Early On ® Redesign Update

1. Early On® Redesign Update Michigan SICC Meeting November 16, 2006

2. Topics To Be Addressed • Completed Components • Estimated Prevalence Report • Next Steps SICC Presentation November 2006

3. Completed Components • Causes and Forces – April 2005 • Define Eligible Population* November 2005- Fall 2006 • Define Results – ECO Center Child and Family Outcomes • Convene Results Teams – Summer 2005 SICC Presentation November 2006

4. Estimated Prevalence Report

5. Concept of prevalence • What is prevalence? prev.a.lence, n. The degree to which something occurs or exists. For example, the percentage of a population that meets a certain definition, or has a certain diagnosis. SICC Presentation November 2006

6. Purpose of Early On Prevalence Study • Estimate the number of children that could have a developmental delay and to understand the size of the potentially eligible population. • Identify the gap between who is currently being served and who could potentially be served. • Leverage existing funds and advocate for new funding to help fill service gaps and meet compliance requirements. SICC Presentation November 2006

7. Purpose of Early On Prevalence Study • Inform the Early On system redesign efforts and strengthen connections with the broader early childhood system. • Support the recommendation that the ECIC use the prevalence study in their work of supporting the development of comprehensive early childhood systems. • Recognize the potential numbers of children who will not meet the Early On eligibility criteria and will need to be served through other community resources. SICC Presentation November 2006

8. What percentage of infants and toddlers participate in Early On?

9. SICC Presentation November 2006 December 1, 2004 Child Count, Percentage of Children Served

10. What percentage of infants and toddlers participate in Part C nationally?

11. SICC Presentation November 2006

12. Methodology The premise of an estimated prevalence model is rooted in the notion that all communities within a state Part C system should serve the same percentage of children; except for accounting (indexing) for community differences in population characteristics that are likely predictors of participation in early intervention. SICC Presentation November 2006

13. Steps in the prevalence study: • Define the community for which you are estimating prevalence (ISDs). • Calculate the percentage of children currently in service in each community. • Select a projection model (i.e. population variables that are predictors of participation in early intervention). • Compute an index. • Estimated prevalence projection. • Decide how results will play a role in your system. • Continue to review, refine and update. SICC Presentation November 2006

14. Step 1. Define the community for which you are estimating prevalence • For consistency with the current system, we are defining ‘community’ as ISD service areas. • Some data was only available on a county basis, in which case we had to combine county data to approximate ISD service areas. SICC Presentation November 2006

15. Step 2. Calculate the percentage of children currently in service in each community • Determine the number of children in service at a given point in time (‘shapshot’ count). • Divide by the total number of children in the birth-3 age group (‘birth cohort’). • Result is your percentage of children currently in service. SICC Presentation November 2006

16. Step 3. Select a projection model • The projection model is made up of population variables that are predictors of participation in early intervention, typically social risk factors or health risk factors. • There should be evidence of a link between the population variable and early intervention (e.g. through epidemiological studies, National Early Intervention Longitudinal Study, identified in IDEA as a target population, etc.) SICC Presentation November 2006

17. Step 3. REQUIRED Data Characteristics! • Data must be readily available; • Must be population-based data rather than participatory counts (e.g. birth certificate data, Census data); • Must have a long history of consistent data collection; • The data must be statistically reliable; • The data must be available as both numbers and rates; and • The data must be available for the state and county/ISD. SICC Presentation November 2006

18. Step 3. Population variables considered SICC Presentation November 2006

19. Step 3. Population variables considered SICC Presentation November 2006

20. Step 3. Population variables considered SICC Presentation November 2006

21. Step 3. Population variables considered SICC Presentation November 2006

22. Step 3. Population variables chosen SICC Presentation November 2006

23. Step 3. Population variables chosen, cont. SICC Presentation November 2006

24. Step 3. SMALL GROUP WORKReview Population data for your community • Use Worksheet 1, and Table 1 from your LICC’s Data folder. • Take about 15 minutes to review the questions on Worksheet 1 with your LICC members. SICC Presentation November 2006

25. Step 4. Compute an index • The ‘Index’ is the number that accounts for community differences. • Divide the percent of children in service by the sum of the population variables chosen for the model. • The highest resulting number from across the communities will be the index that will be applied universally. • It is important to verify that the index community has a reliable and valid percent of children in service, is using the state definition of eligibility, is using an eligibility determination process that is in compliance with rules and regulations, and their data represents an established pattern of service. SICC Presentation November 2006

26. Step 5. Estimated prevalence projection SICC Presentation November 2006

27. Step 6.How will Michigan use the results of the Early On prevalence study? • Estimate the number of children that could have a developmental delay and to understand the size of the potentially eligible population. • Identify the gap between who is currently being served and who could potentially be served. • Leverage existing funds and advocate for new funding to help fill service gaps and meet compliance requirements. SICC Presentation November 2006

28. Step 6.How will Michigan use the results of the Early On prevalence study? • Inform the Early On system redesign efforts and strengthen connections with the broader early childhood system. • Support the recommendation that the ECIC use the prevalence study in their work of supporting the development of comprehensive early childhood systems. • Recognize the potential numbers of children who will not meet the Early On eligibility criteria and will need to be served through other early childhood community resources. SICC Presentation November 2006

29. Next Steps

30. Next Steps • Completion of Cost Study • Development of Purchasing Plan • Triangulate: • Causes and Forces • Results Teams’ Recommendations • Revenue Information • Allocate Resources • Development of Interagency Agreement • Final Report in February SICC Presentation November 2006