Wheat Food Trends in the U.S.

1. Wheat Food Trends in the U.S. ND Wheat Commission County Representatives Meeting Grand Forks, ND December 7, 2010 Judi Adams, MS, RD President

2. Wheat Foods Council and Grain Foods Foundation • Our mission is identical: To increase the public’s understanding of the importance of grains in a healthful diet. • Our target audience is basically the same: • GFF – Consumers – women • WFC- Opinion leaders who reach women • Why women? • Gate-keepers • Basic food decision makers • Rely on them to be concerned about the health of their families

3. Source: Dr. AlessioFansano, U of MD

5. Remember Atkins? • Low carb era assisted in dropping wheat flour consumption approximately 13 pounds/person • High of 147 lbs in 1997 – 134 lbs in 2004 • ESL (Extended Shelf Life) was also initiated by the bakers about the same time • Fortunately, the Atkins diet died with Dr. Atkins but we still have a “low-carb hang-over” • Consumers are not following an “Atkins Diet” but they are “watching their carbs”

6. So What’s the Next Fad Diet to hurt grains? • Glycemic Index? • Gluten Free?

7. Glycemic Index: • Hear about it on television ads and in women’s magazines– NutriSystem advertizes their diet for being based on “…the proven concept of the glycemic index.” • What is the glycemic index? It is a value based on the amount of time it takes a carbohydrate to release sugar into the blood stream. A lower value is supposedly better because that means the food is being digested slower. • However, there is too much conflicting evidence showing the value of glycemic index • Which has a lower (i.e. better) glycemic index?

8. Glycemic Index continued: Snickers bar – 57 oatmeal – 87 The 2010 Dietary Guidelines Committee agreed with the 2005 committee that glycemic index should not be used in making food choices, because: The glycemic response of a single food can change by the: • individual eating it • foods eaten at the same meal or the meal before • variety (i.e. of wheat, potatoes, etc) • preparation method – eaten raw or cooked • temperature – hot potato salad vs. cold potato salad • ripeness of the food

10. Gluten-free – the next low carb? • 1 in 100 people (1 in 133 in the U.S. have Celiac disease); only 5—10% diagnosed. • However, the Hartman Group estimates 15--25% of the population are interested in gluten-free products. • 2004 sales of gluten-free products - $580 million • 2012 sales expected to be $2.6 billion • In addition to Celiac disease, people can be: • Gluten sensitive and should avoid gluten (U. of MD estimates 6% of Americans) • Allergic to wheat and should avoid wheat – often out-grow this allergy

11. Gluten-containing grains: wheat, barley and ryeGluten-free Alternatives (all in competition with wheat): • Arrowroot • Amaranth • Buckwheat • Corn • Flax • Indian Ricegrass • Mesquite flour • Millet • Nut flours (almond, hazelnut, pecan) • Quinoa • Oats (can be contaminated) • Potato Starch, Potato Flour

12. Gluten-free Alternatives, continued: • Pulse flours (bean, chickpea, lentil, pea) • Rice (black, brown, glutinous/sweet, white, wild) • Rice Bran • Sorghum • Soy • Sweet Potato Flour • Tapioca (cassava/manioc) • Teff

13. Regulation/Enrichment/Fortification of Gluten-free products: • Most non-whole grain, gluten-free flours, breads, pasta, cereals and baked goods are not enriched and are lower in B vitamins, iron, fiber and folic acid. • Canadian and U.S. regulations allow for the enrichment of gluten-free flours at the same level of gluten-containing flours. • More companies are starting to enrich their products and/or use healthier ingredients. • No FDA “Gluten-free” claim/logo/symbol. Proposal for one includes the accepted level of less than 20 ppm gluten in the product.

