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COPE LEVELS IN MODERN PORTS: A Case Study for the Port of Ngqura 10 July 2019

COPE LEVELS IN MODERN PORTS: A Case Study for the Port of Ngqura 10 July 2019 CSIR International Convention Center, Pretoria, South Africa. T. Ahmed and K. Mutombo. INTRODUCTION. Introduction. Ports are affected by uncertainties in their futures Climate change impacts,

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COPE LEVELS IN MODERN PORTS: A Case Study for the Port of Ngqura 10 July 2019

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  1. COPE LEVELS IN MODERN PORTS: A Case Study for the Port of Ngqura 10 July 2019 CSIR International Convention Center, Pretoria, South Africa T. Ahmed and K. Mutombo

  2. INTRODUCTION

  3. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Introduction • Ports are affected by uncertainties in their futures • Climate change impacts, • New generation vessels. • The inability to adapt will lead to huge consequences for a port. • Traditional practices in port planning have remained static and a new approach is needed.

  4. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 The Climate Change Factor • Climate risks presents major challenges for port infrastructure adaptation. • Currently no provision for a port wide approach for assessing and incorporating this data into port adaptation. • Climate change needs to be factored into decision making at early stages of port development.

  5. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Problem Statement & Methodology • Understanding how the following contributes to the determination of suitable cope levels: • Dynamic metocean conditions and the impact to these conditions due to climate change, • New generation vessel impacts. • Desktop study assuming 100 year design life (year 2020 to 2120) at 1,000 year storm return period (worst case approach). • Worst case happens…..

  6. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Worst Case Events Port Elizabeth September 2008

  7. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Worst Case Events Durban March 2007 & 2017

  8. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Location

  9. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Location

  10. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Location

  11. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Area

  12. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Area

  13. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Introduction - Port of Ngqura • A deep-water port (-18.0m and -16.0m) and 8th addition to South Africa’s commercial ports. • Promulgated in 1998 and constructed from 2006 to 2009 (Phase 1) and then 2009 to 2012 (Phase 2). • 20km east of the Port of Port Elizabeth. • Currently handling containers and exporting manganese (skips). • Manganese, bulk liquid and LNG terminals planned for the future.

  14. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Introduction - Port Planning • Ligteringen & Velsink, 2012: • Technical, environmental, nautical and economic factors need to be considered in the planning of port infrastructure. • The infrastructure needs to be designed for a dynamic marine environment. • For a port to be economically viable, its infrastructure should be carefully planned considering all dynamic aspects.

  15. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Introduction - Quay wall anatomy

  16. COPE LEVEL DETERMINATION ELEMENTS

  17. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Typical Key Elements for the Determination of Cope Levels • Vessel Parameters • Metocean Parameters • Operational Parameters

  18. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Vessel Parameters Parameters • Vessel size (Gaythwaite, 2004), • Vessel type (Thoresen, 2014). Design Vessel for Ngqura • Ports greatly affected by technological advances in ship design. • Ships are getting bigger. Largest container vessel produced as of mid 2019 is the OOCL Hong Kong at 21,413 TEU. • Max. vessel for Ngqura limited to width of future Coega River Channel. Determined as 18,000 TEU.

  19. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Vessel Parameters Parameters • Vessel size (Gaythwaite, 2004), • Vessel type (Thoresen, 2014). Design Vessel for Ngqura • Ports greatly affected by technological advances in ship design. • Ships are getting bigger. Largest container vessel produced as of mid 2019 is the OOCL Hong Kong at 21,413 TEU. • Max. vessel for Ngqura limited to width of future Coega River Channel. Determined as 18,000 TEU.

  20. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Metocean (wind & wave) Parameters • Astronomical tidal range (GHK, 2004), • Highest observed tidal (Thoresen, 2014) • Wind-raised water level in the harbour (Thoresen, 2014), • Wave action in the harbour (Mutombo & Olcer, 2016), • Wave crest heights (Gaythwaite, 2004), • Surging in the harbour (Gaythwaite, 2004) • Extreme water levels (GHK, 2004) • Sea level rise to be expected (Mutombo, 2014) • Normal and extreme wind conditions (Mutombo, 2014), • Frequency and probability of storm conditions (TRB, 2008), • Fluvial impacts of river floods (ROM 3.1-99, 2007).

