WP II - Rainfall Uncertainty

1. WP II - Rainfall Uncertainty Hadas Reiser, Haim Kutiel, Shlomit Paz, Lea Wittenberg(hreiser@geo.haifa.ac.il,kutiel@geo.haifa.ac.il,shlomit@geo.haifa.ac.il,leaw@geo.haifa.ac.il) GABARDINE – Fourth Consortium Meeting March 19th – 23th2007, Barcelona & Sabadell, Spain Laboratory of Climatology,Department of Geography & Environmental Studies,University of Haifa

2. Introduction

3. Introduction (cont.) RUM (Rainfall Uncertainty Model) SAD (Starting Analysis Date) MERR (Most Expected Rainfall Regime) Parameters describing the annual rainfall Parameters describing the Rain Spells distribution Parameters describing the temporal rainfall distribution Parameters describing Dry Spells distribution Parameters describing the distribution of extreme values AverageTOTAL (Annual Rainfall) NRS(d)(Number of Rain Spells) MedianDAP (Date of Accumulated Percentage) SDS(j,q) (Sorted Dry Spells) AMED(d) (Average/Median ratio) SAR(j,q)(Sorted Accumulated Rainfall) RC(d) (Relative Contribution) MedianRSL (Rainy Season Length) 50/50(d) (50% rainfall/50% rain days ratio) SAP(j,q)(Sorted Accumulated Percentage) RSY(d) (Rain Spell Yield) RSY(d)/day(Rain Spell Yield per day)

4. Introduction (cont.) Parameters describing the annual rainfall Parameters describing the Rain Spells distribution Parameters describing the temporal rainfall distribution Parameters describing Dry Spells distribution Time Series TOTAL NRS(d) DAP(p) DS(j,q)(Dry Spells) AR(j,q)(Accumulated Rainfall) RC(d) RSL AP(j,q) (Accumulated Percentage) RSY(d) Extreme Values Maximum and minimumTOTAL MaximumNRS(d) Earliest and latestDAP(p) Longest DS(j,q) Maximum RC(d) Shortest and longestRSL MaximumRSY(d)

5. Parameters describing the annual rainfall

6. Time series of TOTAL rainfall for the Spanish and Portuguese test sites

7. Time series of TOTAL rainfall for the Greek and Israeli test sites

8. Parameters describing the rain spells distribution

9. Time series of NRS for the Spanish and Portuguese test sites(an example for rainspells of 2 days)

10. Time series of NRS for the Greek and Israeli test sites(an example for rainspells of 2 days)

11. Time series of RC for the Spanish and Portuguese test sites(an example for rainspells of 2 days)

12. Time series of RC for the Greek and Israeli test sites(an example for rainspells of 2 days)

13. Time series of RSY for the Spanish and Portuguese test sites (an example for rainspells of 2 days)

14. Time series of RSY for the Greek and Israeli test sites(an example for rainspells of 2 days)

15. Parameters describing the temporal rainfall distribution

16. Time series of DAP for the Spanish and Portuguese test sites

17. Time series of DAP for the Greek and Israeli test sites

18. Cluster analysis of the rainfall percentage for Barcelona Distance 55 66.6% 607 mm 22.2% 572 mm 11.1% 685 mm

19. Cluster analysis of the rainfall percentage for Lagos Distance 65 61.3% 578 mm 28.7% 533 mm 4.0% 518 mm 4.0% 402 mm 2.0% 707 mm

20. Cluster analysis of the rainfall percentage for Picota Distance 100 48.0% 684 mm 46.0% 607 mm 4.0% 519 mm 2.0% 443 mm

21. Cluster analysis of the rainfall percentage for Sindos Distance 100 80.1% 458 mm 10.9% 468 mm 3.6% 457 mm 3.6% 494 mm 1.8% 284 mm

22. Cluster analysis of the rainfall percentage for Thessaloniki Distance 90 69.0% 446 mm 14.6% 399 mm 12.8% 475 mm 1.8% 310 mm 1.8% 317 mm

23. Cluster analysis of the rainfall percentage for Nirim Distance 90 83.9% 305 mm 10.7% 341 mm 3.6% 203 mm 1.8% 118 mm

24. Cluster analysis of the rainfall percentage for Dorot Distance 75 83.6% 365 mm 9.8% 272 mm 6.6% 414 mm

25. Time series of RSL for the Spanish and Portuguese test sites

26. Time series of RSL for the Greek and Israeli test sites

27. Further to do Parameters describing the annual rainfall Parameters describing the Rain Spells distribution Parameters describing the temporal rainfall distribution Parameters describing Dry Spells distribution RRU(Rainfall Regime Uncertainty DAR DNRS DDAP DDS DRSL DAP DRC DRSY UI (Uncertainty Index) Mapping