Early Childhood Programs & Long-term Outcomes: Research & Policy Perspectives

1. Early Experience And Longer-term outcomes: Research and policy in the Early Years Edward Melhuish University of Oxford & Birkbeck, University of London edward.melhuish@education.ox.ac.uk

2. Social & economic context By 2050 the EU working population will decrease by 50 million while the elderly will grow by 50%. Similar situations in most industrialised countries. Economic sustainability will require maximizing the capacity of the workforce. The skills for good outcomes are rising and changing, And there is still great inequality of opportunity. Both cognitive and non-cognitive skills are critical.. How can these be improved for the population?

3. Why the early years? “If the race is already halfway run even before children begin school, then we clearly need to examine what happens in the earliest years.”(Esping-Andersen, 2005) “Like it or not, the most important mental and behavioural patterns, once established, are difficult to change once children enter school.”(Heckman & Wax, 2004).

4. Rates of return to human capital investment (Heckman 2000) Return on investment in human capital Pre-school programs Schooling Job training Preschool School Post-school 0 Age

5. Government Spending  Brain Development – Opportunity and Investment From van der Gaag 2004 – presentation on World Bank - The Benefits of Early Child development programs  Brain Malleability  Conception  Birth 1 3 10 60 80 Age

6. Culture and social context (Macro-level) (e.g., labour markets & ideology)  Provision of early childhood services, e.g. ECEC  Family support, childcare, ECEC centre, etc.  Children’s daily experiences (home and out-of-home)  (individual level) Children’s development Factors impacting on children’s development

7. Public spending on childcare and pre-primary education, 2005 % GDP Childcare spending as a % of GDP Pre-primary spending as a % of GDP 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Norway Malta Japan Greece Iceland France Belgium Romania Hungary Italy Mexico UK Netherlands Spain Portugal Luxemburg Germany US Korea Denmark Sweden Finland Bulgaria New Zealand Latvia Lithuania Australia Estonia Cyprus 1,2 Poland Ireland Canada Switzerland Czech Republic Slovenia Slovak Republic Austria

8. Early risk factors and poor outcomes • Poor literacy and numeracy • School failure • Unemployment • Antisocial behaviour and criminality • Substance abuse • Mental health problems • Physical health problems

9. Interventions with Disadvantaged Groups

10. Need to intervene early To divert trajectories related to disadvantage there is a need for: • Earlier and better identification of at risk families • Earlier effective intervention and prevention • UK Government highlights early intervention, calling attention to neurological evidence; and economic implications

11. Early Childhood EducationPerry Preschool Study(Schweinhart, Barnes & Weikart, 1993) 123 African-American children in extreme poverty Randomly assigned age 3 to program or no-program Daily High/Scope classes with planned learning activities and weekly home visits to families

14. Return on investment $88,433 $12,356 1992 dollars, 3% annual discount rate

15. General Population Studies

16. School starts (3+ yrs) 16yrs 6yrs 7yrs 25 nursery classes 590 children Key Stage 1 600 Schools approx. 3,000 chd Key Stage 2 800 Schools approx. 2,500 chd 34 playgroups 610 children 31 private day nurseries 520 children 20 nursery schools 520 children 24 local authority day care nurseries 430 children 7 integrated centres 190 children home 310 children EPPE STUDY in UK

17. Quality and Duration matter(months of developmental advantage on literacy)

18. Effects of child, home, and pre-school compared

19. Home Learning Environment Parents asked about activities in the home. A home learning environment (HLE) index was constructed. Seven activities linked to development. · · P ainting and P laying/ teaching drawing with numbers /shapes · · · Library P laying/ teaching Playing with visits the alphabet or letters or letters numbers · Playing/teaching of songs/ nursery rhymes (Melhuish et.al. (2001).

