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State of the Inland Empire: A Thriving Adventure

Explore the economic and population trends, job growth, educational challenges, healthcare demands, logistics, construction, and real estate in the Inland Empire. Discover the potential impact of tariffs, recession predictions, and the growing marijuana industry. Uncover the housing market dynamics, tax revenues, and the future of key sectors like finance, real estate, and education.

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State of the Inland Empire: A Thriving Adventure

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  1. State of the Inland Empire . . . An “Adventure” John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP

  2. Inland Empire Population Chino 86,757 Chino Hills 83,159 Greater Than 25 of 50 States

  3. Forecasting

  4. Population Forecast, 2018-2045 2045: 6,119,497 1,111,783

  5. Educational Challenge Chino 49.6% Chino Hills 24.3% Chino 26.7% Chino Hills 55.4%

  6. Inland Empire’s Powerful Job Growth!

  7. Inland Empire A CA Job Engine!

  8. Poverty Falling With Job Creation Chino 17.2% Chino Hills 7.5% Chino 13.6% Chino Hills 9.0% 23.5% 16.4%

  9. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records

  10. 17.9% Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time 10.1% 6.9% 3.6%

  11. Inflation: NOT MUCH! 3.3% 2.0%

  12. Interest Rates: A Short Term Rate Decrease? 4.12% 2.50%

  13. Yield Curve: Potential Recession Predictor Recession: 2020 Likelihood An Issue 2 Year to 10 Year 0.22%

  14. TARIFF MAN?

  15. California Job Gains/Losses

  16. CA Hollowing Out Middle Class Jobs

  17. Gold Mine Theory Secondary Tier Primary Tier

  18. Median Health Care Pay: 2018 $62,363

  19. ACA & Health Care Demand Chino 6.9% Chino Hills 1.6% -60% Drop in Uninsured

  20. 2019 Forecast: 4,800 Rationale: Health Providers Paid 65% of Medicaid Costs Shortage of Trained Workers ACA Attacks

  21. Logistics

  22. Median Logistics Pay: 2018 $47,946

  23. E-Commerce 14.5%

  24. Port Container Import VolumeRecord Levels

  25. Industrial Construction Locations

  26. 2019 Forecast: 9,000 Rationale: Running Out of Land in the Valley Areas Tariffs Shortage of Trained Middle Managers U.S. Growth Slowdown

  27. Disappearing Available Space For Facilities x 23,000,000 sf under construction Dec-2018

  28. ONT Airport Cargo Another Record Volume 12.4% 0.9%

  29. ONT Airport Passengers 12.4% 1989 Level 4.6% 1988-2018 Population: up 2.4 million or 108.2% to 4.6 million Job Level: up 864,502 or 133.5% to 1,512,194 Companies: up 75,133 or 187.3% to 75,133

  30. 2018 Median Manufacturing Pay $54,800

  31. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

  32. CA Electrical Cost +88.0% +127.8%

  33. Marijuana?

  34. 2019 Forecast: 1,000 Rationale: Regulation & CA Electrical Costs Tariffs Shortage of Replacement Skilled Workers U.S. Growth Slowdown

  35. Median Construction Pay: 2018 $53,322

  36. Home Prices Chino $541,000 Chino Hills $1,054,000 Chino $497,000 Chino Hills $632,000 +4.2% -9.4%

  37. Price Competition Highest Price Gaps In History

  38. Housing Unaffordability

  39. Home Sales & Construction: Lack of Growth

  40. 2019 Forecast: 6,000 Rationale: Difficulty Permitting Lots CA Environmental Quality Act Very High Prices, Low Volume, Lack of Supply Shortage of Skilled Craft Workers

  41. Median Private High-End Pay: 2018 $76,202

  42. Median Government Pay: 2018 $63,499

  43. Home Volume: No Growth

  44. Assessed Valuation Chino $13.4 billion; Up 9.7% Chino Hills $12.3 billion; Up 6.3% 2008 peak to 2018 AV in RivCo up 16.9% AV in SBCo up 21.9% Inflation Up 16.0%

  45. Taxable Sales Chino $2.5 billion; 9.6% Chino Hills $0.7 billion: 10.4% 2006-2017 RivCo Up 21.2% SBCo Up 21.9% Inflation Up 21.7%

  46. 2019 Forecast: 3,500 Rationale: Education Gap To Coastal Counties Government Tax Revenue Difficulty (internet)

  47. Median Moderate Paying & Real Estate, Finance, Education Jobs: 2018 $57,109

  48. 2019 Forecast: 3,900 Rationale: Banks Hiring Less Real Estate Sales Not Growing School Budget Growth May Slow

  49. Population Serving Sectors E-commerce death High End Consumers Still Doing Well 3rd Strongest Inland Sector

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