Intellectual Atrophy Theory: Unveiling the Scientific Stagnation in Global Warming Debate

1. Geological Society of AmericaJoint Annual Meeting/October 7, 2008/Houston INTELLECTUAL ATROPHY THEORY APPLIED TO THE GLOBAL WARMING PSEUDOCONTROVERSY: A CASE STUDY OF SCIENTIFIC STAGNATION presented by George T. Stone Milwaukee Area Technical College GStone/MATC

2. “The greatest tradition is change.”--Frank Lloyd Wright GStone/MATC

3. “The very essence of science is change.” GStone/MATC

4. Science “Science is best defined as a careful, disciplined, logical search for knowledge about any and all aspects of the universe, obtained by examination of the best available evidence and always subject to correction and improvement upon discovery of better evidence.” -- James Randi Founder of the James Randi Educational Foundation GStone/MATC

5. Responsible skeptic v. ostensible skeptic As predators keep prey alert and adaptable, so skeptics keep scientists honest. Skeptics play an essential role in the process of science. Responsible skeptics, that is. A responsible skeptic plays by the rules of science, ever striving for objectivity and rigor. Alas, the ostensible skeptic interprets these rules loosely and may deem a foul ball fair, straying into the field of dreams and pseudoscience. GStone/MATC

6. Atrophy(Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary) Etymology Late Latin atrophia from Greek atrophos: ill fed from a- + trephein: to nourish GStone/MATC

7. Intellectual atrophy(W. T. Wu/Nanjing University letters, 1936) Intellectual atrophy describes an immutable and closed mindset which denies itself the nourishment of new knowledge in order to preserve a revered or cherished paradigm. GStone/MATC

8. Conceptions of an orderly world “Ideas without precedent are generally looked upon with disfavor and men are shocked if their conceptions of an orderly world are challenged.” -- J. Harlen Bretz GStone/MATC

9. Scientific stagnation Scientific stagnation develops when the nourishing oxygen of discovery in an open intellectual system is excluded, resulting in conceptual stasis. GStone/MATC

10. Confirmation bias(from Wikipedia/the free encyclopedia) Confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one'spreconceptions and avoids information and interpretations which contradict prior beliefs. Confirmation bias is mother’s milk to ostensible skeptics and is symptomatic of scientific stagnation. GStone/MATC

11. History of science The history of science is replete with examples of scientific stagnation when new evidence and new ideas threatened to perturb and oxygenate the comfortable quietude of long-held concepts. GStone/MATC

12. Perturbers of scientific stagnation James Hansen F. Sherwood Rowland and Mario Molina Harry Hess Guy Callendar J. Harlan Bretz Alfred Wegener Albert Einstein Svante Arrhenius Charles Darwin Louis Agassiz James Hutton Galileo Galilei GStone/MATC

13. History of global-warming science 1827: Joseph Fourier explains “greenhouse effect” 1862-3: John Tyndall publishes experimental data documenting infrared absorption by H2O and CO2 1895: Svante Arrhenius calculates that doubling C02 in the atmosphere would raise Earth’s surface temperature 5 to 6oC 1938:Guy Callendar concluded that CO2 from the combustion of fossil fuels is changing Earth’s climate 1988: James Hansen testifies before Congress; presents GISS projections of global warming GStone/MATC

14. The greenhouse effect and global warming Now, the discoverers and documenters of the greenhouse effect and global warming clearly perturbed the resource-friendly paradigm of planetary immunity to human activity. And ostensible skeptics and true believers charged onto the playing field. GStone/MATC

15. Example of non-science When the state of a system is a function of multiple independent variables, it is naïve at best and dishonest at worst to attribute cause and effect to only two variables while ignoring the relevant impact of a third (or more). For example: concluding that the thermal properties of CO2 were inoperative simply because the dimming impact of aerosols temporarily masked the greenhouse effect. GStone/MATC

16. Another example of non-science If a well-defined, longer-term trend (say, multi-decadal) exhibits short-term fluctuations (say multi-annual), it would be unjustified – indeed, disingenuous – to conclude on the basis of a fluctuation that the long-term trend did not continue or was invalid. These examples are not hypothetical; they represent two of many ploys that have been used in the guise of science by ostensible skeptics to create the perception of controversy. Such fallacies do not constitute science and contrive only pseudocontroversy. GStone/MATC

17. Science, credibility, and public policy The effectiveness of science in informing public policy derives from its credibility -- and also, unfortunately, from its political convenience. We can control credibility; it derives from integrity. And integrity is the duty of science, as it is for all scholarship. As scientists, it is our duty to demand integrity and rigor in our research and in our education of students and the public at large. Pseudoscience and rigorless disinformation should not be granted legitimacy-by-association in a forum of scientific research or on the stage of scholarship. GStone/MATC

18. Understanding global warming(James E. Hansen, Director/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies) “Understanding the nature and causes of climate change is essential to crafting solutions to our current crisis.” --Tipping Point: Perspective of a Climatologist (2008–2009 State of the Wild) 1/1/2020 GStone/MATC GStone/MATC

19. The world's recent carbon dioxide emissions are growing more rapidly than even the worst-case climate scenario used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) C02 emissions from fossil fuels increasing at 3 times the rate of the 1990’s CDIAC & EIA data compared to IPCC CO2 rises exceed worst-case scenarios(Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences/May 22, 2007) GStone/MATC

20. CO2 emissions accelerate in 2007(Global Carbon Project/September 25, 2008) atmospheric CO2 increase (ppm/yr) 1970-1979 1.31980-1989 1.61990-1999 1.5 2000-2007 2.0 2007 2.2 GStone/MATC

21. CO2 emissions accelerate in 2007(Global Carbon Project/September 25, 2008) • the growth rate of emissions continued to accelerate, through 2007, bringing atmospheric CO2 to 383 ppm • anthropogenic CO2 emissions have been growing four times faster since 2000 • "This new update of the carbon budget shows the acceleration of both CO2 emissions and atmospheric accumulation are unprecedented and most astonishing during a decade of intense international developments to address climate change.” -- Pep Canadell, Executive Director Global Carbon Project GStone/MATC

22. 2007 land temperature warmest on record!(National Climatic Data Center/January 15, 2008) For 2007: the global land surface temperature ranked warmest on record the Northern hemisphere land and land + ocean surface temperature rankedsecond warmest on record the combined global land + ocean surface temperature rankedfifthwarmest on record 1/1/2020 GStone/MATC GStone/MATC

23. The greatest challenge of human history We now face what may well be the most daunting challenge in human history: anthropogenic greenhouse warming. The magnitude and immediacy of this challenge is staggering and not yet fully grasped by many. GStone/MATC

24. “We have a very brief window of opportunity”(James E. Hansen, Director/NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies) “We have a very brief window of opportunity to deal with climate change . . . no longer than a decade at the most.“ If the world continues with "business as usual," temperatures will rise by 2 to 3o Celsius (3.6 to 7.2o F) and"we will be producing a different planet" GStone/MATC

25. Einstein’s wisdom(Sandra Postel/October 5, 2008) “You can’t solve a problem with the same mindset that created the problem.” -- Albert Einstein GStone/MATC

26. A call to duty! As geoscientists -- with expertise in climate change and energy resources -- it is our professional duty to demonstrate leadership in preparing policy makers and the public to deal with the greatest challenge of human history! GStone/MATC

27. We can do it! Si se puede! GStone/MATC

28. (AP photo courtesy of Dan Crosbie/Canadian Ice Service) Thanks for your attention!! GStone/MATC