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Project Management and Production of Digital Content PDI E2005 Room 4A.16

Project Management and Production of Digital Content PDI E2005 Room 4A.16. Session 5 27 September 2005 Tine Sørensen Tine Sørensen. 17:00-18:00 18:00-18:10 18:10-19:00 19:00 -19:10 19:10-20:50 20:50 -21:00. Risk - lecture (part 1) Break Risk Management - lecture (part 2) Break

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Project Management and Production of Digital Content PDI E2005 Room 4A.16

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  1. Project Management and Production of Digital ContentPDI E2005Room 4A.16 Session 5 27 September 2005 Tine Sørensen Tine Sørensen

  2. 17:00-18:00 18:00-18:10 18:10-19:00 19:00 -19:10 19:10-20:50 20:50 -21:00 Risk - lecture (part 1) Break Risk Management - lecture (part 2) Break Case 1; group work (planning; risk) Evaluation of session 5; introduction to session 6 Today’s programme - Risk Management

  3. Contents of the lecture • We will take a closer look at: • Risk and threats • Risk as a culturally determined phenomenon • Risk thresholds • Risk categories • The SWOT method • Risc analysis • Identifying risks • Uvisheder • Nyheder • Dependencies • Quantifying risk • Risc management (planning, supervision og monitoring) • The relationship between risk, organisational culture and project size • We will address the following questions: • How does one proactively manage risk in small and large projects? • Damage control when risks make themselves felt - strategies and metods?

  4. Reading • Giddens, Anthony. Runway World: How globalisation is Reshaping Our Lives (New Edition) Chapter 2. Pages 20-35

  5. Risk - definition Connotations: Loss, injury, danger, hazard, gambling, damage,

  6. Risiko / Risk - definition

  7. The concept first became widespread in the 16th and 17th centuries. It appeared in connection with voyages of discovery into uncharted waters The emergence of the concept of ”risk”

  8. Risk • Found in future-oriented societies • An event that may take place; if it does will have consequences... Somewhat ambiguous: • negative connotations, something we hope will not happen • RISK ≠ OPPORTUNITY

  9. Risk • ...positive, too [risk = excitement, adventure]

  10. External risk Earthquakes Tsunami Hurricanes Epidemics Famine It is God’s will Fatalism Reactive Manufactured risk Greenhouse effect Acid rain Barsebäck/Chernobyl/ 3 Mile Island Redwine GMA SARS/Avian Influenza Risk assessment Risk management Proactive Risk Giddens page 26...

  11. Resources Time Quality/ Features Risk from the perspective of the client

  12. Risc from PLS-DDF study

  13. Customer risks ”likelihood” of it occuring

  14. ”impact” if the event occurs

  15. Quantification of risk • Risk exposure • = likelihood X impact

  16. Monitor and have alternatives ready Seriously consider dropping plan. “Plan B” instead Risk Highly likely Not very likely Monitor Monitor closely and have alternatives ready 0 Quantification of risk Significant but manageable Show-stopper Impact

  17. Monitor and have alternatives ready Seriously consider dropping plan. “Plan B” instead Risk Highly likely Not very likely Monitor Monitor closely and have alternatives ready 0 Task 7 - risk in GeoWeb • Working in pairs, review your analysis last week of the GeoWeb project • Use the matrix to classify the risks encountered Significant but manageable Show-stopper Impact

  18. SWOT analysis Strengths Weaknesses

  19. SWOT analysis threats opportunities

  20. SWOT analysis positive negative Strengths Weaknesses external issues internal issues Opportunities Threats

  21. Let’s change the perspective... ...from customer to supplier

  22. Unknowns - things we don’t know Novelties - something we haven’t tried before Dependencies - something in the project that depends on something else being done first (both dependencies in the project and external dependencies) Resources Time Quality Features Risks - a typology

  23. Unknowns 2. Novelties 3. Dependencies Resources Time Quality Features Task 8 - Read the case and classify the problems

  24. Using problems from Task 8 Discuss the problems, the options for solving them and the implications of each option Which problems have a high impact (show stoppers)? Resources Time Quality Features Task 9 - discuss the options & their implications

  25. Risk assessment • Risk exposure • = likelihood X impact • If an event is foreseen in Scoping one can either • act proactively the reduce the likelihood of the risk occuring • have a contingency plan in place in case it does

  26. Risks How to handle risks when Murphy is at large....

  27. A form used to assess risk in a media company form

  28. Rationale=justification

  29. Task 10 • Working with your partner, review the categories of risk covered • What is the weighting of technology risks compared with organisational or business-related risks? • Is there anything important you feel is missing on the list? • Is there anything you find surprising?

  30. Payment withheld Unilateral changes in scope Mismatch betweenthe customer and the supplier’s view of visual design ”Passing the Buck” excuses that lead to demands for economic compensation Side 276-295 Risk in small multimedia projects (B2B)

  31. John K. Kristensens three risk parameters Structure (management culture) Technology Size Page 74-78 Risk management

  32. Risk Analysis • Work through the detailed plan and evaluate risks: • New timeframe • New economical issues • (New) Technology • Resource changes • Delivery problems • Ask: • What can go wrong • How, when, where • Courses • Plan through: • Points of control • Instructions

  33. Håndtering af risiko i store og små projekter Stramtstruktureret Løststruktureret Lav risiko Lav risiko, påvirkelig af svag ledelse Kendt teknologi Meget lav risiko Meget lav risiko, påvirkelig af svag ledelse Medium risiko Meget stor risiko Ny teknologi Medium til lav risiko Stor risiko

  34. Risk Analysis • Work through the detailed plan and evaluate risks: • New timeframe • New economical issues • (New) Technology • Resource changes • Delivery problems • Ask: • What can go wrong • How, when, where • Courses • Plan through: • Points of control • Instructions "If you perceive that there are four possible ways in which a procedure can go wrong and circumvent these, then a fifth way, unprepared for, will promptly develop." Murphy's Sixth Law

  35. Untill next time • Reading: "The Project Manager" by Richard Newton • 7 – Managing your project • What to manage • Taking management action • How should you manage • Change control and management • Decision making • 8 – The team • Getting the basics right • Motivating and building the team • Project team management challenges • Broader context • 2. Case Work • By session 6 on October 4th you should have • Worked through your project plan a final time

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