Assumptions for the Strategic Plan of the National Recreational Boating Safety Program

1. Assumptions for theStrategic Plan of theNational Recreational Boating Safety Program L. Daniel Maxim and Chuck Hawley

2. Contents • This presentation provides relevant baseline data for setting goals for fatalities and injuries • It contains a series of charts and explanatory material • The baseline projections are just that—they extrapolate trends and represent what would happen in the future absent change • Our team may elect to accept these “as is” or use these as a rational point of departure (POD) in setting goals

3. Background • Because utilization data (e.g., exposure hours) are not yet available, many projections are keyed to the estimated population of recreational boats • The contract to conduct a recreational boating survey has been awarded, but results from this survey will not be available in time for use in this planning revision • Reporting of boating accidents became mandatory in March 1959, so 1960 is a logical starting point for the time series analysis

4. How many Boats?

5. Boat population • Number of recreational boats is one basis for normalizing accident, injury, or fatality rates • Boat population is a surrogate (imperfect) for exposure data (e.g., hours underway)

6. Boat population • There are several estimates of the recreational boat population including: • Registered boats (consistent, but undercounts boats that are unpowered) • USCG estimates of total boats (based on several different studies but not available for all years) • NMMA (not available for all years)

7. Boat population • USCG now uses registered boats to analyze boating statistics, which we recommend be used despite limitations • Boat population is an inventory, which changes from year to year as a result of purchases of new boats and retirements from the fleet (implications) • The following slide compares estimates from USCG and NMMA

8. Boat population

9. New boats as % fleet • New boat sales may be quite responsive to economic drivers, but account for less than 5 % of the total number of recreational boats in any year • Thus, fleet size is less sensitive to economic conditions

10. Possible determinants of boat sales Disposable personal income/capita

11. Possible determinants of boat sales • Both population and DPI per capita have increased (DPI per capita at a greater rate) over the years • The population of boats also increased, but has not kept pace with population in recent years

12. Possible determinants of boat sales • Population size and DPI/capita are only two possible variables • Studies show that different population subgroups have different propensity to go boating and enjoy different aspects of the boating experience • Demographic shifts are taking place, which may lower growth rates for boat sales in the future

13. Demographic shifts The US population is becoming older and more racially and ethnically diverse Source: US Census Bureau

14. Boat population • In recent years the numbers of registered boats per capita has leveled off and actually declined slightly • Trend may reflect changing demographics and consumer tastes

15. Boat population • The net growth in registered boats (% per year) has been relatively low • For relatively short term forecasts it is reasonable to assume that the number of recreational boats will be roughly constant

16. Going forward • Recent economic situation has adversely impacted boat sales—although a recovery is arguably underway, the timing is uncertain • Earlier forecasts of boat sales by market research firms (e.g., Freedonia Inc.) now seen as optimistic • Near term forecast of a constant boat population unlikely to be far wrong—even if markets recover

17. Recreational boating accidents

18. Accidents • Data collected since 1959 and published annually by USCG in Boating Statistics • Accidents include those resulting in: • Fatalities, • Injuries, and • Property damage only (PDO)

19. Accidents • Fatalities believed to be accurately reported, but accidents resulting in injuries underreported, as are those resulting in PDO • Strategic plan focuses on fatalities and injuries, so some reasonable basis for projection necessary

20. Accident underreporting • July 2006 study by PIRE Inc. analyzed data from 2002; findings below • Reported fatalities were more than 99% of the estimates derived from multiple cause of death (MCOD) data from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) • Reported hospital-admitted injuries were approximately 80% of similar figures from the boating accident reporting database (BARD)

21. Accident underreporting Reported non-hospital admitted injuries were <10% (i.e., we missed over 90%) of estimates derived from other sources; minor changes in this proportion will significantly impact totals Results preliminary (more needs to be done), but consistent with prior information

22. Accidents • Time series of number of reported accidents and number of vessels • PDO damage thresholds also shown—significant dips occur when thresholds increased • Accidents appear to have increased over time, but trend may be an artifact of changes in reporting Question: What accounted for the dip in year 2000?

