Population growth theories and projections

1. Population growth theories and projections

2. Differing ideas about population growth For many years people have written about the “why’s” and “how’s” of population growth Optimists have concentrated on how the people adapt to the demands of population Pessimists write about the problems that population growth has caused or may cause

3. Optimistic Views • Cornucopians • Once again believe that humans and technology can increase the worlds growth and we can overcome any shortages of resources • Evidence is from the industrial revolutions and agricultural revolutions

4. What do you think is the next revolution? • Impossible to predict, but they’d probably respond with the idea that we will find a way to harness solar and wind power cheaply and more effectively. This would solve a major energy issue that faces the world

5. Bogue • In the 1960’s DJ Bogue, wrote what he called a theory of demographic regulation. • He believed that over time a society regulates its own population and the population will only grow in the response to the Earth’s ability to support it. • Supporters of this theory believe that, naturally, the Worlds population will stop growing

6. The industrial revolution allowed for a natural increase so this fits with the theory In developed countries, such as Sweden, the population has already naturally limited itself, while developing countries like Mexico, the populations are still growing Bogue’s Theory is apparently supported by the DTM (demographic transition model)

7. Pessimistic views • Thomas Malthus • Malthusian remember, is tied to “Doom and Gloom” • Believed that populations grow geometrically (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32) and food grows arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5)

8. As a result! • People would be able to grow much quicker than the production of food and this would lead to shortages and famine. • This, he believed, will then cause the destruction of the human population

9. William Catton • Expanded the views of Malthus • He talked about the Earth’s carrying capacity • Said: “the earth’s carrying capacity COULD be exceeded, BUT it would be at the expense of the environment”. (talking about environmental damage

10. Catton claims we have been living above the capacity for years and it is our use of resources (non renewable) that has allowed us to survive creating a “Phantom Carrying Capacity” Eventually, everything will fall apart

11. Work on questions 1-6 on page 81

12. Population Explosion and Control Going back to the DTM, countries who find themselves in the post transition stage of development will greatly benefit from the economic and social growth

13. This refers to urbanization, globalization, empowered women in society, a rich resource base, and increased access to public welfare in areas like education, healthcare and technology.

14. But what happens if a country moves through the DTM but does not reach stage 4 (post transition stage)?

15. The demographic trap Countries in the far periphery or in the near core, may never actually make it to the final stage of the DTM This is known as the demographic trap

16. The demographic trap is where the countries continue to experience high birth rates instead of a declining birth rate in the late transition stage (3rd stage of the DTM) Mix this with a declining death rate results in an extended population explosion that can run out of control

17. This puts a great stress on the country in areas like food, healthcare and education If this is not corrected, the Malthusian collapse is unavoidable! (living above the carrying capacity will lead to environmental and economic destruction)

18. Food and population Food is the most basic problem with overpopulation India has been able to supply enough food for their massive population as they are benefitting greatly from the green revolution The green revolution is when a bunch of farming innovations increased their yield since the 1940s

19. Education and population Education is incredibly important in order for a country to move through the DTM India with its massively growing population, unfortunately has some issues regarding education of its people

20. To this day there are large amounts of adult citizens who are unable to read and write which are the very basic forms of communication They have been working hard to reverse this situation

21. Employment and population The more people you have, the more competition for jobs there are Ex. 50 people apply to 40 jobs. Or, 50 people apply to 4 jobs For the green revolution in India, most people found employment in farming. Now, farming has less opportunity as it has reached its maximum

22. As a result, people are becoming unemployed and are forced into the city However, due to their lack of education, they are unable to take advantage of that If you lose your farm and you’ve never attended school, you cannot find employment in the growing technological field of work

23. Population control

24. Population control Who are the worlds 2 most populous countries? China and India Both with over 1 billion people living within their country borders

25. For the past couple of decades China has been able to curb their fertility rate Meanwhile India has been a bit late to curb theirs as they have only began to limit fertility not too long ago

26. It is actually predicted that India’s population will surpass China’s in the years 2020 and 2030!

27. How are they limiting fertility? • Government population control • We will take a look at India’s population control vs China’s

28. India’s population control By the 1950s the fertility rate of the women of India has been sitting around 6 children per woman Since the 1950s this number has declined to about 3 children per woman but is not seeing a further decline What has declined though, was the countries death rate! (stage 2-3 in DTM)

29. Phases of India’s child policies • Phase 1 (1950-1961) • Clinic approach • Clinics encouraged family planning through contraception and sterilization • However it was difficult to educate to everyone across all the rural areas

30. Phase 2 (1962-1969) • Target oriented sterilization 1 • There was a mandatory “target number” of vasectomies and contraception distribution that had to be met

31. Phase 3 (1969-1975) • Target oriented sterilization 2 • Vasectomies are now the main form of control • Men were paid to have them • It was effective. They had clinics doing 60,000 in a week

32. Phase 4 (1976-1977) • Coercive approach (forcing people) • Families were only allowed 3 children • If vasectomy target numbers were not hit, the clinic was punished • Men were at times forced • Over 8million vasectomies were carried out in 1 year!

33. Phase 5 (1977-1994) Backlash from the people (they did not like being forced) Stopped in 1977, emphasis now on educating and voluntary birth control Women were now responsible for sterilization surgeries (“tubes tied”)

34. Phase 6 (1995-Present) India signed the UN Program of Action which removed the “growth targets” and instead, adopted health services aimed at achieving fertility level of 2 children per woman by 2010

35. Side notes: • Male babies were preferred seeing as they could help on the farms and help care for aging parents (no old age social programs) • Female fetus’s were usually aborted until India outlawed telling the parents the gender of their child

36. Compare this to China’s Policies… Then vs Now… Are these plans successful?