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Class 17: Lomborg

Class 17: Lomborg. P. Brian Fisher CofC : POLS 405 Spring 2010. Vid. Lomborg , “ Our Priorities For Saving the World ” (17m). Lomborg’s Arguments on Temperature Increase. Global Mean Temp is projected to increase 4.7°C by 2100; however, no one lives at this temperature.

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Class 17: Lomborg

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  1. Class 17: Lomborg P. Brian Fisher CofC: POLS405 Spring 2010

  2. Vid • Lomborg, “Our Priorities For Saving the World” (17m)

  3. Lomborg’s Arguments on Temperature Increase • Global Mean Temp is projected to increase 4.7°C by 2100; however, no one lives at this temperature. • Lomborg: True, there will be more heat deaths from GCC, but there will also be fewer cold deaths (more people die from cold than heat). • Many deaths are from heat-island effects in cities, and we can alleviate them, by planting more trees (to create more moisture) and by creating more reflective surfaces

  4. Lomborg on Kyoto • Temperature decrease from Kyoto measures would be 0.1°F by 2050 and 0.3°F by 2100—this is insignificant • Without a Post-Kyoto agreement, the effects from the 2008-2012 would only be reduce temp for 7 days. • Costs: could be as high as $180b/yr (based on 2008 data) or 0.5% global GDP • Lomborg: World will get more efficient as technology increases (e.g. In US, avg car has “improved its mileage by 67% since 1973.”

  5. CAFE Standards 1978-2006

  6. Lomborg’s Costs of GCC • Cutting carbon dioxide costs about $20 per ton and it only does $2 worth of good. • McKinnsey Cost Abatement: They concluded that we could stabilize at 450ppm at zero net cost. • At 450ppm, peaking now, would likely result in temp increase of less than 3°C, and most likely about 2.5°C • Lomborgest that to stabilize at 2.7°C would require $84t. • Benefits wouldn’t outpace costs until 2250.

  7. Lomborg’s Proposal • Massive investments in R&D • Commit 0.05% of GDP • Should be enough to keep temp from increasing beyond 5°F (from today). • Avoid emission cuts—waste of $$ • b/c “global warming damages run about 1% GDP, while cost is at 2% GDP • Stern: Cost is 1% GDP while benefits are 20% (giving increasing costs of inaction)

  8. Evidence suggests… • 1. Understanding of GCC is shaped by exaggerated accounts by media • 2. we are overly obsessed with regulating CO2—we should consider the positive effects from increased warming • 3. GCC is not the only issue we need to tackle. There are other more important priorities.

  9. Other Issues and Facts Every year… • 4m die from malnutrition • $12b could halve the deaths • 3m from HIV/AIDS • 2.5m from air pollution • 2m from lack of clean drinking water • 1m from malaria • $13b would halve the # of deaths.

  10. Global Priority List from Lomborg’s Copenhagen Consesus

  11. Millennium Development Goals • Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education • Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women • Goal 4: Reduce child mortality • Goal 5: Improve maternal health • Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases • Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability • Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

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