Presented by: Simone Tuten on behalf of the Department of Agriculture,

1. A new semi-quantitative model to determine pest introduction frequency Presented by: Simone Tuten on behalf of the Department of Agriculture, Western Australia Plant Biosecurity Team. International Plant Health Risk Analysis Workshop Niagara Falls, October 2005

2. Please note: The research reported here is in progress and is not finalised. The study results have not been subjected to scientific peer review and are presented purely as a demonstration of the authors’ current thinking. This presentation reflects the authors’ opinions and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Department of Agriculture, Western Australia. Additionally this research has been undertaken by the Western Australian State Department of Agriculture and not by National Government Departments. Any reliance on the information presented here is entirely at your own risk and the Department of Agriculture, Western Australia takes no responsibility whatsoever for the results of your doing so.

4. Background Western Australia

5. Background • Deserts

6. Background • Deserts • Limited road access

7. Background • Deserts • Limited road access • check points • 20 points

8. Background • Deserts • Limited road access • check points • Ports

9. Background • Pest and disease freedoms • Codling moth (Cydia pomonella ) • Oriental fruit moth (Grapholita molesta) • Apple scab (Venturia inaequali)

10. Background – Australia’s quarantine system • Quarantine continuum • Partnership • States/Territories • Interstate trade • National • International trade

11. Background – Australia’s quarantine system • Memorandum of Understanding • Agreement • Enables SPS compliance • Consistency

12. Background – WA Plant Biosecurity • State pest risk analyses • Market access • National pest risk analyses

13. Background – WA Plant Biosecurity • Important considerations • integration of consequences and PEES • impact of volume • multiple pathways

14. The Model - Features • Enhances existing methodology • Incorporates • variable input data • trade volume • complex scenarios • multiple pathways • Pest initiated is best

15. Pest Present in Source Orchard No = 1 - Imp1 Yes = Imp1 Harvested Fruit Infected No = 1 – Imp2 Yes = Imp2 Pest Survives Pack House No = 1 – Imp3 Yes = Imp3 Pest Survives Transport No = 1 – Imp4 Yes = Imp4 Pest Survives Quarantine Clearance No = 1 – Imp5 Yes = Imp5 Importation of Pest P1 Proportion of Fruit Purchased by Retailers P2 Proportion Purchased by Consumers from Retailers P3 Proportion of Fruit Discarded as Waste P4 Pest Viability Viable Waste from Consumers Exp1 - Exposure of Commercial Hosts Exp2 - Exposure of Household Hosts Exp3 - Exposure of Wild Hosts PPDc Partial Probability of Distribution to Commercial Hosts PPDh Partial Probability of Distribution to Household Hosts PPDw Partial Probability of Distribution to Wild Hosts Partial Probability of Establishment Partial Probability of Establishment Partial Probability of Establishment The Model - Pathway Simplistic schematic Distribution Importation

16. The Model – Output Years before 1st introduction = 1+RiskGeomet(PEEannual)

17. 1+RiskGeomet(PEEannual)

18. The Model – Output Introduction frequency = 1/PEEannual

19. 1/PEEannual

20. Volume and risk

21. Volume and risk • Non linear • high unit risk rapid increase at low volumes • low unit risk rapid increase occurs later • Consider all pathways and total volume • Monitor phytosanitary measures efficacy

22. Introduction frequency - applications • Risk Communication • Tangible • ALOP • Defining • Consequences • integrating consequences with PEES • how often is too often?

23. Introduction frequency - applications • Management strategies • phytosanitary measures efficacy • Non-SPS application • development of policy • business planning • strategy planning to minimise impact of trade

24. Where to from here? • Validation • Check model assumptions • using data collected during 2 seasons • review and release model • Risk assessment • Link between introduction frequency and • consequences • ALOP

25. The plant biosecurity team Director Plant Biosecurity – Dr Shashi Sharma ssharma@agric.wa.gov.au Activity Specialist/Policy – Mr Mark Stuart mstuart@agric.wa.gov.au Pathologist/modelling – Ms Nichole Burges nburges@agric.wa.gov.au Pathologist – Dr Satendra Kumar skumar@agric.wa.gov.au Entomology/climate modelling – Mr Marc Poole mpoole@agric.wa.gov.au Entomology – Dr John Botha jbotha@agric.wa.gov.au Biometrics – Ms Jane Speijers jspeijers@agric.wa.gov.au Policy – Ms Simone Tuten stuten@agric.wa.gov.au