The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

1. The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)12 & 13 May 2011 Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Martin Zimmermann, Johannes Warth, Heiko von der Gracht, Inga-Lena Darkow Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management EBS Business School, Wiesbaden, Germany

2. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Motivation & Objective Backcasting Combination of Delphi, Scenario Planning and Backcasting Delphi-based 4-step Backcasting Methodological Discussion Limitations & Further Research 1 2 3 4 5 6 2

3. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Motivation & Objective Motivation • Radical systemic changes to current systems of mobility necessary to achieve sustainable development (Nykvist & Whitmarsh, 2008) • German government to establish up to 1 million electric vehicles on the streets until 2020 and over 5 million vehicles until 2030 (Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development, 2009) • Combinations of technological, cultural, societal, institutional, and organizational changes required for such transformations (Quist & Vergragt, 2006) • Approach for achieving transitions towards a sustainable future is backcasting(Dreborg, 1996) Objective • Demonstration of an innovative qualitative backcasting approach (Delphi & Semi-structured interviews) to analyze transformations to sustainable mobility / facilitate future-oriented decision making • Advantages of combining these two methods will be highlighted and critically reflected • Usage of Backcasting as best practice for Competitiveness Monitor (CoMo) research project The content of this presentation is based on the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor”, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (project reference number: 01IC10L18 A). Project duration: 06/2010 – 05/2013. Responsibility for the content is with the author(s). 3

4. = Drivers = Obstacles = Overall Trends Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Backcasting 2030 Desired Future Present Probable Future Plausibility Check • complex and persistent problems are in focus, • dominant trends are part of the problem, • external factors are present, • the need for major change exists, • the time frame and thematic focus allow for radical changes. Dreborg (1996): Backcasting particularly useful when… 4

5. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Combination of Delphi, Scenario Planning and Backcasting Development of projections Evaluation of projections • Scenario Writing • Development of Factors Expert Check Delphi (von der Gracht & Darkow, 2010) Scenario Transfer Scenario Development Generic Scenario Planning (Bishop et al, 2007; Shermack et al., 2001) Strategic Problem Orientation Backcasting analysis Elaborate future alternative & define follow-up agenda Embed results and agenda & stimulate follow-up Develop future vision Backcasting (Quist, 2007) 5

6. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Delphi-based 4-step Backcasting 2 Development of future images and influencing factors Development of a Desirable Scenario 1 Strategic problem orientation Scenario development technique Strategic problem orientation Development of 20 projections according to STEP Execution of a RealTime Delphi Survey Development of 9 main influential factors Structured desk research / Expert workshops Coding of Delphi arguments 4 3 Development of measures Continuation Follow-up activities Backcasting – Assessing the way towards the desirable scenario Systematic identification of „hot topics“/patterns Workshops, lectures, CoMo, etc. Semi-structured interviews Descriptive Coding / „Grounded Coding“ approach Pattern coding 6

7. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Strategic problem orientation 1 Strategic Problem Orientation • Identification of fundamental research issues to be addressed • Several stakeholder workshops with participants from OEMs, suppliers, government, academics • Enrichment of findings of the workshop by comprehensive desk research activities • Focus on German government’s plans: • Reduction of carbon dioxide emissions until 2020 by 40%, compared to 1990 (Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, 2007) • Key pillar: Strengthening e-mobility until 2030 Development of future projections • STEP analysis (social, technological, economical and political factors) • In-depth analysis of a sample of academic studies and governmental-related reports • Future workshop with 11 business and six academic experts • Formulation of 20 projections in short, descriptive and provoking propositions 7

8. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Development of future images and influencing factors 2 Characteristics of Delphi Online-based, real-time Delphi tool • Group communication process (Linstone & Turoff, 1975) • Based on expert knowledge • Anonymous survey process • Feedback after each round • Statistical & qualitative analysis • Consensus seeking • Results represent adequate substitute for lack of empirical data (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963) 8

9. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Development of future images and influencing factors 2 Delphi Participants • Participation of 140 experts • Response rate of 31% (of 441 invitations) • Diverse sample of experts from 15 different groups Identification of influencing factors Energy mix for vehicle operation • Coding of more than 2,000 qualitative arguments in order to identify the influencing factors • Identification of nine main factors • Expert check for validation Germany's competitiveness Comodal mobility Changing market structure Technological maturity Government intervention Infrastructural conditions Raw material supply Customer preferences 9

10. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Development of future images and influencing factors 2 Desirable Scenario 2030: Electric Mobility’s Dominance 10

11. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Development of future images and influencing factors 2 Desirable Scenario 2030: Electric Mobility’s Dominance • Electric drives (especially battery-electric vehicles, range extender and plug-in hybrids) dominate the number of new registrations in Germany. • Conventional power trains cannot keep up with electrical drives with regard to essential performance indicators. • The success of electric vehicles was supported by three key developments: • (1) the increased willingness of customers to pay more for these drive systems, • (2) a large part of energy obtained for new drive concepts originates from renewable sources • (3) the comprehensive provision of efficient and cheap charging facilities for electric drives • In the segments of medium and light commercial vehicles partially or fully electric drives are standard. • The market for new drive concepts is dominated by manufacturers from Europe and Asia alike. • In this case the raw material supply does not constitute a bottleneck in the dissemination of new drive concepts. • Customers mainly use an optimally coordinated network of comodal mobility services. 11

12. Process • 43 interviews with experts proceeding from 15 Delphi interest groups • Alignment of the interview sample’s distribution • Descriptive / Pattern Coding with Nvivo Software Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Development of measures 3 Main goals • Identification of measures that need to be taken in order to realize the desirable scenario • Identification of actors that need to become active in order to make the change happen • Determination of the timeliness of the different measures 12

13. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Development of measures 3 Selected discussed topics • Incentivisation for customers vs. industry (R&D) support • Role of established vs. new companies / co-operations • Role of comodal mobility for electric mobility scenario Continuation 4 Process • Follow-up of backcasting exercises very important to actually use and implement the content that has been generated (Quist & Vergragt, 2006) • Multiple workshops with stakeholders from the automotive industry • Contribution to the joint research project “Competitiveness Monitor” (CoMo) within the EffizienzCluster LogistikRuhr of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research 13

14. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Methodological Discussion • So far, (qualitative) participatory backcasting approaches mostly executed with the help of workshops and focus group discussions(Carlsson-Kanyama, 2011; Dreborg, Moll, & Padovan, 2008; Kok et al., 2006; Svenfelt et al., 2011). • Aim of our backcasting exercise: Inclusion of a diverse group of stakeholders not only in the development of the scenarios, but also in the backcasting step itself. • Combination of an innovative Delphi survey with individual semi-structured expert interviews and following structured coding • By using the web-based real-time Delphi approach we were able to invite a broad number of participants (140) to the study which enabled us to reach experts from 15 different user groups. • Our approach enables us to both include a large number of different stakeholders and still having a structured and comprehensible process (coding) of how the results are analysed and further used 14

15. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Limitations & Further Research Limitations • Broad range of opinions in both Delphi and interviews step did not allow for a consensus in all cases e.g. when developing the scenarios or elaborating on the measures • Difficulties in elaborating on timeliness of single measures due to variety of topics discussed Further Research • Optimisation of structured stakeholder inclusion in 3rd step (backcasting) • Combination of several Delphis for 1) scenario creation and 2) backcasting analysis • Recruitment of “opposing party” discussion panels based on Delphi data • Expert vs. non-expert validation of scenarios etc. 15

16. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Thank you! Center for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management EBS Business School Soehnleinstr. 8 F D-65201 Wiesbaden / Germany Tel. +49 611 7102 2100 Fax +49 611 360 18 802 Email future@ebs.edu www.ebs.edu/futurestudies 16

17. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Backup 17

18. Developing a Backcasting Approach for Systemic Transformations Towards Sustainable Mobility – The Case of the Automotive Industry in Germany Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Timeframe Methodological Lead Center for Futures Studies. Shaping the future together! Mission • To pursue scientifically-established research in Futures Studies and manage its quality • To generate futures knowledge to support decision-making processes on governmental, economic and scientific issues • To establish Futures Studies research as an academic discipline / strategic instrument in business practice Achievements • Contract research with business partners (futures studies, tool development) • Scenario transfer: turn research results into strategy • Collaborate in public sector research projects • High diversity in team (mix of expertise) • Methodical and professional competence Key Aspects Center for Futures Studies Research and Knowledge Management Research • Scenario and Delphi Analyses • Roadmapping & Backcasting • Early Warning and Risk Management • Wildcard Analyses • Futures Studies Workshops • Method Integration (Scenario-Toolbox) Create the future together Network • Part of EBS Network with 180 partner universities and 200 business partners worldwide • Anchored in the Foresight-Community: Network for Future Studies Research, European Foresight Network, World Future Society, Oxford Scenario Network, EIRAC • Present in emerging markets (Russia, India and China) • www.ebs.edu/smi/futurestudies.html

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