The 5 Changes: Architects, the AIA, and the Future

1. Architects, the AIA and the 5 ChangesTom PetersAIA/Charlotte/05.09.2002

2. All Slides Available at …tompeters.comNote: Lavender text in this file is a link.

3. Prepping for Charlotte: A week at …47 Park Street(With a view of Grosvenor Square)

4. THE 5 CHANGESThe world changes.The work changes.The firm changes.The talent changes.The client changes.

5. THE WORLD CHANGES.

6. “There will be more confusion in the business world in the next decadethan in any decade in history. And the current pace of change will only accelerate.”Steve Case

7. THE WORK CHANGES.

8. A White Collar Revolution.

9. E.g. …Jeff Immelt: 75% of “admin, back room, finance” “digitalized” in 3 years.Source: BW (01.28.02)

10. 2010 “Demographics”:By 2010, full-time workers will be in the minoritySource: MIT study (28August2000)

11. New World of Work< 1 in 10 F500#1: Manpower Inc.Freelancers/I.C.: 16M-25MTemps: 3M (incl. CEOs & lawyers)Microbusinesses: 12M-27MTotal: 31M-55MSource: Daniel Pink, Free Agent Nation

12. “The fundamental unit of the new economy is not the corporation, but the individual. Tasks aren’t assigned and controlled through a stable chain of command but are carried out autonomously by independent contractors - e-lancers - who join together in fluid and temporary networks to sell goods and services. When the job is done, the network dissolves and its members become independent again, circulating through the economy, seeking the next assignment.” Thomas Malone and Robert Laubacher

13. “Ebusiness is about rebuilding the organization from the ground up. Most companies today are not built to exploit the Internet. Their business processes, their approvals, their hierarchies, the number of people they employ … all of that is wrong for running an ebusiness.”Ray Lane, Kleiner Perkins

14. “Suppose – just suppose – that the Web is a new world we’re just beginning to inhabit. We’re like the earlier European settlers in the United States, living on the edge of the forest. We don’t know what’s there and we don’t know exactly what we need to do to find out: Do we pack mountain climbing gear, desert wear, canoes, or all three? Of course while the settlers may not have known what the geography of the New World was going to be, they at least knew that there was a geography. The Web, on the other hand, has no geography, no landscape. It has no distance. It has nothing natural in it. It has few rules of behavior and fewer lines of authority. Common sense doesn’t hold here, and uncommon sense hasn’t yet emerged.” David Weinberger, Small Pieces Loosely Joined

15. Consequences for the built environment: Richter 8.4Time frame: 10 - 20 years.

16. E. g.: A low-rise world instead of a high-rise world (9-11 plays to this as well)?Silicon Valley—or Redmond, RTP—as visual model? Manhattan? Home offices & virtual collaboration rather than work offices & physical collaboration? (Gilder vs. Peters/Forbes ASAP.)

17. “Talk to kids. Watch how they use such tools as instant messaging, and you can learn it all. Kids hold the clue to the future of technology.”John Patrick, ebusiness guru, IBM

18. THE FIRM CHANGES.

19. Re-imagining the Professional Service Firm Model.

20. The Big Day!

21. 09.11.2000: HP bids $18,000,000,000for PricewaterhouseCoopersconsulting business!

22. “These days, building the best server isn’t enough. That’s the price of entry.”Ann Livermore, Hewlett-Packard

23. “We want to be the air traffic controllers of electrons.”Bob Nardelli, GE Power Systems

24. Was: Bunch of Guys Who Make Circuit Breakers Division.Is: GE Industrial Systems.

25. Gerstner’s IBM: Systems Integrator of choice. Global Services: $35B.Pledge/’99: Business Partner Charter. 72 strategic partners, aim for 200. Drop many in-house programs/products. (BW/12.01).

26. “UPS wants to take over the sweet spot in the endless loop of goods, information and capital that all the packages [it moves] represent.”ecompany.com/06.01 (E.g., UPS Logistics manages the logistics of 4.5M Ford vehicles, from 21 mfg. sites to 6,000 NA dealers)

27. “No longer are we only an insurance provider. Today, we also offer our customers the products and services that help them achieve their dreams, whether it’s financial security, buying a car, paying for home repairs, or even taking a dream vacation.”—Martin Feinstein, CEO, Farmers Group

28. “VISIONS OF A BRAND-NAME OFFICE EMPIRE. Sam Zell is not a man plagued by self doubt. Mr. Zell controls public companies that own nearly 700 office buildings in the United States. … Now Mr. Zell says he will transform the real estate market by turning those REITs into national brands. … Mr. Zell believes [clients] will start to view those offices as something more than a commodity chosen chiefly by price and location.”—New York Times (12.16.2001)

29. Omnicom: 57% (of $6B) from marketing services

30. HP. Sun. IBM. GE/PS. GE/IS. (GE/AE. GE/MD.) UTC. Farmers. Delphi. UPS/ FedEx/ Ryder. Springs. Omnicom. IDEO. Accenture. Equity Office Properties. RCI. Etc. Etc.

31. Message AIA: Eat Or Be Eaten.

32. PSF’s New “Product”/Bottom Line: The … ENCOMPASSING EXPERIENCE.

33. “Experiencesare as distinct from services as services are from goods.”Joseph Pine & James Gilmore, The Experience Economy: Work Is Theatre & Every Business a Stage

34. Experience: “Rebel Lifestyle!”“What we sell is the ability for a 43-year-old accountant to dress in black leather, ride through small towns and have people be afraid of him.”Harley exec, quoted in Results-Based Leadership

35. “The [Starbucks] Fix” Is on …“We have identified a ‘third place.’ And I really believe that sets us apart. The third place is that place that’s not work or home. It’s the place our customers come for refuge.”Nancy Orsolini, District Manager

36. “Club Med is more than just a ‘resort’; it’s a means of rediscovering oneself, of inventing an entirely new ‘me.’ ”Source: Jean-Marie Dru, Disruption

37. The “Experience Ladder”Experiences ServicesGoods Raw Materials

38. 1940: Cake from flour, sugar (raw materials economy): $1.001955: Cake from Cake mix (goods economy): $2.001970: Bakery-made cake (service economy): $10.001990: Party @ Chuck E. Cheese (experience economy) $100.00

39. Message:“Experience” is the “Last 80%”P.S.: “Experience” applies to allwork!

40. Consequences for the built environment: Richter 8.4Time frame: 0 - 10 years.

41. E.g.: Welcome to the Age of Turnkey Lifetime Facilities Management Service Package [EXPERIENCE!] Provision?Only Question:Who’s in charge? The Architects? The mega-CAEs? Accenture et al.? EOP?

42. “But, Tom, we’re already doing ‘it.’ ”

43. TP conclusion/question:You offer lots of services (“hodgepodge” comes to mind”), but do you have a “coherent experience message” ?????

44. “They [consumer goods company] have acquired a bunch of products, which is what everyone is doing.But what’s the point, the message, the story line, the Big Idea that makes ‘it’ all hang together?”—Exec, major consumer goods company

45. Bonus Rant:“Experience” and … Architecture

46. “Experience” = 98% Interior & Landscaping.

47. Duh: We “Live” in interiors.

48. Enemy No. 1: Sterile, inhuman

49. Influences: Jane Jacobs … Christopher Alexander … Don Norman

50. “In this book, ‘It won a prize’ is the ultimate insult.”—Don Norman, The Design of Everyday Things (DN: Prize-worthiness is inversely proportional to live-ability)