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The next big earthquake at SFO (coming soon)

The next big earthquake at SFO (coming soon). Tom Brocher USGS, Coordinator, NC Earthquake Hazard Investigations http://earthquake.usgs.gov/. M7 1868 Hayward quake. Recent M5.6 earthquake on the Calaveras Fault- this was only a moderate size quake - it wasn’t the Big One!.

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The next big earthquake at SFO (coming soon)

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  1. The next big earthquake at SFO (coming soon) Tom Brocher USGS, Coordinator, NC Earthquake Hazard Investigations http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ M7 1868 Hayward quake

  2. Recent M5.6 earthquake on the Calaveras Fault- this was only a moderate size quake - it wasn’t the Big One! ~64,000 responses to Did You Feel It? Example from M5.4 Alum Rock earthquake on the Calaveras Fault

  3. The really big one (M7.8)! 45 seconds of strong shaking

  4. Almost none of the San Francisco Peninsula was developed in 1906 S. F. Daly City S. San Francisco Pacifica Millbrae San Mateo Belmont Redwood City Half Moon Bay Palo Alto

  5. SEVEN DEADLY FAULTS 4% 3% 3% In the next 30 years there is a 62%, nearly 2 in 3 chance, of a magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquake in the greater Bay Area. Hazard is highest in the East Bay due to the larger number of faults there, and due to the Hayward Fault, which has a high hazard. 27% 10% 11% 21%

  6. Nowhere to Hide Ground shaking levels from the 1906 quake USGS, 2005

  7. Loma Prieta was NOT the big one for Millbrae! 30 Loma Prieta Earthquakes = 1906 Earthquake 1906 quake Millbrae Millbrae San Mateo 1989 Loma Prieta

  8. 1868 Hayward Earthquake “the great San Francisco earthquake” Shaking intensities were strong from San Leandro south through Hayward towards Alvarado They were weaker in Oakland and Mission San Jose

  9. SFO

  10. M6.7 to M7 1868 Hayward earthquake • 30 fatalities, 5 in San Francisco (12th most deadly US earthquake) • $350,000 in damage in San Francisco alone • Extensive damage in San Leandro, Hayward, and Fremont

  11. Hayward was heavily damaged by the 1868 earthquake. “Practically not a house was left on its foundations…” “Many buildings were much damaged.” (Lawson Report, 1908). Edmunson Warehouse Haywards Hotel Bancroft Library

  12. Bancroft Library Settlement Reinstein Clothing Factory, 314 California St.

  13. Strong ground shaking Will Cause the Most Damage

  14. Apartments over a garage: Soft-story, corner building collapse (Marina) 1989 House over a garage: Soft-story collapse Santa Cruz Mountains

  15. Communications will be lost Cellphones won’t work (didn’t work last month) Built 1937 KGO Radio Towers M6.9 1989 Loma Prieta quake

  16. The local geology makes a huge difference in how the ground shakes. Loma Prieta recordings from 1989.

  17. Liquefaction and ground failure

  18. 1906 quake Water and gas mains broken

  19. Port of SF USGS OFR 2006-1037 101 I-280 SFO 92 San Andreas Fault 101 I-280

  20. A recent USGS map HF ? ? ? ? ? SAF

  21. 1989 Favorable Fire Conditions Fire Following Earthquake Marina fire

  22. Part of San Francisco burned in 1906

  23. Lifelines/Infrastructure

  24. Aftershocks will hamper search and rescue

  25. Putting Down Roots in Earthquake Country Secure your family and your residence. A guide for preparing for the next big quake.

  26. ShakeMap Was available 15 minutes after the earthquake. Useful for recovery assessment.

  27. Recent M5.6 earthquake on the Calaveras Fault- this was only a moderate size quake - it wasn’t the Big One! ~64,000 responses to Did You Feel It? Example from M5.4 Alum Rock earthquake on the Calaveras Fault

  28. http://1868alliance.org/ • Promote earthquake awareness • Promote earthquake preparedness • Remember our earthquake history Join Us!!!

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