Lars H. Backer lars.backer@scb.se Statistics Sweden Nordic Forum for GeoStatistics (NFGS)

1. The Geostat Hypotheses;In search of a high resolution foundation for Geostatistics in Europe; an interactive response to operational user needs in a time of transition. Lars H. Backerlars.backer@scb.se Statistics Sweden Nordic Forum for GeoStatistics (NFGS) European Forum for GeoStatistics (EFGS) European GridClub

2. 7 Proposals / Hypotheses Message • “Spaceship Earth” • “Cybernetics” • “Paradigm” • “S&TDI” (Spatial and Temporal Data Infrastructure) • “GIIS” (Global Integrated Information System) • “Extended ESS” • “ESSgrid” (The GEOSTAT project) Two Conclusions

3. 1. “Spaceship Earth”

4. 1. “Spaceship Earth” • That the earth is, due to the success of the modernistic project, no longer to be regarded as self-regulative & deterministic. The Earth is a closed system. • Blinded by our greed and lack of regard for our condition, we have “soiled our nest” and threaten destroy the prospects for future generations. • This means that the community of public authorities have to take command and responsibility, and “spread the wings of our intellect “ to fly or perish. • This is not so much a metaphysical as a very pragmatic quest

5. 2. “Cybernetics”

6. 2. “Cybernetics” • The global system cannot be re-built, but we know how to develop complex man environmental systems • Man-machine interactions are controlled with systems of human knowledge (private and/or shared systems of reference) • Cybernetics is the science of regulating information in closed systems. With the informational revolution we can build powerful cybernetic systems where both complex actions and feedback systems interact. • This will require the cooperation between a more scientific practice and a more practical science to build and use a shared operational model of vital structures and processes.

7. 3. “Paradigm” W. BRADFORD PALEY; Map of science in the journal Nature, SEED and Discover Magazines

8. 3. “Paradigm”

9. 3. “Paradigm” • To develop a “closed system” we will need a holistic or “ecological approach” that may require the cooperation of all key fields of human knowledge • “If we cannot describe it we cannot manage it”. We will require a system of models that is as simple as possible, but not too simple. • Although only the most critical information should be included, this will require close cooperation between sciences and professions that have lived “in vitro”. • We need to formulate no less than an outline for a “world culture”

10. 4. “S&TDI”

11. 4. “S&TDI” • Dynamic Models

12. 4. “S&TDI” • Narratives(Background information (grand narratives) that describes a problem in its context.). • Description of the reference system upon which the project is founded • Description of the project or projects designed to develop targeted systems • Object (concept) based semantic models. Objects may be described as systems of systems that form hierarchical structural and functional entities). • Spatial “object” models (“Kits of parts” structural models) • Spatial and temporal “object” models (“Interacting whole” dynamic models) • Spatial and Temporal Model[1] • Models 1: Statistics. (Statistics and systems of statistics) • Non spatial object at a given point in time (static) • Non spatial objects over a time period (dynamic) • Models 2: Cartographics[2] (Maps and systems of maps)Objects described with focus on spatial representations (Points, pixels (2d),voxels (3d)) • Spatial object at a given point in time (static) • Spatial objects over a time period (dynamic) • Reference information. (Documents and collections of related documents) • Reference information 1 (What to do): Information from the humanities (efforts to discuss values etc. in relation to actions) • Reference information 2 (How to do): Information from science (efforts to describe and explain systems)

13. 4. “S&TDI” • We need to share the same models of the world worldwide to serve coordinated actions. This must be done through the internet. This requires a shared spatial data infrastructure suited for this purpose. • We need the necessary infrastructure to discuss whole paradigms. This requires a data infrastructure that can handle both narratives and models. • Narratives require conventional alpha- numeric data infrastructures (texts and databases with reference catalogues) • Models require data infrastructures for spatial data (maps) integrated with empirical observations (statistics)

14. 5. “GIIS” • Data infrastructures (Infrastructures of data) • Focus: • Man-made environment • Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) • Properties (statistics) • Cartographies (geodata) • Reference literature (reference library) • Context: • Sociocultural system • Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) • Properties (statistics) • Cartographies (geodata) • Reference literature (reference library) • Economic system • Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) • Properties (statistics) • Cartographies (geodata) • Reference literature (reference library) • Natural environment • Narrative (digital and/or analogue documents) • Properties (statistics) • Cartographies (geodata) • Reference literature (reference library)

15. 5. “GIIS” • Modeling will require that complex man environmental systems are broken down to subsystems and subsystems of subsystems. • One method is first human systems vs. natural systems. Further to be divided into natural & manmade environment vs. social, cultural & economic human systems (of systems). • The GIIS proposal is a proposal for the structuring of spatial and temporal models of man environmental systems. The state of the art for modeling man environmental systems is to use an 2 or 3d object strategy that is based on semantic models / networks. • Spatial and Temporal models are processed with GIS / GIT. GI(I)S models are based on a layer method where all objects belonging to the same class is presented with the same variables in the same layer. Each object has its own distinct geography.

16. “Extended ESS” Iteration 1: • Analyse 1 (Exante information for “engineering”) • Design 1 • Produce 1 • Manage 1 (Expost information for “accountant”) Iteration 2: • Analyse 2 (Exante information for “engineering”) • Design 2 • Etc…… Iteration n: • How to integrate D. (“Ex post” information for “accountant”) and A. (“Ex ante” information for “engineering”) into one integrated system!

17. “Extended ESS” From Torsten Hägerstrand’s paper from 1955: Statistiska primäruppgifter flygkartering och “data processing” – maskiner. (Statistical micro data, aircraft surveillance and data processing machines; An integrating project.

18. 6. “Extended EES” • Harmonized foundation for both “grids” and “blobs” • A harmonized system for small area statistics for “accounting” purposes. (an ESSreg system for official statistics) • A harmonized system of small area statistics for “engineering” purposes. (an ESSgrid system for official statistics)

19. 7. “ESS_grid” • Modelling society A city is not a tree……….

20. 7. “ESS_grid”

21. 7. “ESS_grid” • We have a well functioning statistical system of statistics aggregated to administrative areas designed and built serve “accounting” purposes. • For building a global infrastructure of spatial information these traditional statistical systems represents an obstacle. Their data are not suitable for the “engineering” purposes required. • The current global challenge will a statistical systems that allows for integrated spatial analysis that involves qualified statistics from any available source. This calls for a shared of statistics that covers the whole earth, is liberated from administrative areas, and that allows for hierarchical analysis of datasets on all scale ranges from global to local.

22. Two Conclusions • The ESS should stand on two legs. The current to aggregate statistics to administrative areas for “official accounting” purposes, and the other a general, full coverage hierarchical system for any kind of spatial statistics to serve current pressing “engineering” tasks. • The GEOSTAT, hopefully to be an ESSnet project aims to introduce a general purpose grid based system of spatial statistics for the NSI’s and Europe

23. Population explosion? Resource constraints?Climate Change? Solvable Problems? Not without GeoStatistics !

24. Thank You! The Geostat ProjectEuropean Forum for GeoStatistics Statistics Sweden lars.backer@scb.se