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International Futures (IFs) An Overview of Structural Design

International Futures (IFs) An Overview of Structural Design. March 2004 Barry Hughes University of Denver. Outline: An Overview of Structural Design. Foundations: Motivation, Purposes, Assumptions Design Drivers: Desired Characteristics Design Decisions and Elements: Generic

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International Futures (IFs) An Overview of Structural Design

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  1. International Futures (IFs) An Overview of Structural Design March 2004 Barry Hughes University of Denver

  2. Outline: An Overview of Structural Design • Foundations: Motivation, Purposes, Assumptions • Design Drivers: Desired Characteristics • Design Decisions and Elements: Generic • Design Details: Issue-Area/Module Specific • Vision for Evolution

  3. Foundations: Motivation and Purposes • Tool for understanding long-term global change • Education • Insight • Tool for exploring human leverage in pursuit of key values/goals:

  4. Global (With Regional and Country Detail) Integrated, Multi-Issue Long-Term Data and Theory-Based Interventions Possible User-Friendly Accessible/Available Transparent/Open Design Drivers: Desired Characteristics

  5. Design Decisions/Elements I: Modules, Example Links

  6. Design Decisions/Elements II: Components

  7. Design Decisions III: Characterizing/Implementing • “Structure-based, (increasingly) agent-class driven, dynamic modeling” • Not systems dynamics (but use stocks/flows) • Not econometrics (but use estimation) • Not optimization (but can explore for strategies) • Implemented with recursive, difference equations • Not analytic solution or comparative statics (but can pursue equilibrium and represent disequilibrium) • Substantial interface with many intervention points • Not trivial to use (but can implement scenarios and drill-down)

  8. Design Details I: Demographics

  9. Design Details II: Goods and Services Production

  10. Design Details III: Goods and Services Market

  11. Design Details IV: Finance

  12. Design Details V: Energy Resources

  13. Design Details VI: Energy Production

  14. Design Details VII: Energy Markets

  15. Design Details VIII: Land Use

  16. Design Details IX: Food Production

  17. Design Details X: Food/Agriculture Markets

  18. Design Details XI: Environment (CO2)

  19. Design Details XII: Environment (Water)

  20. Design Details XIII: Values/Culture

  21. Design Details XIV: Education

  22. Design Details XV: Democracy

  23. Design Details XVI: Human Development

  24. Design Details XVII: State Failure

  25. Design Details XVIII: Interstate Threaat

  26. Data foundations Extend data import techniques to formal links to multiple databases (create meta-database) Formulations Extend transparency and openness into on-line, collective development with libraries of formulations, modules Institutionalization of team Kernel updates Accessibility Web-based User-Friendly Simplified interface with building-blocks for scenarios and packaged scenarios Strategy-Search Tools CARS/IFs Vision for Evolution of World Modelingfor Long-Range Analysis

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