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29th EWGLAM meeting, Dubrovnik, October 2007

Status of AROME model delelopments Yann Seity, Pierre Brousseau, Thibaut Montmerle, Gwennaëlle Hello, Sylvie Malardel,Valéry Masson, Yves Bidet, Patrick Santurette ( Météo-France) …. 29th EWGLAM meeting, Dubrovnik, October 2007. Historical introduction Design of the ‘pre operational suite’

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29th EWGLAM meeting, Dubrovnik, October 2007

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  1. Status of AROME model delelopments Yann Seity, Pierre Brousseau, Thibaut Montmerle, Gwennaëlle Hello, Sylvie Malardel,Valéry Masson, Yves Bidet, Patrick Santurette ( Météo-France) … 29th EWGLAM meeting, Dubrovnik, October 2007

  2. Historical introduction • Design of the ‘pre operational suite’ • Examples of ‘good AROME forecasts’ • Remaining known problems and solutions • Conclusion and outlooks

  3. Introduction • Application of Research to Operational at Meso-scalE • First version of the AROME ‘prototype’ in 2004 on CY28 -NH CY32T3 : RRTM, FM (6 bands) Surfex 2 bf5 MASDEV_47 : ICE3, 1D turb (BL89 closure), KFB

  4. Introduction • Daily experimentations of the prototype on ¼ of France since May 2005 AROME FRAN (512x512) • Daily experimentations on France since January 2007 (NEC SX8R) without data assimilation

  5. Introduction • September 2007 : Configuration of AROME suite on operational NEC computer with data assimilation (30 h forecasts at 0, 6, 12 and 18 TU) • Spring 2008 : AROME pre-operational suit managed by operational team • October 2008 : AROME declared operational at Meteo-France • End of 2009 : NEC v2 : x5 : increase vertical resolution Domain provided to forecasters (LAT-LON 0.025) Model domain (600x512x41)

  6. First design of the ‘operational’ suite Technical overview : Cycling of hydrometeores 60s time step, Full radiation every 15’ 64 processors, hourly coupling with ALADIN-France = 30’ elapse Coupling files Guess

  7. First design of the ‘operational’ suite AROME suite : on 64 procs, FC24 performed in 30’ elapse Cost of AROME Physics : Currently being optimized by NEC Ingeneers

  8. Historical introduction • Design of the ‘pre operational suite’ • Examples of ‘good AROME forecasts’ • Remaining known problems and solutions • Conclusion and outlooks

  9. Cumulative rainfalls :August 21st 2007 RR 24h 6-6TU AROME Radar ALADIN

  10. Cumulative rainfalls :August 23rd 2007 RR 24h 6-6TU AROME Radar AROME : Good structures and maxima localisation, but excessive in terms of intensity. ALADIN

  11. Foehn over « Massif Central » • HU AROME FC+12h • Satellite VIS picture

  12. Vertical velocity, w (updrafts in red) Frontal precipitation bands (1) A thin cold front precipitating band. • Système frontal dont la structure verticale présente une cassure : en altitude le front se détache de sa partie en basses couches et le front dans les couches moyennes et supérieures (au-dessus de 700 hPa environ) avance plus vite que la trace de basses couches. Simulated radar reflectivity (FC+13h ) vs radar picture, 1 Mars 2007 ; 13 UTC

  13. 31 May 2006 on SUDE domain • 31 May 2006 • Change of wind and Temperature due to cold air coming from the Alps

  14. AROME (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) ALADIN (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) 31 May 2006 : 9 UTC

  15. AROME (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) ALADIN (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) 31 May 2006 : 12 UTC

  16. AROME (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) ALADIN (T. 2 m., v.20 m. et Ps) 31 May 2006 : 18 UTC

  17. Temperatures (1)

  18. A Flood case

  19. A Flood case AROME cumulative rainfall from 3 TU to 6 TU (FC30-FC27 )

  20. Historical introduction • Design of the ‘pre operational suite’ • Example of ‘good AROME forecasts’ • Remaining known problems and solutions • Conclusion and outlooks

