changed? YES • How do forecasts made in earlier years compare to actual data now available in 2005? LOWER; THE CENSUS BUREAU’S FORECASTS NOW SHOW AN UP-TICK IN POPULATION ADDITIONS LATER IN THIS DECADE. • Where the forecasts differ significantly, are reasons apparent? CHANGING METHODS OF ESTIMATING AND INCORPORATION OF NEW AIDS AND HIV DATA, RATES OF SURVIVAL INTO OLD AGE, AND INCORPORATION OF THE RESULTS OF THE 2000 US CENSUS

  12. Results SummaryExample

  13. Terrorism Statistics • US Department of State in its annual report titled Patterns of Global Terrorism provided succinct and apparently accurate counts on the number of terrorist incidents and the number of casualties • This year however, the Department changed the report’s format and omitted these statistics. • The change in policy came after the release of figures that were challenged as being too low. • After the controversy “…. there were over 9,000 victims of significant international terrorism last year, of which 1,907 were killed. ….”

  14. Possible Ethics Scenarios • The rise of trans-humanism • New attitudes toward death • The designed human • The stasis of religion • From ethics to law

  15. Women’s Study Round 1Question Example Women are the most significant suppliers of family labor and efficient managers of household food security. They produce and manage over 50% of all the world’s goods and services in the unpaid sectors.In addition, women (whether naturally or through acculturation) bear greater responsibility at al levels of society for nurture, education, food production, cooperative sharing volunteering and conflict resolution. Mainstream economics still treats these services of women as “un-economic” because they are usually unpaid.

  16. Round 2Question Example

  17. Round 2Question Example

  18. Round 3Question Example • Focus on actions • May be interviews

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