VALUATION OF A FIRM

1. VALUATION OF A FIRM

2. Case Problem Ideko is a privately held designer and manufacturer of specialty sports eyewear based in Chicago. In mid 2005 its owner and founder June Wong has decided to sell the business after having relinquished management control four years earlier. PKK investments is investigating the purchase of the company at the end of the current fiscal year. PKK plans to implement operational and financial improvements at Ideko over the next five years, after which it intends to sell the business.

3. Ideko Ideko has assets of $87 million and annual sales of $75 million. The firm has earnings of almost $7 million for a profit margin of 9.3%. The owner is looking for $150 million as a sales price, almost double the book value of equity. The question: Is such a valuation reasonable?

4. Ideko � 2005 Income Statement and Balance Sheet.

5. Valuation Multiples for Proposed Transaction

6. What equity valuations are implied?

7. The Business Plan Operational Improvements By cutting administrative costs and redirecting resources to new product development, sales, and marketing, you believe Ideko can increase its market share from 10% to 15% over the next 5 years. The total market is expected to grow by 5% per year. Expected Economic Conditions Ideko�s average selling price is forecast to increase 2% each year (this is expected inflation). Raw materials prices are forecast to increase at a 1% rate. Labor costs are forecast to increase at a 4% rate.

8. The Business Plan (cont'd) Operational Improvements The increased sales demand can be met in the short run using the existing production capacity. Once the growth in output exceeds 50%, however, Ideko will need to undertake a major expansion to increase its manufacturing capacity.

9. Capital Expenditures and Needed Expansion

10. Capital Expenditures and Needed Expansion In 2008, a major expansion will be necessary, leading to a large increase in capital expenditures in 2008 and 2009. The estimated expenditures are:

11. Sales and Operating Cost Assumptions

12. Building the Financial Model

13. Building the Financial Model Forecasting Earnings To build the pro forma income statement, begin with Ideko�s sales. Each year, sales can be calculated as: The raw materials cost can be calculated from sales as (direct labor follows similarly):

14. Building the Financial Model Forecasting Earnings Sales, marketing, and administrative costs can be computed directly as a percentage of sales. The corporate income tax is computed as:

15. Pro-Forma Income Statement

16. Working Capital Management Ideko�s Accounts Receivable Days is: While the industry average is 60 days You believe that Ideko can tighten its credit policy to achieve the industry average without sacrificing sales.

17. Working Capital Management� Ideko�s inventory figure on its balance sheet includes $2 million of raw materials. Given raw material expenditures of $16 million for the year, Ideko currently holds 45.6 days worth of raw material inventory. (2 /16) � 365 = 45.6 You believe that, with tighter control of the production process, 30 days worth of inventory will be adequate.

18. Working Capital Management�

19. Working Capital Requirements The working capital forecast should include the plans to tighten Ideko�s credit policy, speed up customer payments, and reduce Ideko�s inventory of raw materials. Accounts Receivable in 2006 is calculated as:

20. Working Capital Forecast

21. Forecast of Free Cash Flow

22. Capital Structure Changes: Levering Up You believe Ideko is significantly underleveraged so you plan to increase the firm�s debt. You believe that a debt-to-value (D/(E+D)) ratio of 40% is appropriate. With this capital structure, you believe that the debt will be risky and will have a beta of 0.25.

23. Estimating the Cost of Capital CAPM-Based Estimation Since Ideko is not publicly traded, comparable firms must be used to estimate the firm�s beta. The beta for comparable firms is calculated from the regression:

24. Beta Estimates

25. Unlevering Beta Given an estimate of each firm�s equity beta, the �unlevered� beta must be calculated, based on the firm�s capital structure.

26. Ideko�s Unlevered Beta The data from the comparable firms provides guidance for estimating Ideko�s unlevered cost of capital. Ideko�s products are not as high end as Oakley�s eyewear, so Ideko�s sales are unlikely to vary as much with the business cycle as Oakley�s sales do. Ideko does not have a prescription eyewear division, as does Luxottica. Ideko�s products are fashion items rather than exercise items (Nike).

27. Ideko�s Levered Beta Given the above analysis, Ideko�s cost of capital is likely to be closer to (but less than) Oakley�s than it is to Nike�s or Luxottica�s. You decide to put 50% weight on the beta of Oakley, and 25% on Luxottica and Nike. Based on this you decide on 1.28 as your estimate for Ideko�s unlevered beta. Now relever this beta to reflect the 40% debt to value ratio that will be applied after the acquisition. Remember that you expect a debt beta of 0.25.

28. Ideko�s WACC Assume that the current risk-free interest rate is 4% and that you believe a market risk premium of 5% is appropriate. Ideko�s cost of equity is: Ideko�s cost of debt is:

29. Ideko�s WACC Ideko�s tax rate is 35%. Ideko�s WACC is:

30. Continuation Value We have forecast the cash flows out to year 2010 (five years) However, we need to estimate the value of all of the cash flows to be received after 2010. We could continue to forecast pro-forma statements, but this would be difficult. Instead, we forecast cash flows explicitly up to the point we believe the business will reach a steady state of growth and then summarize the remaining cash flows in what is called the continuation (or terminal) value.

31. Continuation Value The Multiples Approach to Continuation Value Practitioners often estimate a firm�s continuation value (also called the terminal value) at the end of the forecast horizon using a valuation multiple, with the EBITDA multiple being the multiple most often used in practice.

32. Continuation Value (cont'd) The Multiples Approach to Continuation Value One difficulty with relying on comparables when forecasting a continuation value is that future multiples of the firm are being compared with current multiples of its competitors. This is especially problematic if the industry is presently in a phase of either rapid growth or decline.

33. The Discounted Cash Flow Approach to Continuation Value The enterprise value in year T, using the WACC valuation method, is calculated as: Free cash flow in year T + 1 is computed as:

34. The Discounted Cash Flow Approach to Continuation Value (cont'd) If the firm�s sales are expected to grow at a nominal rate g and the firm�s operating expenses remain a fixed percentage of sales, then its unlevered net income will also grow at rate g. Similarly, the firm�s receivables, payables, and other elements of net working capital will grow at rate g.

35. The Discounted Cash Flow Approach to Continuation Value (cont'd) If capital expenditures are defined as: Then free cash flows, given g, can be estimated as: Or, sometimes it is simply assumed that free cash flow grows at rate g:

36. Ideko�s continuation value (DCF approach) In 2010 unlevered net income is $15,849, the level of working capital is $40,425 and the level of fixed assets is $69,392. Assume that you believe the business can grow at 5% per year indefinitely after 2010. The average growth rate in nominal GDP is a good starting point for such a growth rate. The free cash flow in 2011 is: FCF2011=15,849*(1.05)-40,425*(0.05)-9,392*(0.05)= $11,151

37. Ideko�s continuation value (DCF approach) FCF at 2011 is $11,151, the WACC is 9.67% The continuation (terminal) value (in $000�s) is: Note this implies an EBITDA multiple of 7.4x

38. Valuation of Ideko using WACC method

39. Capital Structure Changes: Levering Up (cont'd) In addition to the $150 million purchase price for Ideko�s equity, $4.5 million will be used to repay Ideko�s existing debt. PKK�s sources of funds include the new loan of $69.7 million as well as Ideko�s own excess cash (which PKK will have access to). Thus PKK�s required equity contribution to the transaction is $78.3 million.