Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Needs Assessment

Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Needs Assessment 2017 Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Needs Assessment 2017 What is the PCNA? Main Findings Key Issues and Risks Recommendations Links & References Research Priorities CSP Level Profiles Police and Crime Plan Read the full document here Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner EXIT

What is the PCNA? The PCNA provides shared overview of the main crime, community safety and criminal justice issues, risks and threats facing Nottinghamshire • It is used to inform:- • Development of the 2018 to 2021 Police and Crime Plan • The PCC’s / OPCC’s organisational planning for 2018 and beyond • The PCC’s grants and commissioning process for 2018/19 • It brings together a wide range of partnership data and stakeholder perspectives • It is updated on an annual basis. Previous publications can be found here Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

What information have we used?      Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

2017 In Perspective: Long-term improvement • Traditional crimes have fallen significantly over the last decade • Police recorded down 40% CSEW reported crime (local) down 45% • More victims are being supported to ‘cope and recover’ • Investment in victim support services, more victims of non-recent crime supported • We are better at recognising the impact of crime and responding to harm • Victim Personal Statements, new legislation, misogyny, Crime ‘Severity’ focus • We have a well-established understanding of complex need • Troubled / Priority Families, Vulnerable People Panels, work in priority locations • Our services are more transparent and accountable • Stronger complaints and inspection regimes, Community Trigger Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

2017 In Perspective: Long-term improvement Priority Areas and Neighbourhoods Arboretum, Berridge and Bulwell in Nottingham Carsic, Abbey Hill, Central and New Cross in Ashfield Oak Tree, Portland, Newgate in Mansfield Worksop South East, Worksop North West and Langold in Bassetlaw Bridge, Ollerton and Devon in Newark and Sherwood Netherfield, Colwick and Eastwood South in South Nottinghamshire • Traditional crimes have fallen significantly over the last decade • Police recorded down 40% CSEW reported crime (local) down 45% • More victims are being supported to ‘cope and recover’ • Investment in victim support services, more victims of non-recent crime supported • We are better at recognising the impact of crime and responding to harm • Victim Personal Statements, new legislation, misogyny, Crime ‘Severity’ focus • We have a well-established understanding of complex need • Troubled / Priority Families, Vulnerable People Panels, work in priority locations • Our services are more transparent and accountable • Stronger complaints and inspection regimes, Community Trigger Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

2017 In Perspective: Impact of Austerity • SIGNIFICANT PUBLIC SECTOR CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS • Improvements in efficiency and prioritisation of workloads, but... • Reductions in: • Prevention & early intervention • Intelligence and analysis • Pro-active policing • Arrests and charges • Positive outcomes • Workforce strength • Workforce morale • Capacity constraints on: • Mental health services • Offender Management • Public Protection • Investigation • Family Service • SARC, IDVA • MARAC Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Determinants of Need: Rising Vulnerability • Mental health-related need remains high and increasing • Mental health-related demand on the police has increased by a further 6% • Drug treatment presentations for problematic drug use are increasing • Increases in Crack and Heroin (city) presentations since April 2017 • ‘Black Mamba’ (SCRA) in prolific use in towns and city centre • Increase in ‘concern for safety’ demand on the police since April 2017 • Alcohol remains a significant driver of agency demand • Commonly associated with complex vulnerability, violent crime, ASB, sexual assault • Long term increases in rough sleeping since 2010 • Notable concentrations in Nottingham City and Mansfield Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Crime and Anti-social Behaviour (1) • Overall crime levels remained relatively stable in 2016/17 • Based on trend in self-reported experience of crime (CSEW - Local) • 12% increase in Police recorded crime skewed by improved recording • Crime recording skew largely impacted on public order (+93%) and violent crime • Digital crimes account for a growing proportion of recorded offences • Cyber-flagged crimes increased from 944 in 2015/16 to 2,600 in 2016/17 • Some genuine increases in serious acquisitive crimes since April 2017 • Rising trend in vehicle crimes and sporadic increases in burglary offences • Continuing upward trend in reported shoplifting since 2013 • 10% increase in 2016/17, remaining higher than similar force average Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Crime and Anti-social Behaviour (1) • Overall crime levels remained relatively stable in 2016/17 • Based on trend in self-reported experience of crime (CSEW - Local) • 12% increase in Police recorded crime skewed by improved recording • Crime recording skew largely impacted on public order (+93%) and violent crime • Digital crimes