20. Home Learning Environment Parents asked about activities in the home. A home learning environment (HLE) index constructed (Melhuish et al., 2001). Seven activities linked to development. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 not occurvery frequent Reading to child Library visits Painting & drawing Playing with letters Playing with numbers/shapes Songs/ poems /nursery rhymes

21. Social class and pre-school on literacy (age 7)

22. Effective Pre-schools Five areas were particularly important: • Quality of the adult-child verbal interaction. • Knowledge and understanding of the curriculum. • Knowledge of how young children learn. • Adults skill in supporting children in resolving conflicts. • Helping parents to support children’s learning at home.

23. Measuring the effectiveness of primary schools • Data every child in England in state school • 600,000 children in each year, N = 15,771 primary schools We used data to calculate the effectiveness of each school

24. EFFECTIVENESS • Schools where children make greater progress than predicted on the basis of initial attainment and pupil and area characteristics can be viewed as more effective. • Schools where children make less progress than predicted can be viewed as • less effective. • We have a continuous scale of school effectiveness

25. Modelling later outcomes Child Factors Family Factors READING Home-Learning- Environment MATHEMATICS Pre-school Primary School

26. Effects upon Age 14; literacy and numeracy 0.8 0.7 Effect size in standard deviation units Literacy 0.6 Numeracy 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Father’s Education Family income Mother’s Education Socio-economic status High-quality pre-school Primary school Home learning environment

27. Combined Impact of Pre- and Primary School - Maths 0.8 School Effectiveness 0.7 Low 0.63 Medium 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.6 0.56 High 0.5 0.46 0.41 0.4 0.35 0.3 Effect Size 0.2 0.09 0.1 0.0 low medium high Pre-School Effectiveness Reference Group: No Pre-School and low Primary School Effectiveness

28. Pre-school Quality and Self-regulation and Pro-social behaviour (age 11 and 14 0.30 Pre-school quality 0.25 0.25 Low 0.23 Medium High 0.20 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.15 Effect size 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.00 Self-regulation Pro-social behaviour

29. Trajectories for Numeracy 2.00 6 6 6 6 6 1.00 Residual Score 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 0.00 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 -1.00 1 1 1 1 1 -2.00 -3.00 End Year 5 End Year 1 Key Stage1 Key Stage2 Reception 3 Years Time 8.2% 2 2 2 19.6% 3 3 3 18.8% 4 4 4 17.3% 23.2% 6 6 6 12.9 % 1 1 1 5 5 5 Group %

30. EFFECTIVE PRE-SCHOOL PROVISION IN NORTHERN IRELAND (EPPNI) Study in Northern Ireland 850 children followed from 3 to 11 years of age. Similar results to EPPE in England. At age 11, allowing for all background factors, The effects of quality of pre-school persist until age 11 years High quality pre-school – improved English and maths, And improved progress in maths during primary school. Children who attended high quality pre-schools were 2.4 times more likely in English, and 3.4times more likely in mathematics, to attain the highest grade at age 11 than children without pre-school.

31. What matters 3 elements for good educational and social success Good Home Learning Environment (before school) Good preschool for longer duration Good primary schools Those children with all 3 will out-perform those with 2 who will out-perform those with 1 who will out-perform those with 0 All other things being equal

32. Conclusions • From age 2 all children benefit from preschool. • The quality of preschool matters. • Part-time has equal benefit to full-time. • Preschool effects persist until teenage years • High quality preschool can protect a child from effects of a low effective school.

33. Policy Impact of EPPE • Free part-time ECEC place from 3 years • Free part-time ECEC place from 2 years (40% most deprived) • Maternity leave increased to 1 year • New Early Years curriculum • New training programmes for EY staff • Acceptance that EY spending is part of government responsibilities • Children’s Centres

34. USA- Age 5 Reading by pre-school quality: 12,800 children - Comparison with no pre-school (Magnusson et al 2003)

35. In Norway, free preschool available to children aged 3 years during the 1960’s and 1970’s – huge increase in preschool attendance. • Analysis showed children attending preschool: had higher educational levels and better job outcomes later in life. higher income in later life

