1 / 24

The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming trends

The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming trends. Fridolin Krausmann Based on research by H. Haberl, K.H. Erb, C. Lauk, C. Plutzar, J. K. Steinberger, C. Müller, A. Bondeau et.al. Institute for Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria Universität

josiah
Download Presentation

The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming trends

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The world's bioenergy potential in the context of global food and farming trends Fridolin Krausmann Based on research by H. Haberl, K.H. Erb, C. Lauk, C. Plutzar, J. K. Steinberger, C. Müller, A. Bondeauet.al. Institute for Social Ecology, Alpen-Adria Universität Potsdam Institut for Climate Impact Reasearch – PIK Potsdam

  2. Project „Feeding and fuelling the world 2050“ • Goals: • Understanding the interrelations between diet patterns, agriculture, bioenergy and climate change. (Deforestation was not considered!) • Exploring the possibilities to meet global food demand in 2050 under different assumptions on • Dietary patterns • Expansion of cropland • Changes in land use intensity/agricultural yields • Changes in intensity and efficiency of livestock production systems • Climate change • Quantification of bioenergy potentials in 2050 • We acknowledge the funding of this research by: FWF – Austrian Science Fund, Compassion in World Farming, Friends of the Earth, UK Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  3. Eleven World Regions Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  4. Socio-ecological Characteristica of Worldregions Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  5. Biomass use (per capita) 2000 Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  6. Solid empirical database for 2000: Three consistent datasets • Land use: Consistency between pixels (5 min, 10x10 km) and statistical data at country level (cropland and woodlands according to FAO, FRA und TBFRA). Erb et al. 2007. J. Land Use Sci.2, 191-224 • Biomass balances at country level: Production and consumption of biomass by type (ca. 160 countries): Feed balances, processing losses, trade, trends 1960-2000.Krausmann et al. 2008. Ecol. Econ.65, 471-487. • HANPP: Global human appropriation of NPP, potential and actual NPP und Biomass harvest (5 min, 10x10 km) based on land use data set, FAO statistics and DGVM-Modellierung (LPJmL).Haberl et al., 2007. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.104, 12942-12947. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  7. Biomass-Balance ModellFrom final demand to land requirements- Crop products, forage and grazed biomass- Balance of supply and demand- Regional deficits balanced by trade- Evaluation of global balance Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  8. Diet patterns in 2000 and four scenarios for 2050 Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  9. FAO Prognosis: Crop production 1960-2050 FAO 2006, World agriculture towards 2030/2050, Rome. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  10. Scenarios of cropland expansion 2050 Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  11. Crop yields 1960 to 2050: Three scenarios FAO Organic Intermediate Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  12. Mix of livestock production systems 2000 und 2050 Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  13. Conversion efficiencies livestock system 1960-2050 Monogastric Ruminants Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  14. Calculation of Bioenergy Potential(Primary biomass!) • Bioenergy from cropland: • In case „free“ cropland is available: Bioenergypotential = potential aboveground NPP. • In case the demand for crop products exceeds supply by less than 5%: „negativ“ bioenergy potential is subtracted from the potential available on grassland. • Bioenergy from grassland: • Best grassland (category 1 out of four) is used more intensively. • Grassland area in category 1 which becomes available by this measure is used for bioenergy production (aboveground NPP of act. vegetation). • Bioenergy from crops residues: • Requirements for feeding livestock and bedding are subtracted from available production. • 50% of the reminder can be used for bioenergy production Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  15. Climate Impacts for Cropland Productivity (calculated with LPJmL) Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  16. Results: Feasibility Analysis Not feasible - Probably feasible Feasible Highlyfeasible Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  17. Bioenergy potential 2050 in relation to diet assumptions (44 feasible scenarios) Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  18. Regional distrubution of bioenergy potential(Trend-scenario: Total of 105 EJ/yr) Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  19. Bioenergy potentials and climate impacts (Trend Scenario) Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  20. Potential from Bioenergy plantations in 2050, Global Energy Assessment(forthcom. 2010, prelim.) WBGU, 2008. Bioenergie und nachhaltige Landnutzung. Berlin. Van Vuuren 2009, Energy Policy Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  21. Global Energy Flows: Overview Total terrestrial NPP 2.190 EJ/yr Terrestrial aboveground NPP 1.240 EJ/yr Human harvest (used and unused) 346 EJ/yr Fossil energy consumption 453 EJ/yr Biomass for technical energy 54 EJ/yr Global technical primary energy supply 551 EJ/yr Bioenergy potential, range var. estimates 33-1.290 EJ/yr Bioenergy potential 2050, this study 58-158 EJ/yr Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  22. Conclusions • Feeding a growing world population is possible with ecologically sound agricultural production – but only at a modest increase of the share of animal products in human diet. • Dietary patterns matter: An increase in the share of animal products in human diets has far reaching implications: • Need to intensify land use (yield increases, feeding efficiency) • Expansion of cropland • Bioenergy potential reduced • Food security and bioenergy are possible without further deforestation. • Bioenergy and globalisation: Largest bioenergy potentials in Subsaharan Africa and Latin America. • Climate matters: Bioenergy potential strongly depends on diet patterns and climate impacts. The later are only poorly understood. Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  23. Report „Eating the planet?“ online:http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/downloads/WP116_WEB.pdf Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

  24. Data download http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm Bioenergy Workshop Eberswalde 08.12.2009

More Related