14. Cost of Gluten-free Products vs. Non-Gluten Free Counterparts: • Mean unit price per 100 grams: • $1.71 for gluten-free • $ .61 non-gluten-free • On average: Gluten-free products were 242% more expensive than their non-gluten-free counterparts (range 5 – 1000%) • Breads, bagels, muffins - 126--317% higher • Pasta – 194--407% higher • Cereals – 60--263% higher • Baking flours & mixes – 246--1000% higher Source: Shelley Case, RD

15. Organic Foods: • Have been around since the ’60’s and became mainstream in the ‘80’s • Sales of organic foods were $1 billion in 1990; $24.8 billion in 2009 (a 5.5% increase in 2009 compared to total food sales of 1.6%). • 31.5 percent of the population say they buy organics for their health • Fruits and vegetables are the fastest growing sector but meat and dairy are also increasing • In 2009, 54% of the organic foods were sold in mainstream supermarkets or mass merchandisers (Sam’s Club, Costco)

16. Local Gardening: • Local Gardening • No-brainer for North Dakota residents • Challenge for big-city dwellers -- Except for the White House • CIA (Culinary Institute of America) is planning to plant their own gardens • Impossible to feed the U.S. population w/local foods • Consider grains – even local wheat varieties provide huge challenges (i.e. baking bread in Ohio) • Fruits and vegetables in northern climates

17. Vegetarian or Vegan Growth • A 2008 “Vegetarian Times’ survey showed that 3.2 percent of U.S. adults, or 7.3 million people, follow a vegetarian-based diet. • Approximately 0.5 percent, or 1 million, of those are vegans, who consume no animal products at all. • In addition, 10 percent of U.S., adults, or 22.8 million people, say they largely follow a vegetarian-inclined diet. • “Vegetarian Times” says you will increase your lifespan by 13 years if you switch to a vegetarian diet. • Nov. 2010 survey found 6.8% say they are interested in following a vegetarian diet*. • *Supermarket News in conjunction with Everyday with Rachel Ray magazine and SupermarketGuru.

18. Growth of Whole Grain Consumption • Currently estimates are 11% of the grains consumed in the U.S. are whole grains. Last USDA figure is .9 servings/person • Recommendation is 50% of your grains be whole • 2010 IFIC survey found 73% of Americans are trying to increase their whole grain consumption • 83% of Americans are aware of the link between whole grains and heart disease • Products are better; cost is decreasing • From 2000 to 2009, Mintel reports 18 times as many whole grain product introductions. • Whole grains contain more fiber and numerous minerals and vitamins • Enriched grains contain 2Xs as much folic acid

19. Enriched Grains and Folic Acid: • In the U.S. enriched grains have decreased neural tube birth defects by about 1/3 since they were mandated in 1998. • Enriched grains are the largest source of folic acid in the American diet. • In Canada – 53% reduction in spina bifida; 31% decrease in anencephaly. • Important that all white flour be enriched/fortified.

20. Increased Interest in “Ancient Grains” • Amaranth • Quinoa (carried by Sam’s Club) • Chia • Millet • Spelt • Kamut • Emmer • Einkorn • Teff Becoming more popular in food service and retail, but not yet mainstream

21. 2010 (2011) Dietary Guidelines for Americans: • Have been released every 5 years since 1980, making the 2010 Dietary Guidelines for Americans the 7th edition. • The graphic to illustrate the Guidelines (currently MyPyramid) is a publication by USDA. • Why do we care? • Does anyone follow the Guidelines? • They set policy for school meals, SNAP program, WIC and other USDA and HHS food programs What might affect our industry? • Recommendation to cut sodium to 1500 mg/day (grains are largest source of sodium in the U.S. diet) • Recommendation to consume less “refined” grains • Consensus that high fructose corn syrup is used by body the same as sucrose • Consensus that added sugars are no more obesigenic than any other source of calories; FDA says they can not label “added sugars” because there is no test to detect them.

22. “I believe we are on an irreversible trend toward more freedom and democracy, but that could change.” Dan Quayle, 44th Vice President, 1989 - 1993 So could everything I have told you tonight Questions?