Scotland’s Ageing Workforce: An emerging market for Universities?

1. Scotland’s Ageing Workforce: An emerging market for Universities? Graham Smith Centre for Lifelong Learning University of Strathclyde Scottish Higher Education Employability Conference, Edinburgh, 2 June 2011

2. Contents • Changing demographics and observations • Engaging older workers – an empirical study • Reflections

3. Changing demographics: Scotland • Changing population structure and ageing population • Below replacement level fertility rate • Increasing life expectancy • Historical negative net migration

4. 1. Population change • UK Population (Thousands) 1901 to 2009 • Increase: • 68% • 16% • 45% • 61% Sources: Adapted from Hicks and Allen, 2009 ; 2001 UK Census and Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2009.

5. Population change Comparison of population change for UK countries, 2008-2033 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010:

6. Changing age structure The changing age structure of Scotland’s population, 1999-2009 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

7. 2. Low fertility rate • Total fertility rate and replacement rate, Scotland, 1951-2008 Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

8. 3. Increasing life expectancy* • UK 1901 • M = 45 F = 49 • UK 2007-09 • M = 77.9 F = 81.9 • Scotland • M = 74.8 F = 79.7 • Kensington • M = 83.7 F = 87.8 • Glasgow • M = 70.8 F = 77.1 • (East End Glasgow = 63.5 for men; lower than Iraq = 68.3) Source: GRO Scotland, 2010 and ONS,2010

9. 4. Migration • Estimated net migration, Scotland, 1951-2009 Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

10. Changing age structure • Projected percentage change in age structure of Scotland’s population, • 2008-2033 Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

11. Change in births Projected % change in births (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

12. Change in young people Projected % change in population aged 0-15 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

13. Change in number of older people Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age¹ (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 • Source: GRO Scotland, 2010

14. Observation: Changing policy • Increasing of state pension age in process – increase to 66 by 2020, 67 by 2036 and 68 by 2046 • Removal of Default Retirement Age (DRA) • Encouraging individuals to work longer through reducing benefits and removing barriers e.g. DRA But here lies the paradox: government are encouraging individuals to work longer, yet strategies for workforce rationalisation tend to target older workers • Workforce ageing: 33.6% of public sector workers are aged 50+ (Loretto, 2011) Pensions Bill, 2011

15. Observation: Organisational response

16. Observation: Impact on individuals • Increasing uncertainty • Once out of the labour market, older adults less likely to re-enter labour market than younger people (TAEN, 2009) • A real need for advice and guidance

17. Impact on future strategy • There will be fewer young people in the future • There will be a greater number of older adults in the future • 61 FE and HE institutions will compete for declining number of young people • Is ‘Internationalisation’ the only viable option? • Or is there an emerging market…………….?

18. Opportunity in the face of adversity? • University of Strathclyde 10/11 – 3% of UG/PG students aged 50+ • Cardonald College Glasgow 10/11 – 12.4% of students aged 50+ • Centre for Lifelong Learning Evening and Weekend programme: • 2005/6 = 16% of students aged 50+ • 2010/11 = 35% of students aged 50+ • Learning in Later Life programme: 3,900 students aged 50+

19. Skills for Scotland: A lifelong skills strategy • Application 2007 – National ESF Priority 2 project led by Adam Smith College • Commenced June 2008 with 13 national partner organisations • Key target groups: • Low skilled, low paid employees including those with low levels of literacy and numeracy • E-skills for potential new entrepreneurs and managers • Training, mentoring and support for older workers and BME communities

20. Realising Your Potential project Key objectives of the project are to assist older workers aged 50+ to: • Re-engage with learning • Update their existing skills and develop new skills • Assess current work ability and explore work potential • Enhance their future employability • Consider working longer and/or postpone retirement

21. ‘Double Loop’ learning model Stage 5 Progress onto new learning opportunities Based on Argyris & Schön, 1978

22. Findings: Beneficiary data

23. Findings: Learning and qualifications • 19% of participants considered to be low skilled (SCQF Level 2 and below) • 21% participated in formal learning in past 5 years with 86% participating in informal learning • All participants had experienced classroom based learning • 25% experience of distance learning e.g. Open University • 42% experience of on-line learning • Two groups delivered on employer premises (Civil Service and Health Authority) - 95% of CS group left school with no formal qualifications

24. Findings: Accessing advice and guidance • Lack of awareness of national all-age guidance service and services available – 78% unaware • 20% likely or extremely likely to use services of Skills Development Scotland • 38% unsure and 42% unlikely to engage • The overall perception of the service was: ‘not sure it’s relevant to me’ • Similar challenge for Universities……………?

25. Findings: Future uncertainty • 61% of participants likely or extremely likely to work beyond Statutory Retirement Age • A further 30% unsure whether they will work beyond SRA • Only 9% indicated they were unlikely to work beyond SRA

26. Evaluation: Questionnaire • Q. Since your participation in the programme, which of the following • would best describe your current situation?

27. Evaluation: Questionnaire • Q. What personal outcomes do you feel have been achieved since • completing the programme?

28. Evaluation: Questionnaire • Q. What personal outcomes do you feel have been achieved since • completing the programme?

29. Reflection: State Pension Age • Both Men and Women Source: Pensions Advisory Service, 2011 • Re-defining employability and learning in later life

30. Reflection: Transitions in later life • For many individuals, working in later life is a dot on the horizon • Capacity to deal with change and uncertainty varies significantly from person to person and is amplified by age • A number of ‘life transitions’ exist over the age of 50 Source: Phillipson, 2002

31. Reflection: Encouraging lifelong learning • One of the greatest predictors of participation in learning at a later stage in life is the amount of initial education • The amount of initial education is likely to be greater for future generations Source: Smith, 2010

32. Thank You Contact details: Graham Smith graham.smith@strath.ac.uk