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Lessons from the past decade for post-2015 aid financing Pauline Rose Mokoro , Oxford

Lessons from the past decade for post-2015 aid financing Pauline Rose Mokoro , Oxford 24 January, 2014. Aid to education decreased for the first time in 2011. 16. 14.4. 14.4. 13.4. 14. 12.5. 12.3. 11.4. 12. Basic education. 5.7. 5.6. 10.2. Secondary education. 5.4. 10. 9.2.

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Lessons from the past decade for post-2015 aid financing Pauline Rose Mokoro , Oxford

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  1. Lessons from the past decade for post-2015 aid financing Pauline Rose Mokoro, Oxford 24 January, 2014

  2. Aid to education decreased for the first time in 2011 16 14.4 14.4 13.4 14 12.5 12.3 11.4 12 Basic education 5.7 5.6 10.2 Secondary education 5.4 10 9.2 5.3 5.0 8.9 Post-secondary education 5.1 8 4.7 2.5 2.5 6.7 4.2 2.2 4.4 2.0 2.0 6 1.7 2.7 Constant 2011 US$ billions 1.3 1.4 4 1.2 1.1 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.2 5.1 4.6 4.2 2 3.6 3.3 3.0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

  3. Aid to basic education decreased for 19 low income countries in 2011 Bangladesh Afghanistan Mozambique Haiti Mali D. R. Congo. Tanzania Malawi Uganda Liberia Madagascar Somalia Sierra Leone Tajikistan Mauritania Chad Guinea-Bissau Comoros D. P. R. Korea. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 Constant 2011 US$ millions 2010 2011

  4. Nine of the 15 largest donors reduced aid for basic education to LICs in 2011 350 2010 300 2011 250 200 150 100 Constant 2011 US$ millions 50 0 IMF World Bank (IDA) AfDF Japan France Canada Norway Sweden Germany Denmark Netherlands United States EU Institutions United Kingdom AsDB Special Funds

  5. Wide variations between donors channeling aid to education via governments Total United States Germany Spain Recipient government France Donor government Unspecified public sector Norway Multilateral Netherlands NGOs & Civil Society Australia Other Canada United Kingdom Japan 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Share of how education aid is channelled

  6. Earmarked bilateral aid channeled through multilaterals large for UNICEF 800 700 600 USD million (constant 2011 prices) UNICEF 500 World Bank - IDA 400 EU Institutions Asian Development Bank 300 African Development Bank 200 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

  7. Donors to education are not evenly spread across countries 24 23 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 20 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 16 16 6 14 14 13 13 13 13 6 5 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 2 4 4 3 0 India Kenya Uganda Ethiopia Tanzania D. R. Congo Bangladesh Afghanistan Mozambique Number of donors D. P. R. Korea The Gambia Mali Togo Haiti Chad Niger Nepal Benin C. A. R. Yemen Eritrea Liberia Guinea Nigeria Malawi Burundi Rwanda Somalia Pakistan Comoros Myanmar Tajikistan Cambodia Zimbabwe Kyrgyzstan Philippines Sierra Leone Madagascar Burkina Faso Cote d'Ivoire Guinea-Bissau Significant partnerships Non significant partnerships

  8. Number of significant aid relations in education for UNICEF low 100% 1 12 90% 7 80% 49 62 70% 60% 50% 11 52 40% 22 30% 57 54 20% 10% 0% As a proportion of total recipients who receive education aid from donor AsDB AfDF/ AfDB EU Institutions UNICEF World Bank Significant partnerships Non significant partnerships

  9. Extending goals to lower secondary widens finance gap to $38 billion Remaining financing gap 7.6 Government: Increase tax base 9.9 Donors: Meet 0.7% target 1.3 Financing gap US $38 billion Donors: Reallocate student imputed costs 3.1 Government: Prioritise basic education 9.8 Donors: Prioritise basic & lower secondary education 6.1

  10. Targets for 2015 must be set so no one is left behind due to lack of resources After 2015, financing targets should be set for countries to allocate: • at least 6% of GNP on education; only 41 had reached this level by 2011 • at least 20% of their budget on education; only 25 had reached this level by 2011 Financing targets should also apply to aid donors so that all funders are held to account for their promises.

  11. www.efareport.unesco.org Blog: efareport.wordpress.com #Teachlearn / @efareport

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