Problems of over population

1. Problems of over population Chapter 9

2. K-Carrying Capacity • What happens if we exceed carrying capacity of Earth? • Population and individual consumption determine the carrying capacity for humans. • Human growth is on a J curve. Why? • Adaptability • Modern agriculture • Death rates dropped (sanitation, health care, education) • The increase in the word population is due to the sharp decrease in death rate rather than a sharp rise in births! • Unevenly distributed world wide • Developed 0.17%/year • Developing 1.4%/year (UN World Population Sheet 2010)

3. Age structure • Histograms of age and population • Pre-reproductive • Reproductive • Post-reproductive • 2010 15% of world population was under 15 • 30% in developing • 16% in developed • 1-4 on the planet • These 1.8 billion people will hit reproductive ages in the next 14 years, thus most population growth will occur in developing countries • Seniors are fastest growing • 65 and older in 2050 1-6 senior • How will we support them? • 30 seniors/100workers 2025 by 2050 61/100

4. Effect of aging population • Graying of America-Baby Boom • Japan by 2050 40% of population will be 65 or older • By 2020 China will start graying • Care of elderly • Decline work force • Funds to support older population-larger share of health care cost • Decreasing tax base

5. Problems of Population Decline (Replacement TFR) • Baby bust or death boom • Threaten economic growth • Labor shortage • Less tax revenue • Less entrepreneurship and business formation • Less likelihood of technology development • Increasing deficit of pension and health care costs • Pensions cut and retirement age increased

6. Problems • Countries with the highest TFR usually have the greatest hunger • There is enough food, but distribution is uneven • Conflict also influences food distribution • Economics • Stable populations promote economic development • Resources • Urbanization

7. Urbanization • Populations are increasingly concentrated in cities • Developed countries grew slow enough that the infrastructure grew with them • Developing countries grew and are growing so fast that infrastructure does not grow with them • Shantytowns with no proper sanitation, water, or services • Homelessness • UN in 2005 100 million homeless or live in unacceptable condition worldwide • 78 million in India alone • 643,067 in US

8. Urban Sprawl • http://renci.uncc.edu/developing/

9. Slowing population growth • Reduce poverty through economic development and education • Elevate status of women • Encourage family planning and reproductive health care All evident in transition stages!

10. Economics • Modern technology will raise per capita income • Means for health care and family planning • Better quality of life

11. Women • Women tend to have fewer children • when educated • Have the ability to control fertility • Earn income • And live in societies that do not suppress their rights

12. Family Planning • Educational planning and clinical services • Provide information on birth spacing. Birth control, and health care for women and infants • Family planning reduces population and abortion rates • Family planning is responsible for a drop of 55% in TFR in developed countries (UN population division) from 6.0 in 1960 to 2.7 in 2010 • Studies show that each dollar spent on family planning in countries like Thailand, Egypt, and Bangladesh saves $10-16 in health, education, and social services by preventing unwanted births.

13. Family planning • Still problems • UN population Fund 42% of all pregnancies in less developed countries are unplanned and 26% end in abortion • 2007 that half in US is unplanned and result in 1.4 births and 1.3 million abortions • 201 million couples in less developed countries want to limit their children and determine spacing, but lack access to family planning • Family planning could prevent 52 million unwanted pregnancies, 22 million abortions, 1.4 million infant deaths, and 142,000 pregnancy related deaths EACH YEAR! Could reduce population by 1 billion by 2050 at an average cost of $20 a couple.

14. China • Most populous country in the world 1.3 billion • Between 1972-2010 China’s birth rate has been cut in half. 5.7-1.5 TFR • Strict from 1979-1984 then relaxed and now uses education • With 2.1 US is growing faster than China

15. India • Family planning in 1952 with modest success • 1952-400 million now 1.2 billion (2nd largest) • 32% under 15 • By 2015 it will be most populous in the world • 4th largest economy and growing middle class • Severe poverty, malnutrition, and environmental problems. Will grow with population growth. • 1-4 live in slums in urban populations • 2/3 live in rural villages with little progress and prosperity • ¾ live on $2.25 a day (China has half the poverty and environmental problems with more population) • Government promotes smaller families • Male preference • Need children to work for them in old age • 9/10 have access to birth control but only 48% use it (China 86%) • 17% of the people but 2.3% of the world’s resources • Will economic growth help?