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Navy Tropical Meteorology Research

Navy Tropical Meteorology Research. Dr. Ronald J. Ferek , ONR. Fleet priority since WWII Establishment of JTWC in 1959 ONR program thrust since 1980 1984: goal set by CINCPACFLT - “Reduce 72h track error to 150nm” Late 1980’s-AF cut recon in W. Pacific

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Navy Tropical Meteorology Research

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  1. Navy Tropical Meteorology Research Dr. Ronald J. Ferek, ONR

  2. Fleet priority since WWII Establishment of JTWC in 1959 ONR program thrust since 1980 1984: goal set by CINCPACFLT - “Reduce 72h track error to 150nm” Late 1980’s-AF cut recon in W. Pacific - Emphasis on quantitative satellite observations; mitigated impact of the loss of in-situ data Previous (1990’s) emphasis on track - Met 1984 goal in 2002 Recent program focus - Coupling between ocean & atmosphere (CBLAST DRI) - Storm-scale processes and ocean impact (two new DRI’s: TCS-08, ITOP) History and Recent Program Focus

  3. TCS-08: “The Impact of Storm-Scale Processes on the Predictability of Western Pacific Typhoons” Problem: Cannot predict the evolution of tropical disturbances over the western Pacific (formation, intensity changes, outer wind structure, etc.) Collab. with THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) Collaboration between ONR, NRL, NSF, USAF, ARL, NAVOCEANO, andEU, JMA, CMA, NTU, KMA, CNES, DLR, etc. as part of the T-PARC project ITOP: “Characterizing Impact Of Typhoons On The Western Pacific Ocean” Focus on improved prediction of TC impact on ocean waves & mixed layer Improve representation of wave-induced mixing in upper ocean Recent TC Research Initiatives 3

  4. Navy Man-Years vs. Detailed Research Intensity / Structure Track Genesis QPF Surge Model Development Observations [Seasonal] 4

  5. Navy Man-Years vs Research Category Total Man-Years: 50 5% 36% 59%

  6. Navy Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities TC Research Aligned with Operational Priorities Intensity Change Genesis Stat Aids QPF Track Fcst Storm Surge Observations Size/Structure SST Gradients Model Res vs Ensembles Seasonal Progs Fcst Efficiency Wind Analysis Radar/Sat. Data

  7. Track errors will continue to improve as global model skill increases - Assimilation of new sources of remote sensing data should help, as will ocean observing system - Profiling floats/drifters should be considered as part of routine TC recon. Current intensity prediction lacks skill: - Need to treat as a coupled problem A coupled atmosphere/wave/ocean mesoscale modeling system at sub-10km resolution is feasible - Improved understanding of heat, moisture and momentum fluxes bridged a significant knowledge gap - Needed to address genesis, intensity changes, structure and asymmetries, ocean impacts and improved wave/surge prediction Future Research Directions

  8. Summary 8 • Navy has a long-standing history of tropical meteorology research • Basic > Applied • Topics focused on Naval requirements • Initiative process emphasizes research on important knowledge gaps • Current Navy emphasis • Structure (wind field / sea height), genesis, intensity changes, physics coupled with the ocean • Emphasis on remote sensing vs. in-situ observing technologies • Exploring the use of UUV’s and autonomous vehicles for ocean observing • High-resolution coupled mesoscale model (COAMPS-TC) for structure and intensity prediction

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