1 / 32

Scotland’s Ageing Workforce: An emerging market for Universities?

Scotland’s Ageing Workforce: An emerging market for Universities?. Graham Smith Centre for Lifelong Learning University of Strathclyde Scottish Higher Education Employability Conference, Edinburgh, 2 June 2011. Contents. Changing demographics and observations

jorryn
Download Presentation

Scotland’s Ageing Workforce: An emerging market for Universities?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Scotland’s Ageing Workforce: An emerging market for Universities? Graham Smith Centre for Lifelong Learning University of Strathclyde Scottish Higher Education Employability Conference, Edinburgh, 2 June 2011

  2. Contents • Changing demographics and observations • Engaging older workers – an empirical study • Reflections

  3. Changing demographics: Scotland • Changing population structure and ageing population • Below replacement level fertility rate • Increasing life expectancy • Historical negative net migration

  4. 1. Population change • UK Population (Thousands) 1901 to 2009 • Increase: • 68% • 16% • 45% • 61% Sources: Adapted from Hicks and Allen, 2009 ; 2001 UK Census and Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2009.

  5. Population change Comparison of population change for UK countries, 2008-2033 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010:

  6. Changing age structure The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 1999-2009 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

  7. 2. Low fertility rate • Total fertility rate and replacement rate, Scotland, 1951-2008 Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

  8. 3. Increasing life expectancy* • UK 1901 • M = 45 F = 49 • UK 2007-09 • M = 77.9 F = 81.9 • Scotland • M = 74.8 F = 79.7 • Kensington • M = 83.7 F = 87.8 • Glasgow • M = 70.8 F = 77.1 • (East End Glasgow = 63.5 for men; lower than Iraq = 68.3) Source: GRO Scotland, 2010 and ONS,2010

  9. 4. Migration • Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2009 Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

  10. Changing age structure • Projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, • 2008-2033 Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

  11. Change in births Projected % change in births (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

  12. Change in young people Projected % change in population aged 0-15 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

  13. Change in number of older people Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age¹ (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

  14. Observation: Changing policy • Increasing of state pension age in process – increase to 66 by 2020, 67 by 2036 and 68 by 2046 • Removal of Default Retirement Age (DRA) • Encouraging individuals to work longer through reducing benefits and removing barriers e.g. DRA But here lies the paradox: government are encouraging individuals to work longer, yet strategies for workforce rationalisation tend to target older workers • Workforce ageing: 33.6% of public sector workers are aged 50+ (Loretto, 2011) Pensions Bill, 2011

  15. Observation: Organisational response

  16. Observation: Impact on individuals • Increasing uncertainty • Once out of the labour market, older adults less likely to re-enter labour market than younger people (TAEN, 2009) • A real need for advice and guidance

  17. Impact on future strategy • There will be fewer young people in the future • There will be a greater number of older adults in the future • 61 FE and HE institutions will compete for declining number of young people • Is ‘Internationalisation’ the only viable option? • Or is there an emerging market…………….?

  18. Opportunity in the face of adversity? • University of Strathclyde 10/11 – 3% of UG/PG students aged 50+ • Cardonald College Glasgow 10/11 – 12.4% of students aged 50+ • Centre for Lifelong Learning Evening and Weekend programme: • 2005/6 = 16% of students aged 50+ • 2010/11 = 35% of students aged 50+ • Learning in Later Life programme: 3,900 students aged 50+

  19. Skills for Scotland: A lifelong skills strategy • Application 2007 – National ESF Priority 2 project led by Adam Smith College • Commenced June 2008 with 13 national partner organisations • Key target groups: • Low skilled, low paid employees including those with low levels of literacy and numeracy • E-skills for potential new entrepreneurs and managers • Training, mentoring and support for older workers and BME communities

  20. Realising Your Potential project Key objectives of the project are to assist older workers aged 50+ to: • Re-engage with learning • Update their existing skills and develop new skills • Assess current work ability and explore work potential • Enhance their future employability • Consider working longer and/or postpone retirement

  21. ‘Double Loop’ learning model Stage 5 Progress onto new learning opportunities Based on Argyris & Schön, 1978

  22. Findings: Beneficiary data

  23. Findings: Learning and qualifications • 19% of participants considered to be low skilled (SCQF Level 2 and below) • 21% participated in formal learning in past 5 years with 86% participating in informal learning • All participants had experienced classroom based learning • 25% experience of distance learning e.g. Open University • 42% experience of on-line learning • Two groups delivered on employer premises (Civil Service and Health Authority) - 95% of CS group left school with no formal qualifications

  24. Findings: Accessing advice and guidance • Lack of awareness of national all-age guidance service and services available – 78% unaware • 20% likely or extremely likely to use services of Skills Development Scotland • 38% unsure and 42% unlikely to engage • The overall perception of the service was: ‘not sure it’s relevant to me’ • Similar challenge for Universities……………?

  25. Findings: Future uncertainty • 61% of participants likely or extremely likely to work beyond Statutory Retirement Age • A further 30% unsure whether they will work beyond SRA • Only 9% indicated they were unlikely to work beyond SRA

  26. Evaluation: Questionnaire • Q. Since your participation in the programme, which of the following • would best describe your current situation?

  27. Evaluation: Questionnaire • Q. What personal outcomes do you feel have been achieved since • completing the programme?

  28. Evaluation: Questionnaire • Q. What personal outcomes do you feel have been achieved since • completing the programme?

  29. Reflection: State Pension Age • Both Men and Women Source: Pensions Advisory Service, 2011 • Re-defining employability and learning in later life

  30. Reflection: Transitions in later life • For many individuals, working in later life is a dot on the horizon • Capacity to deal with change and uncertainty varies significantly from person to person and is amplified by age • A number of ‘life transitions’ exist over the age of 50 Source: Phillipson, 2002

  31. Reflection: Encouraging lifelong learning • One of the greatest predictors of participation in learning at a later stage in life is the amount of initial education • The amount of initial education is likely to be greater for future generations Source: Smith, 2010

  32. Thank You Contact details: Graham Smith graham.smith@strath.ac.uk

More Related