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March 2006 Climate Review

March 2006 Climate Review. Wanqiu Wang April 7, 2006. Outline. Equatorial SSTs and associated fields Geographical distribution of anomalies CPC Forecast verification Tropical cyclones Tropical MJO ENSO forecast. Equatorial SSTs and associated fields. February 2006. March 2006.

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March 2006 Climate Review

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  1. March 2006 Climate Review Wanqiu Wang April 7, 2006

  2. Outline • Equatorial SSTs and associated fields • Geographical distribution of anomalies • CPC Forecast verification • Tropical cyclones • Tropical MJO • ENSO forecast

  3. Equatorial SSTs and associated fields

  4. February 2006 March 2006

  5. sea surface temperature anomaly (°C)

  6. 5S-5N average

  7. 2. Geographical distribution of anomalies

  8. March 2006 monthly mean

  9. March record-low average temperature (F)

  10. Precipitation

  11. March record-high precipitation (inches)

  12. Most March days with measurable rain

  13. Record-Low March Precipitation (Inches)

  14. 3. CPC Forecast verification

  15. All Non-EC % Cov 25.2 56.7 44.4

  16. All Non-EC % Cov 17.5 60.3 29.1

  17. Mar 2006 TOfficial, Update, Observations 0.5 Lead UPD OBS Off. Up. Change All Stations 14.5 19.7 +5.2 Non-EC: 44.7 71.9 +27.2 % Cov: 32.5 27.4 -5.1

  18. Mar 2006 POfficial, Update, Observations 0.5 Lead UPD OBS Off. Up. Change All Stns: -1.7 8.1 +9.8 Non-EC-2.7 25.0 +27.7 % Cov: 62.4 32.5 -29.9

  19. OBS CFS 10-day lead CFS 20-day lead Nino34 regression CFS 30-day lead CFS 0-day lead

  20. OBS CFS 10-day lead 0.55 CFS 20-day lead Nino34 regression 0.21 0.51 CFS 30-day lead CFS 0-day lead 0.48 0.64

  21. 4. Tropical cyclones

  22. Tropical cyclones in Mar 2006 CARINA 23 Feb - 2 Mar 2006

  23. Tropical cyclones in Mar 2006 DIWA 4 - 8 Mar 2006

  24. Tropical cyclones in Mar 2006 LARRY 18 – 20 Mar 2006

  25. Tropical cyclones in Mar 2006 WATI 19 – 24 Mar 2006

  26. Tropical cyclones in Mar 2006 FLOYD 21 – 27 Mar 2006

  27. Tropical cyclones in Mar 2006 GLENDA 27 – 31 Mar 2006

  28. Tropical Cyclone Hubert

  29. 5. Tropical MJO

  30. MJO in Mar 2006 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (5°S-5°N) Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation. Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation. Time Weak to moderate MJO activity was observed during the September-November and January-February time periods. Thru March 30, the MJO signal remained incoherent. Longitude

  31. MJO in Mar 2006

  32. 6. ENSO forecast

  33. December March

  34. Thank you !

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