Lars H. Backer lars.backer@mdmapping.se European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS)

1. The Geostat Hypotheses;In search of a high resolution foundation for Geostatistics, an interactive response to operational user needs in a time of transition. Lars H. Backerlars.backer@mdmapping.se European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS)

3. 1. We need toget the Big Picture

5. 2. We need a concrete set of Projects

7. 1. Makingsense of things? 2. Survive

8. Man environmental system (“Black Box perspective to all systems)” Formal reference system (GGIISS): Critical systems only INTERNET Reference:Subject 1: Axis of transformation A D A D Traders 2: Axis of power Reference:Friend SUBJECT Reference:Foe Pro Contra A. Analyse B. Design C. Build A D A D Guardians D. Use 3: Axis of communication Reference:Recipient Reference:Response Recipient Sender OBJECT Reality: Man environmental system (Critical systems only) Time

9. 3. We need a Method

11. Man environmental system (“Black Box perspective to all systems)” Formal reference system (GGIISS): Critical systems only Reference INTERNET INTERSUBJECT A.Analyse B.Design SCIENTIFIC PRACTICE PRACTICAL SCIENCE D.Manage C.Produce OBJECT Man environmental system (Critical systems only) TIME The World

12. Analysis, Synthesis, Action

13. 4. We need a shared Reference

14. Man Environmental Systems Society Environment Man-made environment Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) Properties (statistics) Cartographies (geodata) Reference literature (reference library) Natural environment Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) Properties (statistics) Cartographies (geodata) Reference literature (reference library) • Sociocultural system • Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) • Properties (statistics) • Cartographies (geodata) • Reference literature (reference library) • Economic system • Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) • Properties (statistics) • Cartographies (geodata) • Reference literature (reference library)

15. Spaceship Earth Global (1) 10 000 km (2) 1 000 km Regionaldevelopment (3) 100 km (4) 10 km (5) 1 km (6) 100 m Local

16. 5. We need adata Infrastructure

17. Double perspective : (1)”Interactingwholes” and (2) ”Kits of Parts”

20. Dynamic Models

21. Object / layer strategy for data Infrastructure Texts References Narratives Vocabularies Semantic modelling Properties / Statistics Object models Map Features (points, lines and polygons) Dynamics (objects and their relationships) over time

22. 6. We need to adapt our Statistics

23. http://www.ssb.no/en/software/pxmap/

24. The problem with statistics? 1. Continuous Phenomena 2. Aggregations to Adm. areas Discrete Objects Given Needed Standard Grid infrastructure Infrastructure of Spatial Data on Grids

25. 7. We need an infrastructure for Spatial Analysis

26. Why Grids? A foundation for statistics ”liberated” from administrative areas with: • Full coverage (covers land and sea) • Fixed, neutral system of small statistical areas (does not change over time) • Suitable for (cross disciplinary- cross border-) spatial analysis • Fullyscalable for local and global use • Compliant with existing key technologies for data capture • Widelyusedboth in Science and Practice

28. Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes Warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes, and there was plenty of warm water for Hurricane Katrina to build up strength once she crossed over Florida and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. This image depicts a 3-day average of actual sea surface temperatures for the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from August 25-27, 2005. Every area in yellow, orange or red represents 82 degrees Fahrenheit or above. The data came from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) instrument on NASA's Aqua Http://science.hq.nasa.gov/earth-sun/missions/satellite_17.htm

31. Spatial analysis The ”Kit of parts” perspective: • Required for both Ex Ante and Ex Post purposes! • Analysis, planning, implementation and evaluation of bothdirect and indirrect action. • We are good at: • spatial analysis of the envionment • We are less good at: • spatial analysis of society

34. Outer delineation Grids derived from coordinates:X,Y=1234567, 1234567 (1m grid.) (code: 12345671234567) X,Y=123456, 123456 (10m grid.) (code: 123456123456) X,Y=12345, 12345 (100m grid.) (code: 1234512345) X,Y=1234, 1234 (1km grid.) (code: 12341234) X,Y=123, 123 (10km grid.) (code: 123123) . . Quadtree for Grid=1000m Q1=500m Q2=250m Q3=125m Population statistics from the Stockholm region(2004)

35. Inner differentiation 1 Night time population (2004) Day time population (2004)

36. Inner differentiation 2 Day- and night- time population (as continuous phenomena)

37. Conclusions • “Think global, act local”The Systems perspective: A view to both the whole and the parts! • “If you cannot describe it you cannot manage it”Integrated Modeling with Objects in Space and Time: An Integrated model! • “Proof of the apple is in the eating”Utility: The ultimate proof of the GSS is its function as a practical tool! • To change the world No new information required , only to improvewhatwehave got! Keywords: cooperation, coordination, integration and harmonisation

38. Thank You! Lars H. Backerlars.backer@mdmapping.se European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS)

39. Population explosion? Resource constraints?Climate Change? Solvable Problems? Not without GeoStatistics !