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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 28 February 2011. For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/. Outline. Highlights ENSO Current Status MJO Current Status

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Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

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  1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 28 February 2011 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

  2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

  3. Highlights Australia: A ridge of high pressure maintained dry, hot conditions across central and eastern Australia. Rainfall decreased across monsoon areas of northern Australia as well. A major tropical cyclone may impact northeastern Queensland during the upcoming week. Southern Africa:Scattered showers and thunderstorms fell across corn croplands of southern Africa. An area of below-average rainfall was observed across far northern South Africa. South America: A second week of below-average rainfall was observed in southeastern Brazil, with drier weather overspreading the central plateau region as well. Showers and thunderstorms were observed across northern and central Argentina, but the far northern states (Chaco and Formosa) received below average accumulation.

  4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • A mature La Niña is present across the equatorial Pacific. • Negative sea surface temperature anomalies have begun to weaken in parts of the Pacific Ocean. • ENSO-Neutral or La Niña conditions are equally likely during May-June 2011. During the last 4-weeks (31 Dec – 26 Feb 2011), SSTs were at least 1.0°C below average between 165°E and 110°W, while regions of above-average temperatures have emerged in the far eastern Pacific. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The MJO signal remained disorganized during the previous week. The GEFS forecast indicates a continued weak MJO signal during week 1, with some ensemble members increasing amplitude in week-2. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

  6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

  7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation A A Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.

  9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

  10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, widespread copious rainfall fell across monsoon regions of the tropical north.

  11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly

  12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly

  13. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

  14. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

  15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

  16. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

  17. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Below-average rainfall was observed across Kwazulu-Natal’s coastal sugarcane croplands.

  18. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly

  19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly

  20. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

  21. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

  22. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

  23. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

  24. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • Heavy monsoon thunderstorms overspread northern Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and western Bahia. • Numerous showers and thunderstorms fell across northern and central Argentina. Brazil Argentina

  25. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina

  26. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly Brazil Argentina

  27. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days

  28. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

  29. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly

  30. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly

  31. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 28 Feb 2011 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly

  32. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information

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