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Delegates’ 50 % discount

Brian Wernham “Chaos : a new perspective on Agile governance” Presented at APM Governance SIG, London, May 14, 2014. Delegates’ 50 % discount. brian.wernham@gmail.com @BrianUkulele . http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50. Why are YOU here today?. What is ‘Agile’?.

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Delegates’ 50 % discount

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  1. Brian Wernham“Chaos: a new perspective on Agile governance”Presented at APM Governance SIG, London, May 14, 2014 Delegates’ 50% discount brian.wernham@gmail.com@BrianUkulele http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50

  2. Why are YOU here today? What is ‘Agile’? ‘Agile’ only for web development? ‘Agile’ only for tiny stuff? ‘Agile’ = loss of control? ‘Agile’ in mission critical projects? Are we talking Governance of a project of Governance of portfolios of change? What is ‘DSDM’? What is ‘Scrum’? http://bit.ly/About-Brian @BrianUkulele

  3. This talk: • What is ‘Agile’? • What is Agile Governance? • Can we be ready for & take advantage of the unexpected? - Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity • Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile Governance http://bit.ly/About-Brian @BrianUkulele

  4. 1. What is Agile?

  5. The “Big Design Up Front” mind-set At last – a chance to get what I want! I had better ask for all possible features… http://bit.ly/About-Brian @BrianUkulele

  6. The Big Design Up Front is born… http://bit.ly/About-Brian @BrianUkulele

  7. The result of Big Design Up Front…

  8. D’oh! http://bit.ly/About-Brian @BrianUkulele

  9. http://bit.ly/About-Brian @BrianUkulele

  10. As difficult as trying to swim up a waterfall… http://bit.ly/About-Brian @BrianUkulele

  11. Scrum at the team level – two popular methods… • Scrum • DSDM

  12. 1. ‘Scrum’ – a team level approach Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum http://bit.ly/About-Brian

  13. An overview of two agile methods2. ‘DSDM’ – a hybrid team/project level approach Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More)

  14. 2. What is Agile Governance?

  15. Agile inverts the normal project management paradigm… • Time Driven “I don’t want it perfect – I want it Thursday” Traditional Agile

  16. Agile focuses on flow… • … and minimises Work in Progress “There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse” Agile Traditional Design P/type Build P/type Test P/type ? Deploy P/type 18

  17. Can we define Agile Governance principles at several levels: • Project Level? • Governance of one specific project? • Scrum? DSDM? • Programme Level? • Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both: • Waterfall projects • & Agile projects? • Portfolio Level? • Governance across many projects?

  18. Is ‘Agile Governance’ really about being adaptable? Innovationproject Hybrid Programme Traditional Project Traditional Project Design P/type Build Innovation Project P/type Test Traditional Project P/type Deploy P/type Innovation Project Control-freak Governance Agile Governance Arms-lengthGovernance

  19. 3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of the unexpected? • A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory • Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions) • How long is a piece of string? (Fractals) • Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states) • Complex outcomes from simple systems • Self-organisation • Ants • People (so very different?)

  20. Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions) For want of a nail the shoe was lostFor want of a shoe the horse was lostFor want of a horse the battle was lost…

  21. Heat convection – any difference in initial conditions produces an unpredicatble outcome after a while:

  22. Increase the feedback and the Lorenz equation becomes unstable and ‘chaotic’:

  23. Complexity out of simplicitye.g. the Lorenz Equation

  24. Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions) For want of a nail the shoe was lostFor want of a shoe the horse was lostFor want of a horse the battle was lost…

  25. “No two snowflakes are the same”A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

  26. “No two snowflakes are the same”A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

  27. How long is a piece of string? (Fractals) Ruler length = x Answer = y Ruler length x/2 Answer = y*2.5

  28. The result runs away from you the closer you try to measure it…

  29. The ‘fractal dimension’ measures this disappearing event horizon

  30. How long will it take to add “just a bit more detail” to a business case or spec?

  31. Alternative stable states “Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems” Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001

  32. Self-organisation - Ants

  33. Self-organisation - Ants

  34. Self-organisation - People

  35. References • Daňa, Josef • “Chaos Theory in Project Management”, Masaryk University, Brno2014 • Christopher, Martin • “The Agile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets”, Industrial Marketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44 • Yang, C • “Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents”, Drexel University • Scheffer, Marten • Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001

  36. 4. Kick-off the development of a guide for Agile Governance

  37. Thanks for listening! Delegates’ 50% discount` brian.wernham@gmail.comBlog: brianwernham.wordpress.com @BrianUkulele http://bit.ly/About-Brian ` http://bit.ly/special-offer-CWBW50

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