23. Injuries and fatalities • Injuries appear to have increased, but increases probably reflect better reporting • Fatalities have decreased in absolute and relative terms since 1973 • USCG typically calculates fatality rates relative to the number of registered boats

24. Recreational Boating Fatalities

25. Fatalities/100,000 boats

26. Fatalities/100,000 boats • Fatalities per 100,000 numbered recreational boats have decreased substantially since 1960 • Best overall estimate of rate of decrease 4.6% per year (1960-2008) [trend line on graph]

27. Fatalities/100,000 boats • From about 1990 to the present the rate of decrease has slowed to about 2.5% per year • Rate of improvement apparently slowed since 2000—although this might also be a reporting artifact, because USCG began using additional sources to supplement BARD reporting of fatalities in 2000

28. Precedents, a brief digression • Figure at right shows Class A mishap rates for Naval aviation from FY 1950 to 2008 • Similar model fits data (rate 8.6%/yr), but rate of improvement has also apparently lowered in recent years

29. Navy data: search for assignable causes • The Navy has spent some time trying to reduce mishap rates • Should we be looking at our data in the same way? • What “explanatory” factors would you include for recreational boating accidents?

30. More precedents—motor vehicles • Figure at left shows fatalities (blue line) and fatality rate (per 100 million vehicle miles traveled) for motor vehicles in the US • Overall shape of fatality rate plot resembles that for boating accidents, suggesting that a similar model would apply

31. More on motor vehicles • Data (filled blue circles) and fitted model (dashed gray line) for motor vehicle fatality rate—annual rate of improvement = 3.7%/yr • Note that post year 2000 data under- predicted

32. Back to the main theme: year on year changes in recreational boating fatality rate • Year on year changes show substantial variability from average rate of -4.6%/yr (dashed line) • The data suggest that rate of decrease in fatality rates may be slowing • Slowing of rate of change more evident in 5-yr moving average rate

33. Present goals set on basis of 5-yr moving average fatalities • 5-yr moving average time series of fatalities shown at left—present goals of strategic plan shown as dotted line (FY vs calendar yr issue) • Extrapolation may be reasonable over shorter time period

34. Possible models • Several models evaluated • Blue filled circles show estimated fatalities by FY • Dashed line shows one of several fitted models with reasonably good fit • Unfilled green circles show 5-yr moving average predicted fatalities using model depicted by dashed line

35. Projections • Here are the projections using the model described on the preceding slide:

36. Recommendations (fatalities) • Because inventory of boats likely to remain relatively constant over planning horizon, projecting fatality time series likely to be reasonable procedure to give baseline figures • Projections in strategic plan are keyed to FY basis; however, we think that data should be collected and analyzed on both a FY and calendar year basis

37. Recommendations (fatalities) • We see merit in trying to find “assignable causes” for safety improvements to date • Boat design improvements • Safety equipment improvements • Law enforcement; boater education • Exercise may not be able to be completed as part of the strategic planning effort, but certainly could be included in the plan

38. Recreational boating injuries

39. Injuries/100,000 boats • Highly variable, very little apparent trend • Overall statistics reflect both actual injuries and probable increases in reporting • Making reasonable forecasts of reported injuries is likely to be a continuing challenge

40. Injuries/reported accident • Apparent trend at left potentially very misleading • Might reflect changes in reporting threshold and variable extent of underreporting • Not recommended for forecasting purposes

41. Baseline injury forecasts • Figure at left is 5-yr moving average (MA) injuries as function of time, but converted to a FY basis • Since about the year 2000, 5-yr MA injuries have actually declined • This time series might be extrapolated to provide a baseline forecast

42. Extrapolation of post-2000 injury trends • Plot of 5-yr MA injuries by fiscal year—actual history shown in dark blue • Dots show goals of present strategic plan • Dashed lines show forecast at 1, 2, and 3%/yr improvement from FY 2000 base

43. Injury forecasts at various rates of improvement (%/yr from yr 2000)

44. Injury forecast • As with fatality forecasts, baseline value gives point of departure for goal setting • Many caveats necessary to accurately characterize forecast precision • We might consider making forecasts only for hospital-admitted injuries, where underreporting is less of an issue, but • We should continue efforts to estimate and correct for underreporting to properly estimate the social costs of accidents

45. Summary • Registered boats assumed constant • Baseline value for fatalities determined from extrapolation of trend of post 1980 fatality data calculated in terms of 5-yr moving average values • Baseline value for injuries determined from extrapolation of 5-yr MA injury time series using various rates of improvement • All baseline estimates to be reviewed by planning committee

46. Additional recommendations Continue to record and analyze data by both FY and CY Consider changing goals for injuries to those that are hospital admitted, but Continue to research methods for imputation of missing accident data to derive valid and unbiased estimates of the social costs of recreational boating accidents Sponsor (or conduct) more research on the analysis of accident/injury/fatality data

47. Things to think about • What, if any, modifications do you wish to make to the baseline forecasts? • Are these presently acceptable as planning targets? • Do you agree with the recommendations made in this presentation? • What can we learn by comparing the data from the states’ trends?

48. Thanks for your attention • Any additional questions?