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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 17, 2012. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 17, 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, southern India, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Sumatra/Jakarta islands of Indonesia, and southwestern Australia had below normal rainfall. Central and eastern India had above normal rainfall. Severe shortages that existed over India at the end of July had almost vanished by the recent above normal rains.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern over much of northern India was much above normal to bring the earlier deficits considerably down. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD) the all India Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR) from 1st June thru the 17th of September is now deficient by only about 6 % from their long term normal. This deficiency was as high as 20% just a few weeks ago.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days This past week, Gujarat, northwest and northwest regions including parts of Pakistan received above normal rainfall.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
Atmospheric Circulation The anomalous cyclonic circulation in the low level flow was associated with copious rainfall over northeast India..
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary During the past 90 days, southern India, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Laos, Sumatra/Jakarta islands of Indonesia, and southwestern Australia had below normal rainfall. Central and eastern India had above normal rainfall. Severe shortages that existed over India at the end of July had almost vanished by the recent above normal rains. The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern over much of northern India was much above normal to bring the earlier deficits considerably down. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD) the all India Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR) from 1st June thru the 17th of September is now deficient by only about 6 % from their long term normal. This deficiency was as high as 20% just a few weeks ago. This past week, Gujarat, northwest and northwest regions including parts of Pakistan received above normal rainfall. NCEP/GFS’s forecasts indicate opposite patterns of rainfall amounts over India in week1 and week 2 periods with below normal rainfall amounts over central and peninsular India in the first week and large rainfall deficits over northeastern India in the second week. It is not clear at this time if the monsoon season over India ending in September (as measured by IMR index) will end as a normal season or slightly below.