account for a growing proportion of recorded offences • Cyber-flagged crimes increased from 944 in 2015/16 to 2,600 in 2016/17 • Some genuine increases in serious acquisitive crimes since April 2017 • Rising trend in vehicle crimes and sporadic increases in burglary offences • Continuing upward trend in reported shoplifting since 2013 • 10% increase in 2016/17, remaining higher than similar force average ““If you imagine the cybercrime car going down the motorway at 70 mph, we were tootling along at 20mph in 2012. I think we’ve probably got ourselves up to 50mph, but they’re now going at 120mph”” CC Peter Goodman, National Policing Cybercrime Lead Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Crime and Anti-social Behaviour (1) • Overall crime levels remained relatively stable in 2016/17 • Based on trend in self-reported experience of crime (CSEW - Local) • 12% increase in Police recorded crime skewed by improved recording • Crime recording skew largely impacted on public order (+93%) and violent crime • Digital crimes account for a growing proportion of recorded offences • Cyber-flagged crimes increased from 944 in 2015/16 to 2,600 in 2016/17 • Some genuine increases in serious acquisitive crimes since April 2017 • Rising trend in vehicle crimes and sporadic increases in burglary offences • Continuing upward trend in reported shoplifting since 2013 • 10% increase in 2016/17, remaining higher than similar force average Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Crime and Anti-social Behaviour (2) • Violence and sexual crimes account for disproportionate Crime Harm • 33% of recorded crime, but 68% of crime harm (ONS Crime Severity Index) • Long-term downward trend in violence with injury • Based on local hospital admission / A&E data and CSEW profile • Steady long-term reduction in adult domestic and sexual abuse • Underlying downward trend in sexual abuse since 2012 and DA since 2005 • Genuine increases in some low volume, but high impact violent crime • Rise in violent knife crime reflected in Police and A&E data • Sporadic increases in hate crime reporting linked to ‘trigger events’ • Indications that prevalence and severity of hate crime is in decline (CSEW) Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Crime and Anti-social Behaviour (3) • Anti-social behaviour affects around 33% of adults per year • Experience of ASB (CSEW) remains consistently higher than E&W average (30%) • Despite this, only around 8% feel that ASB is a problem in their area • Perception that ASB is a problem (CSEW) remains lower than E&W average (10%) • Survey findings indicate a generally flat trend in experience of ASBCSEW (local), Citizens Surveys (CDP, NCH). N.B. Police recorded ASB fallen since 2014 • ASB continues to have a disproportionate impact in some localities • Alcohol-related ASB noise nuisance – Lenton Triangle / Derby Road • Aggressive begging – Nottingham City Centre • Motorcycle-related nuisance and reckless driving Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Victims of Crime and ASB • Overall prevalence of victimisation is reducing • Number experiencing crime estimated to have fallen by 22% since 2010 (CSEW) • Increased victim reporting and improved crime recording compliance • More reporting of DA and sexual crimes, burglary without loss & bicycle theft (CSEW) • More victims being identified, assessed, safeguarded and supported • 15% increase in victims recorded by police in 2016/17 – including non-recent cases • Significant pressures on investigation and specialist victim services • Domestic and sexual abuse services, mental health and therapeutic support • Deterioration in overall satisfaction among non-enhanced victims • Changes in service response, increased use of telephone investigation Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Victims of Crime and ASB • Overall prevalence of victimisation is reducing • Number experiencing crime estimated to have fallen by 22% since 2010 (CSEW) • Increased victim reporting and improved crime recording compliance • More reporting of DA and sexual crimes, burglary without loss & bicycle theft (CSEW) • More victims being identified, assessed, safeguarded and supported • 15% increase in victims recorded by police in 2016/17 – including non-recent cases • Significant pressures on investigation and specialist victim services • Domestic and sexual abuse services, mental health and therapeutic support • Deterioration in overall satisfaction among non-enhanced victims • Changes in service response, increased use of telephone investigation “The increasing demand has become challenging to manage within the current commissioned budget and The Topaz Centre has not promoted the service widely as a result of this” SARC Manager Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Victims of Crime and ASB • Overall prevalence of victimisation is reducing • Number experiencing crime estimated to have fallen by 22% since 2010 (CSEW) • Increased victim reporting and improved crime recording compliance • More reporting of DA and sexual crimes, burglary without loss & bicycle theft (CSEW) • More victims being identified, assessed, safeguarded and supported • 15% increase in victims recorded by police in 2016/17 – including non-recent cases • Significant pressures on investigation and specialist victim services • Domestic and sexual abuse services, mental health and therapeutic support • Deterioration in overall satisfaction among non-enhanced victims • Changes in service response, increased use of telephone investigation Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Changing Patterns of Offending • Reduction in arrests, charges and positive outcomes in 2017 • Trend reflected nationally and driven, in part, by changes in police focus and activity • Significant over-representation of Black and Minority Ethnic males • Black British population = 2.5%, but account for 7% offenders, 10% priority offenders • Indication that reductions in first time youth offending may be slowing Levels have plateaued since April 2017 and are above the England and Wales average • Levels of recorded violent knife crime been increasing since 2011 • Reflects both genuine increases (local and nationally) and improved recording • Emerging crime groups and Serious and Organised Criminality • Growing reach & sophistication in the exploitation of vulnerable people Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Public Perception and Engagement • Residents support police focus on ‘protecting vulnerable people’ • 53% P&C Survey respondents rank this among their top 3 priorities for the police • Neighbourhood-based priorities include road safety, burglary & drugs • Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Survey 2017 • % feeling they have confidence in police (72%) has plateaued since 2014This follows marked increases between March 2008 (58%) and June 2016 (76%) • % feeling that the police understand their communities has declined Steady long term reduction since September 2014, from 78% to 64% (CSEW) • Public demand on policing services (999/101) remains above average • Approximately 163 more 999 calls per day than an average force Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Key Issues Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need In addition to issues of high impact and / or increasing prevalence shown below, the 2017 PCNA identifies a range of cross-cutting issues that are likely to impact upon crime and community safety across Nottinghamshire in 2018. Youth support, engagement & early intervention Click to explore • High impact / High harm • Domestic violence & abuse • Sexual violence & abuse • Alcohol/NTE-related violence • Hate crime and incidents • Exploitation – CSE, slavery • Residential burglary • Increasing prevalence • Serious acquisitive crime • Shoplifting • Robbery • Weapon-enabled violence • Concern for safety demand • On-line fraud Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Provision of universal policing services Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Key issues: Overview High Harm / Impact / Risk Low Harm / Impact / Risk Domestic violence and abuse Adult Rape Alcohol-related violence Residential Burglary Hate Crime Knife-related violence Other adult sexual offences Robbery Fraud Vehicle Crime Commercial Burglary Shoplifting Bicycle theft Decreasing Escalating risk / prevalence risk / prevalence Low Harm / Impact / Risk Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Rising levels of vulnerability and complex need Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need •  Financial hardship and levels of rough sleeping • Mental health-related needs • Problematic Drug Use and overt NPS use • Risks and potential implications include:- • Rising ‘concern for safety’ demand and risk of harm • Missing persons, self-harm, vulnerable victims • Impact on public confidence and perception • Signal incidents - street homeless, begging, overt ‘Mamba’ use • Rising levels of chaotic acquisitive crime • Residential burglary, vehicle crime, shoplifting Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Rising levels of vulnerability and complex need Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Recommendations • Longer term problem-solving approaches and funding plans • Pre-crisis support: Early identification and response to escalating risk • Improvements in multi-agency information sharing & case management • Co-ordination of support offered by communities & VCS organisations • Maximise substance misuse referral and treatment outcomes • Traditional target hardening approaches / proactive awareness raising • Improve understanding of factors driving the rise in acquisitive crime • Ongoing commitment to: • Mental Health Crisis Care Concordat, IOM Troubled / Priority Families, Integrated Locality Working Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Growing gap in youth engagement and support Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Involvement in emerging crime networks / youth offending • Culture of knife possession among some marginalised groups • Increase in technologically-assisted harmful sexual behaviour • Risks and potential implications include:- • Sporadic and unpredictable incidents of serious violence • Rise in knife-related incidents linked to disputes over social media • Increasingly networked patterns of offending • Emerging Crime Groups and links to Serious and Organised Crime • Increasing levels of online hidden harm and exploitation • Impact a on future offending behaviour / sexual offending Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Growing gap in youth engagement and support Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Recommendations • Maximise availability of therapeutic support for young victims of abuse • Improving take up, quality and commitment to restorative justice • Improving consistency of child protection thresholds and recording • Support work