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Explore the stages of the Theory of Demographic Transition and contrasting perspectives such as Malthusian pessimism and Cornucopian optimism. Learn about carrying capacity, population regulation, and global population dynamics.
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Theory of Demographic Transition • Demographic Transition-The phenomenon of population changes in a country over time
Stage 1 Pre-Transition • High, stable birth rate • High, fluctuating death rate • No natural increase • Rural/Agricultural society • No countries in the world are at this stage
Stage 2-Early Transition • High birth rate • Falling death rate-“Germ Theory of Disease Control” • Large natural increase • Rural/Agricultural society
Stage 3-Late Transition • Falling birth rate (birth control) • Low death rate • Decreasing natural increase • Urban/Manufacturing society
Stage 4-Post Transition • Low birth rate • Low death rate • No natural increase • Urban/Service sector based society
Stage 5?? Post-Post Transition? • Death rate>Birth rate= Natural Decrease
Pessimistic Views-Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) • Political economist who recorded concerns about changes occurring in Europe in the early nineteenth century • -Europe at the time was entering a period of rapid industrialization, but also very rapid population growth. • -According to Malthus, the population appeared to be growing in a geometric sequence (1,2,4,8,16…)- too quickly for the food supply which could only increase arithmetically (1,2,3,4…) .He felt that population, if uncontrolled, would be "checked" by certain things: • "Positive" Checks • 1. Disease-"The Black Death" • 2. War-Napoleon, Crusades... • 3. Famine-India • "Negative" Checks • -predicted that mankind would consciously prevent births through: • 1. Choice • 2. Delayed marriage
Present Day "Positive" Checks • 1. Aids, Ebola • 2. Africa’s situation (Life expectancy-38 years) • Malthus could never have predicted: • -Global access to medicine, water, food • -Widespread birth control • -Global awareness • -Fear of nuclear destruction
William Catton • Introduced the concept of the earth’s carrying capacity • He suggests that the earth has been exceeding its carrying capacity for many years; this has been possible because we have been using up non-renewable resources that future generations will need • This is known as a “phantom carrying capacity”-while allowing a higher population, is ultimately non-sustainable and the economic and ecological systems will collapse
Optimistic Views • Cornucopians-have faith in the human ability to find technological innovations that will increase the earth’s carrying capacity • D.J. Bogue-Theory of Demographic Regulation-over an extended period of time, a society naturally limits its population. The population will grow only in response to the Earth’s ability to support it.
