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Pres. v. Congress. Campaigns

Pres. v. Congress. Campaigns. Nominated (self) vs. selected (party, post-primary) Party in Europe Pres. Races more competitive, fewer vote Congress Incumbency: 96% reelected (Jacobson) Campaign against Washington (centrifugal forces: Grodzins, Loomis) Presidential: “Getting Mentioned”

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Pres. v. Congress. Campaigns

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  1. Pres. v. Congress. Campaigns • Nominated (self) vs. selected (party, post-primary) • Party in Europe • Pres. Races more competitive, fewer vote • Congress Incumbency: 96% reelected (Jacobson) • Campaign against Washington (centrifugal forces: Grodzins, Loomis) • Presidential: “Getting Mentioned” • Length of time to run/$/organization/strategy/themes • House now single-member • Gerrymandering and Malapportionment • District size/shape at issue: court case list: incl. Reynolds v. Sims “1 person 1 vote”, Baker v. Carr • Sophomore surge • Open vs. closed primary • Party leaders can’t control: delegates vs. trustees

  2. Primary vs. General Campaigns • Primary Activists more ideological • Off-term elections: lower turnout results in higher ideological scores? • Iowa Caucuses: focus media, ideologues • Kerry? • Primaries: same possibility: McGovern • Position v. Valence issues • Awareness: TV, mail, debates (only challenger advantage), internet: Dean or Trippi’s Campaign? • Gap between running campaign and gov’t

  3. $Money$ • Presidential: private and public funds • Congressional: Usu. Private, unless contest • Ex. Shays/Farrell • Public financed • AZ, ME, VT. Advantage: Incumbents • Campaign Finance Reform • Watergate, Buckley v. Valeo (1976) • Solidary benefits • Primary and general election campaigns separate • Spending has skyrocketed: M. Huffington • Independent expenditures: 527 • Is $ speech? No • Overstated impacts: VP, abortion, religion • Congress: $ counts • Incumbency advantage: Congress won’t reform • No PACS: return of the fat cats • Shorter campaigns: advantage- incumbents

  4. What decides elections? • Party ID. Why not Dems? • Dems less tied to party; GOP turnout/independents • V.O. Key: self-interested party switchers • Prospective voters: former AP students • Retrospective voters: the masses, wallets • Campaigns reinvigorate interest • Theme focus. Kerry? • Winning a comb. of loyalty and turnout • Dem. New Deal coalition • Blacks, Jews less, Hispanics mixed • Less Catholics/Southerners/union decline • Reps. Coalition: business/prof/occ. farmers

  5. Election Outcomes/Partisanship • Argument: • Public Policy perpetuates, predominantly • Great Britain: dramatic realignments • Here: GRADUAL change, due to Constitutional system • Checks and Balances, separation of powers • Elections matter over time • Enduring Questions: • Parties have weakened • Split-ticket voting, less pty. control, fundraising challenges • Factors: • Strength of economy, candidate popularity, party loyalty/ID • Congressional Campaigns hinge on district lines. Result: STATE ELECTIONS MATTER

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