in schools to develop engagement / early intervention • Softer engagement to develop trust and reporting among young people • Investment in digital investigation skills and capabilities, incl. social media • Ongoing commitment to: • Targeted diversionary activity, Youth Offending Teams, response to emerging crime group activity Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Criminal online communication, planning, buying and selling • Increasing international dimension to offending and victimisation • Evolving (technological) criminal practices and techniques • Risks and potential implications include:- • Increases in organised exploitation of vulnerable people • Modern Slavery, expansion of urban drug markets, radicalisation • Increasing cost and complexity of SOC investigation • Demands on digital investigation, national and international policing • Rising levels of on-line fraud, hacking, ‘Ransomware’ • Remote high profit, low risk criminality Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Recommendations • Improving understanding and use of partnership tools and powers • Maximise information sharing and partnership response to SOC • Further development of Cybercrime Strategy – skills and capabilities • Targeted cyber crime prevention, education and awareness raising • Modern Slavery education, awareness raising and partnership response • Ongoing commitment to: • Serious and Organised Crime Partnership plans, Prevent Programme Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Increasing disclosure / identification of hidden harm Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Reporting of domestic and sexual abuse and exploitation • Investigations and Inquiries triggering reports of non-recent cases • Identification of hidden harm – CSEA, modern slavery, FGM • Risks and potential implications include:- • Increased pressure on specialist victim support services • Mental health, therapeutic support, housing • Increasing pressure on investigative resources • Challenges in terms of workload prioritisation / decision making • Reduced service response to ‘non-enhanced’ victims • Risk to overall satisfaction due to competing demands Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Increasing disclosure / identification of hidden harm Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Recommendations • Continued investment in domestic and sexual abuse advocacy • Clarity of specialist pathways of support – e.g. modern slavery • Maximise availability of therapeutic support services, esp. young people • Improvements in compliance with the Victims’ Code • Improve understanding and monitoring victim journey and outcomes • Strengthen enforcement and rehabilitative responses to perpetrators • Ongoing commitment to: • Integrated victim care approach – ensuring services are tailored to meet the bespoke needs of victims Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Constraints in provision of mainstream services Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Calls for service and pressures on contact management • Public demand for action to tackle issues of local concern • Public demand for visible neighbourhood presence • Risks and potential implications include:- • Reductions in public confidence in local services • Failure to take action / effectively manage public expectations • Ongoing issues of high-impact community-level ASB • Noise nuisance, motorcycle-related nuisance, repeat demand • Reduction in officer and staff morale and welfare • Particularly in areas of high / increasing service pressures Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Constraints in provision of mainstream services Rising levels of vulnerability & complex need • Recommendations • Reducing inappropriate calls for service - proactive coms. / education • Improve understanding of factors driving higher than average demand • Engaging local communities in tackling issues that matter most to them • Develop and embed Neighbourhood Priority Plan Process • Develop and evaluate tailored approaches to engagement, incl. digital • Continue to promote and support officer / staff welfare • Develop clarity regarding the partnership response to road safety • Ongoing commitment to: • Local Neighbourhood problem solving approaches, understanding communities, representative workforce Youth support, engagement & early intervention Growing reach of serious & organised criminality Increasing hidden harm presentation & victim disclosure Mainstream policing service provision Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Opportunities to improve services to public • Reducing disparity in service outcomes, particularly BAME • Develop understanding of communities and their needs • Improve understanding of outcome disparity across key services • Trust and confidence in policing, esp. young people & BAME groups • Ensure staff trained/equipped to recognise discrimination and bias • Develop workforce which is representative of its communities • Drive efficiency in policing and CJS – technology & innovation • Plan for opportunities via Transformation and Innovation Funding • Support roll out of body worn video to improve efficiency / evidence • Support delivery of CJ Efficiency Programme and Police Priority Plan • Review local policing model to ensure right people, skills, structures • Explore opportunities for public sector reform – CJ, Bluelight services Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Needs Assessment