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Neal Fann U.S. EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Air Benefits and Cost Group

Neal Fann U.S. EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Air Benefits and Cost Group. Overview. What is the BenMAP model and what questions can it answer? How does EPA estimate human health benefits of Air rules? What is the scientific foundation underlying the model?

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Neal Fann U.S. EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Air Benefits and Cost Group

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  1. Neal Fann U.S. EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Air Benefits and Cost Group

  2. Overview • What is the BenMAP model and what questions can it answer? • How does EPA estimate human health benefits of Air rules? • What is the scientific foundation underlying the model? • On what projects has BenMAP been used? • Model demonstration • Next steps for BenMAP development

  3. What Kinds of Questions Can BenMAP Answer? • What are the benefits of modeled or monitored changes in ambient PM2.5,PM10 and Ozone? • What would the benefits be of a hypothetical reduction in PM2.5, PM10 and Ozone? • “What if Ozone levels were reduced by 20 percent in Texas?” or • “What is the impact of just attaining a 50 ug/m3 daily PM2.5 standard?” • What are the benefits of a modeled or hypothetical change in PM2.5,PM10 and Ozone in South Korea?

  4. The Data BenMAP Uses to Perform a Benefits Analysis US Census Data Population Projections Population Estimates Air Quality Modeling Air Quality Monitoring Population Exposure Projections Baseline & Projected Incidence Rates Health Functions Adverse Health Effects BenMAP Input User Input Choice Valuation Functions Economic Benefits Result from Inputs

  5. Key Features of BenMAP • User-friendly experience • Driven by windows-based graphical user interface • Enables users to perform a standardized or highly customized analysis • Results (exposure, incidence, and valuation) available in a variety of formats including ASCII, .dbf, and shape files • Comprehensiveness • Model includes a substantial population, health and air quality databases • Model incorporates an integrated GIS mapping, query, and statistics tool • Flexibility • Users can add their own population, air quality, and health databases

  6. What Health Effects Does EPA Quantify?

  7. Peer Review of BenMAP • BenMAP was peer-reviewed in Spring 2004. • The peer-review report is available on the BenMAP website and is included with all distributed CD-ROMs. • EPA’s peer-review guidance was followed to ensure an independent, expert review. • Peer review overall was very supportive of BenMAP model • Reviewers provided several comments we have now addressed

  8. Analytical Transparency • BenMAP designed for public use and public scrutiny • Published a detailed User’s Guide with extensive appendices documenting model algorithms and data sources • With each run, the user can generate an “audit trail” listing details of the run for QA and comparison with other analyses • Consistent with Data Quality Guidelines, this “audit trail” can and should be shared with reviewers

  9. Use of BenMAP in EPA Analyses • Past Projects: • Non-Road Diesel Rule • Clean Air Interstate Rule • PM2.5 NAAQS • Small Spark Ignition Rule • Locomotive and Marine Diesel Rule • Ozone NAAQS • Upcoming Projects: • SO2 NAAQS • NOx NAAQS

  10. Other BenMAP Projects • FAA aircraft analysis • Oregon woodstove analysis • New York City Department of Health borough-level analysis • Georgia Department of Natural Resources SIP planning • Philadelphia diesel PM2.5 benefits analysis

  11. BenMAP Applications Around the World CHINA IES; JES Seoul Park & Bae; Park NESCAUM Kleiman et al. UNITED STATES Chestnut & Mills; Hubbell et al. RTP Training INDIA Training Tokyo Japan EPA Mexico City Bell et al.; Instituto Nacional de Ecologia Georgia Marmur; Bell TAIWAN Training CUBA Carbonell et al. Mumbai Ojha et al. MEXICO Medio Ambiente; Envir. Reporters Yogyakarta BAQ 2006 Sao Paulo Bell et al. Santiago Bell et al. Perth Curtin U.

  12. Bell - impacts of ozone exposure in Northern Georgia • Bell et al. - health consequences of modest changes in fossil fuel use • Carbonell et al. - health impacts due to high sulfur fuels at power plants • Chestnut and Mills - benefits of US acid rain program • Hubbell et al. - NAAQS benefits • IES - air quality and GHG environment, health and economic co-benefits • Instituto Nacionale - benefits of a bus rapid transit system • JES - benefits of reducing SO2 emissions from power sector • Marmur - benefits of Georgia SIPs for ozone and PM2.5 • Medio Ambiente - benefits of reducing sulfur content in fuel • Mumbai - action plans for 18 Indian cities • NESCAUM - benefits of air quality and climate policies; ozone standards and public health • Park & Bae; Park - Seoul Air Quality Management Plan

  13. Model Demonstration • The new one-step analysis tool • The GIS tool • Reports

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