  21. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Operational Parameters • Quay face space required to accommodate fenders (TNPA, 1994), • The elevation of the terminal area and land behind the berth apron (Thoresen, 2014), • Spatial allowance to accommodate service tunnels in quay walls (TNPA, 1994), • Impact of flooding from the sea from wave overtopping (PIANC, 2014), • Drainage and stormwater requirements (TNPA, 2015)

  22. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Operational Parameters • Quay face space required to accommodate fenders (TNPA, 1994), • The elevation of the terminal area and land behind the berth apron (Thoresen, 2014), • Spatial allowance to accommodate service tunnels in quay walls (TNPA, 1994), • Impact of flooding from the sea from wave overtopping (PIANC, 2014), • Drainage and stormwater requirements (TNPA, 2015) • Water depths

  23. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Operational Parameters • Quay face space required to accommodate fenders (TNPA, 1994), • The elevation of the terminal area and land behind the berth apron (Thoresen, 2014), • Spatial allowance to accommodate service tunnels in quay walls (TNPA, 1994), • Impact of flooding from the sea from wave overtopping (PIANC, 2014), • Drainage and stormwater requirements (TNPA, 2015) • Water depths

  24. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Operational Parameters • Quay face space required to accommodate fenders (TNPA, 1994), • The elevation of the terminal area and land behind the berth apron (Thoresen, 2014), • Spatial allowance to accommodate service tunnels in quay walls (TNPA, 1994), • Impact of flooding from the sea from wave overtopping (PIANC, 2014), • Drainage and stormwater requirements (TNPA, 2015) • Water depths

  25. CLIMATE CHANGE

  26. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Climate Change Impacts • Need to focus on problem now to avoid costly future investments. • Has multiple impacts on ports with sea level rise seen as the biggest impact. • Climate change impacts as per AECOM (2014):

  27. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 IPCC Assessment Report 5 (2014)

  28. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 South African Climate Change Impact • South African tide gauge records compared to global records show agreement with trends (Mather, 2008). • South African sea level rise similar to global trends. • Climate change impacts wind, surge and wave heights. For the South African context, as recommended by PRDW (2010):

  29. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 South African Climate Change Impact • Has a direct impact on: • Wind, • Short waves, • Long waves, • Surge, • Rainfall

  30. WATER LEVEL DESIGN

  31. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Water depth and level factors Design still water level Dynamic criteria Chart datum Sea bed depth based on design vessel

  32. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Mean Sea Level and Chart Datum Mean Sea Level +X.XXm CD 0.00m MSL Varies from Port to Port and site specific Chart datum 0.00m CD -X.XXm MSL

  33. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Water Level Design

  34. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Water Level Design Cope level elevation must exceed height of wave crest to prevent flooding of terminal area. Typically 0.5 to 2 x Hs (EurOtop, 2016) Design Water Level Design Still Water Level DWL = DSWL + (1 x Hs) used for Port of Ngqura Study

  35. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Water Level Design Factors that “ride” on top of the still water level Offshore generated waves Design Water Level Port generated wind waves Combined Short Waves Vessel generated waves Design Still Water Level Coega River Impact Long Waves Factors that raise the still water level Surge Sea Level Rise Astronomical Tides

  36. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Water Level Design Factors that “ride” on top of the still water level Design Water Level Combined Short Waves Design Still Water Level Coega River Impact Directly impacted by Climate Change Long Waves Factors that raise the still water level Surge Sea Level Rise Astronomical Tides

  37. CALCULATING THE COPE LEVEL

  38. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Calculating the Cope Level 100 year design life at 1,000 year storm return period

  39. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Parameter Used – Sea Level Rise Sea level rise from 2000 up to 2100 as per data from IPCC (2014a)

  40. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Parameter Used – Surge Increase Surge increase (in percent) from year 2000 to 2120 due to climate change

  41. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Parameter Used – Wave Height Wave height increase (in percentages) from year 2000 to 2120 due to climate change

  42. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Study Parameter Used – Extreme Wind Wind speed increase (in percent) from year 2000 to 2120 due to climate change

  43. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Available datasets used Location of available metocean measurements (PRDW, 2016)

  44. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Available datasets used Location of available metocean measurements (PRDW, 2016)

  45. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Ngqura Specific Parameter – Coega River • Coega River mouth terminates with in Port Basin. • Flooding impact needed to be determined as river had damaged infrastructure in the Past (2011 flood) 2011 Flood Event (Introna, 2011; TNPA 2011)

  46. RESULTS

  47. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Calculated Results for year 2120

  48. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Calculated Results

  49. Southern African Transport Conference, 08 to 11 July 2019 Calculated Results

  50. CASE STUDY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION

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