36. In France, preschool expanded in 1970’s • – huge increase in preschool attendance. • • Analysis showed preschool: • leads to higher income in later life • reduces socio-economic inequalities - children from less advantaged backgrounds benefit more. • Switzerland has also expanded preschool. • Improved intergenerational education mobility • especially beneficial for disadvantaged children

37. Denmark Bauchmüller, Gørtz and Rasmussen (2011) http://www.cser.dk/fileadmin/www.cser.dk/wp_008_rbmgawr.pdf Danish register data on whole population 5 quality indicators of preschool: 1) the staff-to-child ratio 2) the share of male staff in the preschool, 3) % of pedagogically trained staff 4) % of non-native staff, 5) the stability of the staff (staff turnover). Controlling for background factors, better preschool quality linked to better test results in 9th grade. “the fact that we find long-lasting effects of pre-school even after 10 years of schooling is quite remarkable”

38. Benefits of preschool have also been evident in Asia and South America. • In Bangladesh, children attending preschool achieved higher attainment levels at primary school. • Uruguay has followed suit - studies identified better attainment in secondary school for children who attended preschool. • Argentina found increases in primary school attainment from children who spent at least 1 year in preschool.

39. Goodman & Sianesi (2005). Early education and children’s outcomes: How long do the impacts last? Fiscal Studies, 26, 513-548. Pre-school in random sample of children born in 1958 in UK Effects on cognition and socialisation are long-lasting. Controlling for child, family and neighbourhood, there were long-lasting effects from pre-school education. pre-school leads to better cognitive scores at 7 and 16 years In adulthood, pre-school was found to increase the probability of good educational qualifications and employment at age 33, and better earnings at age 33.

40. Latin America Association between Preschool, Literacy and Under 5 Mortality % in preschool literacy 6th grade Under 5 mortality 100 90 % in preschool 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Paraguay Colombia Peru Argentina Uruguay Chile Costa Rica Cuba Dominican R

41. Gains from ECEC Education and Social Adjustment • Educational Achievement improved • Special education and grade repetition reduced • Behaviour problems, delinquency and crime reduced • Employment, earnings, and welfare dependency improved • Smoking, drug use, depression reduced Decreased Costs to Government • Schooling costs • Social services costs • Crime costs • Health care costs

42. PISA results for 2009 15-year-olds who had attended pre-school were on average a year ahead of those who had not. Also, PISA results suggest that pre-school participation is strongly associated with reading at age 15 in countries that have sought to improve the quality of pre-school education provide more inclusive access to pre-school education.

43. OECD report on PISA results “The bottom line: Widening access to pre-primary education can improve both overall performance and equity by reducing socio-economic disparities among students, if extending coverage does not compromise quality.” OECD (2011). Pisa in Focus 2011/1: Does participation in pre-primary education translate into better learning outcomes at school?. Paris: OECD. Available at www.pisa.oecd.org.dataoecd/37/0/47034256.pdf

44. Head US Federal Reserve- Ben Bernanke, 2011 “ Research increasingly has shown the benefits of early childhood education and efforts to promote the lifelong acquisition of skills for both individuals and the economy as a whole. The payoffs of early childhood programs can be especially high. ”

45. LESSONS 1.Early years are very important 2.Preschool is part of infrastructure for a successful society 3.High quality preschool boosts development 4.Parenting is also very important 5.Preschool lifts population curve.

46. Cost-benefit of Early interventions • Benefits deriving from improvements in: • Not in Employment Education or Training -NEET • Obesity • Crime • Teenage births • Substance misuse – Drug use • Mental health problems • Domestic violence • Child abuse and neglect • See www.actionforchildren.org.uk/uploads/media/36/7857.pdf

47. Targeted interventions

48. Targeted Interventions:Savings over 10 years £269 billion

49. Universal interventions

50. Universal Interventions:Savings over 20 years £612 billion