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U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2004

U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2004. Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 30 th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 24-28, 2005. Outline. Drought Highlights —Southwest Alleviation, Northwest Development, and Midwest Summer Development Drought Forecasts —How are we doing?.

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U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2004

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  1. U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2004 Douglas Le Comte NOAA/CPC 30th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop October 24-28, 2005

  2. Outline • Drought Highlights—Southwest Alleviation, Northwest Development, and Midwest Summer Development • Drought Forecasts—How are we doing?

  3. What A Difference A Season Made in the West!

  4. October vs April Drought

  5. Water Year Precipitation

  6. Snow Water Content April 2005

  7. Impressive Snowpack on Snowbird November 7, 2004 A pretty good omen that the 2004-05 snow season would be extraordinary!

  8. EL NINO’S and SOUTHWESTERN DROUGHT Expected range of SSTs WETTER WARMER SSTs Although El Nino’s are generally associated with improved drought conditions in the U.S. Southwest, this is by no means assured. The best odds for improvement come with stronger events (SST anomalies over +1.5 deg. C).

  9. Streamflow Forecasts April 1, 2005

  10. Spring-Summer Changes

  11. April vs July 2005

  12. Changes to October 4, 2005

  13. August vs October 2005

  14. October 4 vs October 11 2005

  15. The Seasonal Drought Outlooks

  16. Selected Drought Outlook Tools • 2-Week Soil Moisture • Seasonal Constructed Analog Soil Forecasts • NCDC Palmer Drought Amelioration Probability Maps

  17. CPC 2-Wk Soil Moisture Forecast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/cas.shtml

  18. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/cas.shtml Constructed Analog Soil Moisture USA Forecast Observed

  19. NCDC Drought Amelioration Probabilities

  20. How Are We Doing?

  21. How Did We Do With the Western Drought? Too cautious in September! Finally got it right in Dec!

  22. Time Series of Verification Scores Mean Pct Correct 59% Mean Persistence Score 45%

  23. Selected Future Improvements • Better seasonal temp/precip forecasts thanks to new consolidation tool • Better seasonal soil moisture forecasts from NLDAS projects (Univ. of WA, Princeton, NCEP) • Research leading to improved understanding of the underlying causes of drought (e.g., air-sea and ground-air interactions)

  24. Parting Wisdom • “If you’re going to predict, predict often. As long as you keep updating your prediction, people forget your last prediction.” Milton Friedman

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