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Evangelicals, Born Agains, and Fundamentalist Christians in Election 2004

Evangelicals, Born Agains, and Fundamentalist Christians in Election 2004. May 26, 2004 Source: www.greenbergresearch.com www.zogby.com. Two Polls. Greenberg Research Survey of all evangelicals in America Conducted April 5 th , 2004 Zogby International

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Evangelicals, Born Agains, and Fundamentalist Christians in Election 2004

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  1. Evangelicals, Born Agains, and Fundamentalist Christians in Election 2004 May 26, 2004 Source: www.greenbergresearch.com www.zogby.com

  2. Two Polls • Greenberg Research • Survey of all evangelicals in America • Conducted April 5th, 2004 • Zogby International • Survey of evangelicals in 16 battleground states • Conducted between May 18th and May 23rd, 2004

  3. Greenberg Research – Evangelical Demographics • Evenly spread throughout the country • 31% live in the Deep South • 19% live in the Central Northeast • 14% live on the Pacific coast • Evangelicals disproportionately live in rural areas (25%) or small towns (31%)

  4. Greenberg Research – Demographics (cont.) • 55% of Evangelicals believe it is very important we show support for Israel in contrast with only 40% of Americans in general. • 82% of Evangelicals are registered voters and 65% of those reported that they voted in both 2000 and 2002. • 15% of Evangelicals are Afro-American, 75% of whom are staunch Kerry supporters.

  5. White evangelicals are mainly conservative and support Bush’s re-election bid. Among those who vote, 74% support Bush as opposed to 23% that support Kerry. More politically engaged than general population. More likely to participate politically due to religiosity. While 1 in 5 white evangelical voters are Democrat, they are less likely to vote than their Republican counterparts. Greenberg Research –White Evangelicals

  6. Greenberg Research – Evangelical Foreign Policy • Moved more by conservative ideology rather than faith-based altruism. • Priorities include homeland security, war on terror, and safety from foreign aggression. • Evangelicals are much more pro-Israeli (55% versus 40%) than Americans in general. • However, there is little difference from the general population with regard to Palestinian rights.

  7. CNI / Zogby Poll Results -Evangelical Views on the Mideast • 49% of Born Agains support making Israel accountable for her actions. 33% do not support making Israel accountable. (April 5, 2004) • 40% of Born Agains agree that the state of Palestine should now be recognized. 30% disagree with the remainder unsure. (July 2003)

  8. Poll of likely voters in the 16 “battleground states” Arkansas (6) Florida (27) Iowa (7) Michigan (17) Minnesota (10) Missouri (11) Nevada (5) New Hampshire (4) New Mexico (5) Ohio (20) Oregon (7) Pennsylvania (21) Tennessee (11) Washington (11) West Virginia (5) Wisconsin (10) Zogby International

  9. Bush won by 537 votes in 2000 29% Kerry 63% Bush 30% of likely voters are “evangelical” Zogby International –Florida

  10. Gore won by 204,000 (4.2%) votes in 2000 20% Kerry 79% Bush 17% of likely voters are “evangelical” Zogby International – Pennsylvania

  11. Bush won 165,000 (3.5%) votes in 2000 16% Kerry 80% Bush 20% of likely voters are “evangelical”. Zogby International –Ohio

  12. Gore won by 217,000 (5.1%) votes in 2000 23% Kerry 70% Bush 20% of likely voters are “evangelical”. Zogby International –Michigan

  13. Zogby International – All 16 Battleground States

  14. Questions • Will the election depend on how many born again, fundamentalist, or evangelical voters turn out? • Does Bush’s re-election hinge on raising the number of such voters from 65% participation to 70% or more?

  15. Conclusion • “Bad politicians are elected by good people who don’t vote.” – Billy Graham, Evangelist • Karl Rove fears Evangelicals not voting in 2004

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