  21. P1= min (1, w Δt ) (Proportion of the layer falling during dt) Δz P2= max (0, 1 - Δz ) (Proportion of Fn falling through the layer during dt ) wΔt Fn+1= P1. ρ.qr.Δz + P2.Fn Δt AROME 60s AROME Sedim Statistic sedimentation scheme for precipitations Before : Eulerian discretisation with time splitting -> costly. Now : in CY32T2 and MASDEV_47 : Fn n w. Δt w, qr Δz n+1 Fn+1 = ? (Yves Bouteloup, JF Geleyn) Evaluation over Austria for August 2005 (15 % of physical cost gain)

  22. ALADIN/AROME Scores (32 days FRAN domain) 20070516  20070620 (32 days) Ps ddV10m T2m ffV10m RR Hu2m RMSE Biais AROME ALADIN Double pain ?

  23. Over-estimated downdrafts (April 11th 2007) Arome REF Arome Hydro Arome NO DifHor Méso-NH T and wind near the surface

  24. Arome REF Arome Hydro Arome NO DifHor Méso-NH Instantaneous rainfalls

  25. Arome REF Arome Hydro Arome NO DifHor Méso-NH Wind strength near surface

  26. New shallow convection scheme : EDKF • Motivation : improve representation of stratocumulus ans shallow cumulus. • Mass flux formulation (Malardel Masson, Soares et al. 2004) with subgrid autoconversion. Independant from turbulence scheme. • Validated on 1d cases (Wangara, Ayotte), and in some 3d cases in AROME and MesoNH, with some CLOUDNET datas over Cabauw. • Updraft comparison with RACMO (KNMI) • Will be used in AROME daily runs in one month when merged to the recent CY32T3.

  27. Ta Ta Last model level (17m) SBL laws Ts Ts T2m Paulson Sol Sol SBL CANOPY scheme (Masson and Ramdi) 6 added levels and turb scheme in surfex Surface scores Actually : T2m Geleyn N2M=2 (too cold) N2M=1 (too hot) Evaluation on July 2007 and January 2007 on South East France domain :

  28. July 2007 January 2007 Canopy (blue) Ref (pink) Stations z>300m Stations z<300m T2m

  29. July 2007 January 2007 Canopy (blue) Ref (pink) Stations z>300m Stations z<300m Hu2m

  30. July 2007 January 2007 Canopy (blue) Ref (pink) Stations z>300m Stations z<300m FF V10m

  31. Behaviour over sea (5th August 2007) Wind gusts (new AROME diagnostic based on TKE, available since CY32T2) too strong associated with a unrealistic convective system starting from spain and moving over the bay of Biscay. Other cases reported by Hirlam over Baltic sea. Still under investigations…

  32. Conclusion and outlook • AROME is on the way for an operationnal use at Meteo-France by october 2008 • New surface diagnostics has been developped and will continue to be evaluated on FRAN domain. • Statistical formulation of precipitations sedimentations saves computer time • EDKF convection scheme will replace KFB scheme soon • Remaining problems are under investigation (numerical diffusion setting, behaviour over sea) • Evaluation of the model will continue with more interaction with forecasters • Training of forecasters on how to use the model in spring 2008 • Test of hail (available in MASDEV_47 Meso-NH physics)

  33. MAP-DPHASE and COPS • International experiment since 1st June 2007 (to 30 November 2007 for MAP-DPHASE) COPS DPHA

  34. Chemistry scheme HNO3 • MesoNH Chemistry scheme OK in AROME • (P.Tulet) • interactive CO2 (C. Sarat, P.Tulet) • Dusts (evaluation on AMMA) CO2 Dusts : MesoNH

  35. Val d’Isère 2009 • AROME 1km : Val d’Isère 2009 (support to world skiing championship)

  36. Thank you for your attention ! Yann Seity, Pierre Brousseau, Thibaut Montmerle, Gwennaëlle Hello, Sylvie Malardel,Valéry Masson, Yves Bidet, Patrick Santurette ( Météo-France) … 29th EWGLAM meeting, Dubrovnik, October 2007

  37. Assimilation of Doppler radar winds AROME Assim AROME-AD AROME Assim-Doppler AROME Assim green AROME Assim Doppler AROME AD AROME Assim Doppler Observations

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